Monday, March 31, 2008

Game 1 Review

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 4 Chicago Cubs 3

Players of the Game:
Kosuke Fukudome: 3/3; BB, 2B, HR and 3 RBIs
Tony Gwynn Jr: 2/3; SF, Sac Bunt, Sliding Catch, SB

Game Recap:
In what was seriously the most annoying Opening Day game that I can remember, the game started off with a 40 minute rain delay that should have been avoided by the indecisive Wrigley Field grounds Crew. Nevertheless, the game started off slow... really slow, even though both Sheets and Zambrano were absolutely ridiculous out there. For two and a half innings, the Brewers and Cubs had combined for two hits and two walks, before another rain delay. When they returned, they finished the third and went on to duel for another three innings until some disappointing action began.

At the time, Gameday Audio for MLB.com decided it didn't have enough bandwidth to stream the game, leaving me to ESPN.com play by plays, but looking at the text just makes me sick. Bill Hall ripped a one out double off the wall in left. After one pick-off move and a 2-2 count, Zambrano picked off Billy Hall at 2nd base. Are you kidding me Billy?! Not only do you get an out, you save Zambrano at least four more pitches, when he's pitching absolutely unconscious. You're lucky Zambrano cramped up right after that because heads were gonna role.

The bottom half of the inning was just as mind boggling. Ben Sheets cam out with about 92 pitches, which is fine. After what sounded like some pretty wild pitching, Sheets got past Aramis Ramierez with a harmless fly out, putting him at 98 pitches with Kosuke Fukudome up. Now, it didn't hurt the Brewers, but as it was happening, I was doing my best not to scream at the computer to put Brian Shouse in. At this point, Fukudome had walked and doubled off the wall on Sheets, and now Sheeter is missing over the plate. The first pitch was a solid groundball up the middle, putting a runner in a close game. And like Ned always does, he waited until the damage is done and puts in Salomon Torres, who promptly plunks Mark DeRosa.

It seemed like Torres really couldn't control his fastball, and things were looking a little bleak. Enter Jason Kendall and maybe respect from Brewers; fans who saw him get on once and sac over Craig Counsell to third base later in the game. The biggest thing he did though was pick off Fukudome as he leaned off of third base. Soto walked during this AB, but the throw out saved Torres from a 1 out bases loaded jam. Instead he induced a ground out to finish a very exciting 7th.

Marmol and Mota mowed down the batters in the 8th leading to the most worrisome inning on a global level for Crew Fans. Rickie Weeks was plunked by Ryan Dempster to open the inning and was immediately bunted over on a two strike sacrifice by Tony Gwynn Jr. After an intentional walk to Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun promptly singled Rickie in with a solid line drive base hit. Corey Hart followed with a two run double to the right field corner, for a 3-0 lead. And then $10 million happened. Eric Gagne gave up a single and a walk to Derek Lee and Aramis Ramiez before Japan happened. A 3-Run Homerun by Kosuke Fukudome tied the game up at three and the Cubs still had three outs left. Thankfully Gagne realized the pressure was off and finished the inning without giving up another run.

Of all people to come through for the Brewers int the 10th inning, it was Craig Counsell who smashed a double to open the tenth against poor Bob Howry. An sac bunt by Kendall moved him to third and a sac fly by Tony Gwynn Jr. made the game 4-3 after Weeks was hit by yet another pitch. A solid 1-2-3 tenth from David Riske finished a 4-3 victory.

The Game Changing Play:
Regardless of whether or not it led to the win, Rickie Weeks getting plunked to start the 9th really had an impact on getting the Brewers started. Rickie really didn't have a choice on the matter, but pushing him to second on the bunt, an intentional walk and two straight hits pushed the Brewers over the top, even if Gagne exploded in his first game. Kendall catching Fukudome off second is a close second.


Predictions Good:
So far so good. The Brewers struggled awfully with poor ABs against Carlos Z and Carlos Marmol, but they managed to smoke Wood and Bob Howry. The Brewers were most productive when Rickie Weeks got on to the base pads and the Cubs Fukudome was the only superstar for the Cubbies today. At this point I hope I'm wrong on the series record. After taking the first of three, you always have to expect winning the series.

What's on tap?:
This Wednesday Jeff Suppan takes on lefty Ted Lilly who struggles mightily against the Brewers. If Soup can get his groundballs he will be quite effective, but I think the Cubs won't slump for very long. Lilly's bad luck against the Brewers can't last forever, but how about for Wedneday? That's 1 out of 162.

Brief Analysis tomorrow. Let's go Crew!

Opening Series Preview: Brewers @ Cubs

And it's time. The time to stop making excuses. The time where guys stop just working on their fundamentals and start applying them. The time to prove what you're really made of. And for the Brewers, it's the time to defy every expert, whom all seem to say 89 wins and second in the NL Central. And for me, it's time to be more efficient with this thing. For the next two months, I will be doing everything I can to watch and analyze every game, while giving you a preview before every series. It's a daunting task, but hopefully you will all appreciate the effort. Please pass along the blog to your friends and please feel free to comment and/or ask questions. The more I go through the motions, the more knowledgeable I become, and the more capable I will be as a fan and as a blogger. On to the series preview...

March 31sth - April 3rd
Match-up: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Location: Wrigley Field

Who's on tap?
March 31st Ben Sheets vs. Carlos Zambrano
April 2nd Jeff Suppan vs. Ted Lilly
April 3rd Dave Bush vs. Ryan Dempster

Who should you watch?
Everybody and their mother will say Ben Sheets, Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder for the Brewers and Carlos Zambrano for the Cubs. Well, they're fun to watch, but you really should watch Kosuke Fukudome and Rickie Weeks. You may not know it yet, but it's likely that these teams; seasons are hinged on the performances of these two potential superstars. Fukudome has a ton to prove about his power and his ability to hit major league pitching. He raked in Spring Training, but the regular season is a whole other cup of tea. Rickie Weeks stumbled mightily this spring, leading the Brewers with the most errors and failing to show the power he had last September. Nevertheless, Weeks and Fukudome and both poised to help carry their respective teams over the top. If either struggles, expect the rest of their team to do the same.

What are the keys to victory?
For the Brewers it's going to be quality ABs. Zambrano has a ridiculous problem with command, but when he's on, he's absolutely lights out. If he's in between, it's your job to wait for your pitch. When he gets behind, you know he's going to try for that inside fastball. If he gets it over the plate, you're in. Walks will be important this series. Let's hope the Brewers realize that. For the Cubs, it's pitching. Those guys are going to hit. Very few people understand the potential the Cubs lineup has. With the exception of Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa and Felix Pie, the Cubs have homerun and quality AB potential all over the place. But if their pitchers have a problem keeping their guys on the field for the long periods of time, the psyche of their players will dwindle greatly. A mysterious bullpen filled with Marmol, Sean Marshall, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz and Kerry Wood, leaves many questions. If their starters can get them through seven innings, they should be solid with Marmol and Wood at the back end. Marshall and Wuertz are a little suspect though, and may be vulnerable, but looking at their numbers, they could be the strongest part of this team with the rest of their middle relief core. Let's just hope they fall apart this season.

Predictions
It's hard to say this, but the Brewers will not win this series. I fully expect them to take at least one game and that's going to be the opener today or tomorrow, pending the weather. The second game will be a battle between Suppan and Lilly, but I think the Brewers will struggle at the plate in a tight and low scoring game. And in the final game, I think it's going to be a bloodbath. Dempster and Bush are going to get lit up. There's definite potential for Brewers to win this game, and take the series, but Bush needs to pitch reasonable and not give up the big inning, that being four runs in the first. This teams confidence is fragile, no matter what they say. When they get down, they get down on themselves. If they can stay away from that, it's going to be an exciting season.

LET'S GO CREW!

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Where I get my information

I should by all means be working on spectral simulations at my desk, but with the Brewers game coming on in 3o minutes, I thought I'd take this time to divulge the lot of my many resources. In a way it feels like I'm giving people a reason not to read my posts, but I also know that I'm not always on top of things, especially when work gets a bit buys. This way, people will know where they can go if they're bored and want to check out some statistics or background stories.

The first site I always go to is MLB.com. Yes, it's the obvious one, but many people don't realize how valuable it can be because of its user friendly nature. About 95% of the numbers I obtained for the pitcher durability story was found in the historical statistics feature. Additional information regarding player backgrounds can be found in the player bio section for a year by year run down.

However, I rarely use MilwaukeeBrewers.com. While Mr. McCalvey does an excellent job maintaining the site and keeping it up to date, he hardly has any solid insight, that blows my mind, then again neither does Tom Haudricourt.

JSonline is a pretty solid website that is pretty much on the ball with everything. 99% of the time, they're the first to release roster moves and contract signings. However, Tom tends to play the homer a bit and leaves the opinion articles to the more risque writers at the Sentinel. Nevertheless, Tom contributes quality quotes and other news well before MilwaukeeBrewers.com, but the two often repeat each other because they both get the same interview. MilwaukeeBrewers.com's only benefit is quality video clips of exclusive interviews with players after the game.

Additional Brewer sites that I go to every now and then are the ESPN team website for contract and salary information or foxsports.com for some additional videos from players. I don't really like listening to Ken Rosenthal, so I usually avoid Fox Sports when I can.

As for statistics, scouting reports and quality projections, I refer to Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus. BP is a modern minded look at baseball that dredges through millions and millions of statistics and develops some of their own to determine the quality of players. Ultimately, they discuss the ceilings of their players based on their age history and basic skills. It's pretty interesting, but you have to be careful not to buy into everything they tell you. BR, on the other hand is basically a comprehensive statistical encyclopedia of every player and the numbers they recorded during the entire time in professional baseball, minor leagues included. It affords statistics that may be difficult to find on MLB.com or BP, in a relatively user friendly matter. I have yet to master it's entire power yet, and hope to in the near future because there are things I find important that others may not.

Other sites I check out for news and rumors include: Pro Sports Daily, MLB Trade Rumors, and Brewerfan.net. Hope this is helpful to any one looking into sports as much as I do.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

And I was wrong

Eric Munson was cut this morning (thank God), leaving Mike Rivera to fill the final roster spot for the Milwaukee Brewers. I'm not a fan of Eric Munson, but I thought he hit his way on to the team this spring, while Mike Rivera floundered considerably. But when push comes to shove, a solid arm behind the plate will pay off during Sunday games. Boy was I wrong on this one. Just goes to show, we fans don't know everything.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Vargas Released?

In what everyone is calling a surprise move, the Milwaukee Brewers simply released right handed pitcher Claudio Vargas today. It's frustrating that we got nothing for him, but according to Yost, the market really wasn't biting. My co-worker suggests the Red Sox could really use him because they are buried in injuries right now. Even though he cleared waivers, expect Vargas to be picked up quickly and the Brewers' financial losses to be minimal. Maybe I'll go more into this later, but there's not much to say. Best of luck to you Claudio. You looked poised to have a break out year.

Oh and GO VILLANUEVA AND PARRA! Finally management has made a stand to stick with these young guys. McClung is still out there though, so moves may still be on the horizon.

Odds and Ends

It seems like forever since my last post, but March Madness and weekend trips to the my home town for Easter and godfather duties have been a bit much, putting this bad boy on the back burner. But never fear, when the season comes, I will be in full force trying to analyze every game I can get to or watch. If things go as planned, I will be going to another 40 games this year, and setting up about two rather big groups of about 50 each, so I'll be doing my part to up this team's payroll.

But this blog isn't about me, it's about our own Milwaukee Brewers, and as Spring Training dwindles down, guys are at wits end trying to make the final roster spots. Unsurprisingly, two guys have shined at their respective positions. My boy Carlos Villanueva, has really pitched himself into the rotation with a 2.50 ERA in 18.0 IP, including 13 Ks and 5 BBs. A quality start today, should really seal the deal as this team's #4. If it doesn't, I really have a big problem with the management of this team. With almost two quality years of service for this team, and the experience gained during last year's pennant race for 5 starts, Carlos shouldn't even have to fight for his job. It should be handed to him like it was handed to an injured Yovani Gallardo.

The other standout this spring, is the scrawny guy out in center field. When I first started this blog, I posted a rather extensive free agent list of guys we should or shouldn't get, and in the end, I went against the numbers and really just wanted Tony Gwynn Jr. to be our every day center fielder. Well, he may just be that for the first 25 games of the season. TG is batting an impressive .400/.462/.556 this spring with four stolen bases, six walks and only two strikeouts. This is what I want from a starter. He's not going to give you the power other CF's might, but a .300/.360/.470 line would be quite alright with me, especially if he strikes out fewer the 70 times. Yost refuses to say that he's the guy, but don't fret, he'll be patrolling the ivy next Monday in Chicago.

As for the rest of the spots, Joe Dillon has pretty much wrapped up his bid as the utility OF/IF, Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross should seal up the outfield while Cameron is out and Eric Munson probably solidified his chances as yet another below average back-up catcher. Sorry Mike Rivera, you just didn't perform this Spring.

Then there's the bullpen and the rotation. Parra, Bush, Vargas and McClung are all fighting for spots while Capuano fights for a stronger ligament in his throwing shoulder, or at this point, an in tact ligament would due. I feel for the guy, but at least he's going to get paid a couple hundred thousand dollars to rehab. Manny Parra has struggled his last two outings, giving up 13 runs in just 6.2 innings. The problem: control. Parra walked four batters in the first two innings yesterday, and the result was a 4-run first, a la Dave Bush. Parra should get one more chance to throw in the exhibition game at Miller Park (Which I should be attending). A strong outing won't make or break Parra because there's no point of bringing the guy on the plane unless he's already on the roster. Because McClung and Vargas don't have options, Parra is likely to be the odd man out here. An injury or trade will result in his immediate recall and final placement on the roster.

Dave Bush has tried his darnedest to not be the early bird bust, but has yet to have a flawless outing like the rest of the guys in this group. Even in his solid start last week, he started with a 2-run first, but was boosted by his teammates who came back with three quick ones. From there he settled down and pitched well. I've come to the conclusion that no matter how bad Bush pitches, he's this team's #5 and that's frustrating because he's like the 9th best pitcher on this team in my book. But he's serviceable and will be named a quality pitcher because of his win total.

Vargas has pitched well for most of the spring with two rough outings marred by his control issues and inability to stay on the attack. Nevertheless, something tells me Vargas is not to far from finding it. In an interview a couple of weeks ago he mentioned going to see a psychologist of some kind so that he can work on the mental aspect of his game. In the first televised spring game this year, he looked unbelievable. I wasn't sure if it was Kendall calling changeup after changeup, but they were pretty. If he can keep the pitch count down and stop giving charity, this kid might be a damn good pitcher.

6 days away every one and the Cub Massacre of 2008 starts.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Some good stuff

There's an article over at baseballprospectus.com that's really encouraging. If you have a subscription, check it out. For those who can't, here's a few quotes.


"In major league history, how many teams have had four starting infielders (min: 100 G) who were 24 or younger? Try none. How many teams have had three starting infielders who were 24 or younger? Again, try none."

"With the youngest infield in major league history, the Brewers missed the playoffs by two games. That entire infield returns, albeit in a new defensive alignment that’s probably worth 30 or 40 runs."

And finally, "The NL Central is officially on notice: the Brewers are here to stay."

(Quotes taken from Rany Jazayerli at BaseballProspectus.com)

Thursday, March 13, 2008

A New Era of Pitching

One of my most frequent readers made an interesting point on Wednesday regarding the coddling of pitchers and the idea of a six man rotation. Baseball is changing, constantly. It's a train that appears to be at a standstill, but if you wait long enough, you'll realize you're at a new depot and didn't even get a chance to look at the scenery. That pretty much describes today's change in pitching philosophy and care.

Just to get a gauge of how insanely different pitchers of this era are to the old days, at the age of 22, Babe Ruth pitched 326.3 innings (Mickey Lolich of the Detroit Tigers pitched 376 innings in 1971 for the Tigers. Holy crap) for a damn good Boston team, starting 41 games, winning 24 of them and amassing a healthy 2.01 ERA. 35 of those, were complete games. Yes, COMPLETE games, though the Babe stopped pitching two years later. Last year, Dontrelle Willis started the most games of any one with 35, and Roy Halladay pitched the most complete games with 7, and the next guy beyond him has 4. Are these guys weak? Or has the game itself changed?

Well, a little bit of both in my book. Guys throw harder now, and they throw a lot more junk, but the counter argument is that we know a lot more about physiology now. Guys know how to recuperate faster and have state of the art equipment to accelerate the healing process, rather then just beer, cigarettes and the ice you kept the beer in. But there's a counter argument, and his name is Nolan Ryan, but don't worry, I'll look at others too.

Nolan Ryan had a 27 year career in the bigs, carrying a sub 4.00 ERA in every single year, but one, which was his last. All in all, he pitched in 5,386 innings, appearing in 807 games, threw 222 complete games and 61 shutouts. Now, Nolan Ryan throws straight gas, and you can't deny that. He's a Hall of Famer, so people can call him an anomaly if they want, but Ryan pitched for over 270 innings five times in his career, over 300 innings twice, however, he still managed a 27 year career, with injuries scattered about in there as age and the innings increased. The argument starts to get a little clearer for innings limit around 1973-1975. In '73 and '74, Nolan Ryan pitched 326 and 332.2 innings respectively. He followed this with 198 innings in 1975, which I'm sad to say, I don't know why, but Ryan only pitched in 28 games, so injury was clearly the problem.

Ryan was a HOFer. How about a non-HOFer, say Mickey Lolich of Detroit Tiger's lore. Lolich was a pitcher for the Tigers from 1963-1975, followed by three short seasons with the Padres and Mets. Baseball-reference.com describes Mickey as having a top-notch fastball that has made him the top left-handed strikeout pitcher ever. With that in mind, Mickey piched 3,638 innings in just 16 years. He pitched more than 300 innings four times, all back to back, and even followed that up with 240 inning season. He pitched 195 complete games, with 41 shutouts, and yet he is not in the HOF.

After looking at these two players and really thinking about it, I've realized that this game has turned more into a business than ever before. In years past, you can't help, but be convinced that these guys threw just as hard, played more games and perhaps in shorter time frames. Hell, Mickey Lolich pitched three complete games in the 1968 World Series and only gave up five runs. So something is different. Something must be very different to see what we see now.

If you go from season to season starting in 1970, you will see that pitchers of the 70's had a limit of 300-360 innings per year, but after 1980, not one pitcher has surpassed the 300 inning mark. From 1980 to 1988, the max innings pitched was around the 280-295 mark and stayed there pretty consistently. In the 90's, it was around 265 innings. In this age, you're looking at no more than 250 IP in the last three years. In fact, only two pitchers have pitched for 270 innings in the last 18 years, those being Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson in 1991 and 1999. GMs are trying to protect their guys as much as possible from the injury bug, but it's almost as if these guys are getting more hurt now than the guys in the 1970's even though they pitch almost 100 innings less a year, or 200 if you're Ben Sheets.

Bluntly speaking, some of these guys are just wusses, while others are just unlucky, get tired too fast or don't have it in them to maintain control with high pitch counts. I wish I could get pitch counts for all these guys. I have a feeling the 100 pitch limit didn't matter to them then. At the same time though, the talent pool in those days was a lot smaller. There weren't thousands of kids trying out and playing minor or amateur pro leagues all over, which brings me to my final discussion of a ridiculously long post.

I understand the concept of the 6-man rotation, but I beg the question, is the talent pool really good enough to have a 6-man rotation? Think about all the five starters out there right now. None of them are particularly exciting. Do you really want to see Jorge De La Rosa pitch just as often as Gil Meche? And does tapering the innings for starting pitchers even more, effect their injury rate? The numbers really suggest no. The pitch limit for minor leaguers and growing men is understandable. You can seriously stunt their growth or cause abnormal growth, but grown men have the ability to prepare their body for anything. If man could pitch 300 innings in 1969 with no such thing as a hot tub in the clubhouse or an ultrasound in the training room or a bikes just behind the dugout, why can't someone do it now.

Let's hear your thoughts.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Ring one up for the kid!

Well, it's only the fourth inning, but Villanueva is all but guaranteeing himself a spot in that rotation after giving up no runs, one hit and no walks with one strikeout so far. Come on Yost. Don't screw this up now. I would be super pumped if both Villanueva and Parra got into this rotation.

I can't believe it!

Is it possible that somebody has the balls to give the Brewers and Doug Melvin some props. In an article today at MLB.com, Tom Singer suggests the Crew has the 4th best bullpen in the majors. Holy crap. Hell is here and it has frozen over. It's about time people realize that all of these guys can still pitch. Singer is right in saying a lot rides on Gagne and Mota, but if they just have average seasons, this bullpen is probably still in the top 10 overall. Good stuff.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Clawing for Roster Spots

As Spring Training quietly wanes away and the candles begin to dim, a few guys are still brighter than ever and fighting emphatically to win their spot on the roster. It seems many of us have forgotten that this roster is far from set in stone, especially in the outfield, behind the plate and in the bullpen. Here's a quick run down of the production in these positions so far. Based on their performances, Yost shouldn't have too hard of a time.

Back-up Catcher:

Mike Rivera: .182/.231/.182
Eric Munson: .455/.500/.727
Vinny Rottino: .308/.308/.692

Okay, wow. Munson is just going off. Considering how awful he has been the last three years, you can't help but think he's acting quite out of character right now. He's got three doubles and eight walks already in only 19 plate appearances. Mike Rivera is playing himself out of a roster spot altogether. He had one solid year with the Crew two years ago, and though I still like him on this team, he needs to show Ned something. At this point, I'd be okay to toss him based solely on performance. Vinny Rottino has shown exceptional progress behind the plate after winter ball. He really needs to work the count a little more, but his slugging is healthy. A month ago I don't think I would put Munson on this roster, but if he continues to perform... you never know. That's the beauty of Spring Training.

Outfielders:

Tony Gwynn Jr: .333/.462/.667
Gabe Kapler: .333/.375/.476
Gabe Gross: .190/.320/.524
Ryan Braun: .333/.464/.810
Corey Hart: .241/.241/.345
Mike Cameron: .350/.500/.700

I'm very very encouraged by every one this group except for Corey Hart, who has yet to take a walk this Spring. I'm most encouraged by Gwynn, Braun and Cameron. Gwynn is showing that he can take a pitch, he can steal a base, and more importantly, he can slug at a pretty high rate without hitting HRs. ROY Ryan Braun has showed unbelievable patience this Spring, walking nine times in 30 plate appearances, though he has yet to try and steal a base. For a guy who said he wants to work on improving his OBP and pitch selection, it appears the work is paying off. I think the most impressive thing about Braun's numbers is the improved OBP combined with his sustained slugging percentage. You don't see a guys OPS surpass 1.200 very often even with this small sample size. Mike Cameron has been just as selective, which is a joy to see. Additionally, the new team is treating him well as far as his slugging goes. The most important thing for Mike though: 6 BB/ 1 SO. That's what I'm talking about.

The Bullpen?:

Chris Narveson: 1.00 ERA in 9.0 IP 7 K 5 BB
Carlos Villanueva: 1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP 3 K 3 BB
Randy Choate: 0.00 ERA in 4.0 IP 1 K 0 BB
Manny Parra: 1.00 ERA in 9.0 IP 8 K 1 BB
Claudio Vargas: 2.70 ERA in 9.0 IP 5 K 3 BB
Luis Pena: 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP 4 K 3 BB
Zach Jackson: 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP 3 K 1 BB
Dave Bush: 10.00 ERA in 9 IP 6 K 5 BB
Chris Capuano: 18.00 ERA in 4.0 IP 2 K 1 BB

Well, one thing is very clear. Manny Parra is out-pitching everyone. Will he get a roster spot? Yost keeps suggesting no, but I don't understand how you can't give the guy a legitimate shot. He's been lights out. He's healthy, and he's got the best stuff of anybody in that group. I wish Villanueva did, but he's more of a cerebral pitcher who uses location and off speed pitches to catch hitters off balance. Chris Narveson and Randy Choate are really putting the pressure on Vargas, Bush and Capuano. Vargas is the only one who hasn't folded yet and Cappy has a chance tomorrow to redeem his four horrendous innings. Narveson is the wild card as he has only one year of major league experience, but is finally healthy after some shoulder problems. Choate has pretty much been a 4A player in my book, with little deviations here and there, so it's hard to push for him. At the same time, Zach Jackson has proved himself to be a 4A player for quite some time, but he's pushing through right now in Spring Training. Maybe one more year in the minors will prepare him for a 5 spot in this rotation next year, or perhaps the long relief and spot start role. The biggest wild card is still Luis Pena who has been impressing scouts all over the place. He has a solid 1.00 WHIP, but a scary .57 GO/AO. But if his stuff is that good, you can't help wonder how far away he is and if guys like Mota are getting nervous they might get traded yet again, though Mota has been absolutely phenomenal this Spring (0.00 ERA in 4 IP 5 K 0 BB). Nevertheless, this kid might be major league ready. Suddenly, i feel like this team has depth in the minor league system, but not in AAA. They've all been hiding in AA-Huntsville like Joe Thatcher was for so long. The bullpen should figure to be quite interesting of trades occur and/or if the remaining guys don't perform.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Parra beats Fuku-dome

I think a million people are going to have Fuk-u-dome shirts this year. Well, news on the front is Manny Parra fooled him so bad today he fell on his ass. Oh and the play by play guy referred to him as a Japanese import. Solid.

Dave 'Big Inning' Bush

Well, for a guy trying to find a spot in the rotation, Dave Bush sure knows how to tell fans that he plans on being the exact same pitcher as last year. In his first inning of action today, Bush gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk. He then followed it up by retiring 11 straight before getting pulled after the 4th inning. On an up note, he did walk and single with an RBI and a run, but this outing and his last two outings say something about Dave Bush: And that is, he's not really that consistent. He either has a mental breakdown every game or he just doesn't have the stuff to be a starting pitcher. The thing that always scared me about Bush is that his big inning often comes earlier in his pitch count, bearing his questionable value as a reliever, who only gets that one inning.

But honestly, Dave, where's the improvement? It's times like this where I wonder why the Brewers don't just demote Dave Bush and Capuano to make a point. They'd be two of the highest paid minor leaguers out there, but this is the big leagues damnit. Performance matters and if you decide to slack or quit on your mechanics for one inning every game, you'll never be anything, but a below average #4 pitcher.

On a much happier note, I just want to say congrats to Doug Melvin for somehow realizing that Gabe Kapler still has what it takes to play professional ball. He has been stellar all spring so far with a .368 average and some quality defense. I was pretty skeptical at first, but it appears he did it again, so his only blemish is still Craig Counsell. It can also be noted that Alcides Escobar is 2 for 3 today with two singles. If he can get his bat going a bit, there's some more money this team can save in two years to keep Hart, Weeks, Braun and Fielder.

Oh and I sent an e-mail yesterday to Adam McCalvey at the Brewers official website about Luis Pena, who has been pretty much flawless all spring, but received no response from him in the mailbag. I would like every on to implore Adam about this guy and see if we can get any information about his projections as far as his spot in a future bullpen and how far away he is. My guess is only one more year and I have him projected as a closer, but I haven't gotten to see too much of him yet. Could be fun to see him hear next year after we lose Gagne.

Gallardo's Recovery

In a video posted on MLB.com, right-handed starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo said that he just finished his second bullpen session and feels good. The clip shows him hopping around and throwing a bit, which is promising. He also reports that he's ahead of his planned recovery schedule, which is always deceiving, but the Brewers have a world-class medical staff. They were given an award just two years ago for the best in the league. Nevertheless, this is tough news for struggling pitchers like Bush and Capuano, who are gaining trade value with injuries around the league and losing rotation jobs after every earned run. But it's more important to note that this is a big boost to the Brewers' starting rotation. Yo should only need a couple of rehab innings to get to full strength, but they'll probably take precautions to make sure the injury doesn't resurface.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Sunday Recap

In an article I wrote on Thursday, I went out of my way to discuss non-roster invitee, Chris Narveson. Well guess what? It looks like McCalvey is on my bandwagon over at the Brewers' official website after Narveson flew through 4 scoreless innings against the Rangers today, meaning he's pitched 9.0 innings and only given up one earned run. Don't be surprised to hear the JS start talking about him too. Sometimes all it takes is a healthy spell for a guy to find his way in the bigs. Just ask Salomon Torres. Nevertheless, he's going to make it hard on guys like Vargas, Capuano and Bush, who are clear trade bait since they've been struggling this Spring. Though Vargas pitched a healthy 5.0 scoreless/hitless innings today against the Mariners, including an 0 for 2 for Ichiro Suzuki. He must have had some nasty stuff and finally good control. Throw in two scoreless innings from Gagne and Turnbow, with no walks from either, and the pitcher's rocked today.

Looks like things are coming around as they let their arms go a bit. A little less that 22 days til Opening Day. Can you feel it?

Friday, March 7, 2008

Today's game

In an incredible comeback today, the Brewers won 9-8 after being down 6-0. Oh and they walked 7 times and got 11 hits. That's much better.

Open Competition?

In a note by Tom Haudricourt today he relayed a quote by Ned Yost, which read, "Asked again Thursday if past success counted for more than current showings, Yost said, 'A little bit. It sure does.' I just want to yell, scream, kick and gnash my teeth. Haurdricourt poses the question, if this is a win now attitude, can you really qualify not starting your best five guys? It's an excellent question, and if the Brewers don't win this year with a rotation that let's Bush, Capuano and Vargas pitch, there's only one culpable character in this soap opera.

As we all know, I'm Carlos Villanueva homer, but I don't want to cloud the issue. Yost basically said that last years performance is making it really hard for anyone to break into the rotation. Well, let's allow the numbers to do their magic.

Dave Bush 12-5 Record 186.1 IP 5.12 ERA 134 Ks 44 BBs 1.40 WHIP
Spring Training: 5 IP 12.60 ERA

Chris Capuano 5-12 Record 150 IP 5.10 ERA 132 Ks 54 BBs 1.49 WHIP
Spring Training: 2 IP 9.00 ERA

Carlos Villanueva 8-5 Record 114.1 IP 3.94 ERA 99 Ks 53 BBs 1.35 WHIP
Spring Training: 2 IP 0.00 ERA

Who do you want in your starting rotation?

Thursday, March 6, 2008

13 Pitchers: Oops.

Things are getting pretty hectic around here lately, and posts are becoming difficult to come by, but they will continue nevertheless, even though I am unable to listen to any of the Spring games for now. Anyways, in an article by Adam McCalvey yesterday there was a suggestion that the Brewers would consider breaking camp with 13 pitchers instead of 12. Well, oops on my part. In my projection of the 25-man roster on opening day, I suggested that the Brewers may even neglect the 12th pitcher because of the overwhelming right handedness of the team as well as the need to fill gaps in center field according to matchups. I guess Yost has a different idea, and for once, it makes complete sense.

In Yost's eyes, every single one of his position players is going to play in at least 150 games this year, provided they stay healthy. As a result, he will need fewer defensive switches and can offer himself more opportunities at the pitching level. I'm not that in favor of giving Yost more chips to play with, but I'm sure Yost enjoys it, so it makes sense. There's two bigger factors though. The first comes by way of someone like Claudio Vargas, who pretty much knows he's on the trade block. Nevertheless, he will be able to increase his trade value by pitching at the big league level and still get paid good money. On the other hand, if Claudio gets moved later in camp, the Brewers have three left-handed pitchers just waiting to show their talent: Manny Parra, Randy Choate and Chris Narveson.

Everyone knows who Choate and Parra are since Parra is a highly touted prospect and Choate's signing was given a little bit of ink, but nobody remembers tall and lanky Chris Narveson, who formerly played for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. If there's a dark horse anywhere on this team, it lies within this non-roster invitee. Narveson has only seen 9.1 innings of major league action and has struggled mightily with shoulder injuries in the last two years, which is why he wasn't signed by anyone last year. Nevertheless, in 5.0 innings of pitching in spring he has allowed only 1 run to cross the plate, but has a WHIP of nearly 2, with 5 Ks. Nevertheless, there are only two left handed pitches slated for the roster in Shouse and Capuano. Parra will not break camp with the team because of the depth he offers in the starting rotation. As a result, they'll keep him stretched out in the minors if there's a mishap. Randy Choate on the other hand is a lefty reliever who has pitched 3.0 scoreless innings this spring and poses the biggest threat. If he can somehow prove that he is a quality LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY), there's a chance he'll make the squad as well, but there's a lot of time left for these guys to make a run.

Oh, and Bush proved he's one big inning guy again, even if Nunez was mostly responsible for it.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Gwynn Trying

The little guy just won't give up, and with a lot of interest in Gabe Gross, it's good see him step up. Even though he has an error today, Gwynn already has a lead-off triple and a 2-run homer of Sean Gallagher. Is that power the Brewers for hoping for gonna be there? I doubt it, but it might be enough to get him a solid back up spot this year and the starting job next year. Let's keep it going Tony.

Thank God!

Yes, thank God Brett Favre has finally retired. Surprised to hear that from a Green Bay Packer season ticket holder? Well you should be and you shouldn't be. In my life, I have never veered away from my love for the Packers, but there's a realistic side to me that people mistake as being a fair weather fan. Mostly that side is just pure pessimism, not being a poor fan. I still cheer for my team, but my knowledge of sports is pretty proficient and always has been, so when players dwindle or hurt their team, they get no free passes. So is the case with my love/hate attitude towards future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre.

First off all, I didn't even want to write this up, but the media is a joke and actually interviewed Brewers today about what they thought of the retirement. Seriously, that's enough. Keep football in football and ask those men what actually matters and what you're actually supposed to be covering.

I never used to hate Brett. When he first came to GB, if you met him, he was kind of a prick, but not Sterling Sharpe prick, just smug. Thankfully that changed once he got some playing time and some money. Nevertheless, from 1992 until about 2002-2003, I was the biggest Brett Favre fan. I remember all the crazy/stupid throws that he made, and they were fun to watch, but as Brett evolved as a quarterback, the stupid throws diminished greatly, while the crazy ones stuck around. As a result, he earned himself a Super Bowl Championship and three MVP awards. But in 2003, Brett went back to those stupid throws, even though he had 12 years of experience under his belt, and decided it was his job and his job alone to will this team to win.

That's a team job folks. This demeanor was solidified in the year that Brett essentially broke his thumb, but refused to take a game off, so as to help his team win a game and more importantly maintain his record of consecutive starts. (For those who claim the record didn't matter to him, note breaking every record last year, keeping everyone on offense and still retiring and then tell me that again.) Brett willed the team to a victory the following game, but was awful the rest of the year because instead of healing and giving the team a better year by only missing a game or two, he put the record and his ego first.

This was the start of the hatred that brewed for 4 more years and bled into last season, when magically Brett decided not to throw those garbage balls into triple coverage or rocket a ball through a Nerf football sized hole. The result was a majestic 13-3 season. Unfortunately, all three of the games lost were directly correlated to the ridiculous decisions made by a 16 year quarterback. In the two Chicago games, which were sad displays of football, Brett through two interceptions respectively, all four of which were not the receivers fault, but blown plays where Brett just said, "the hell with it." Then there was the Dallas game where Brett looked like a rookie QB, throwing two more picks in the first two quarters before getting hurt. Old Brett would have just went back in and kept playing, but hey, he had the records already and a playoff spot locked up. Let the kid do it. Aaron Rodgers almost pulled that game out and I'm ok that he's our QB next year.

The final loss of the 2007 season was against the now World Champion New York Giants, and do you know why they made the Super Bowl? Well it breaks down to one interception and maybe two interceptions. The first INT was in the 4th quarter, where Brett threw a lob ball to a double covered receiver. Lucky for Brett, the guy fumbled, but it killed momentum. Then OT hit and well, it's 2nd down. Your defense had just recovered from a poor third quarter to shut down Eli and the offense in the fourth quarter, even though you let your offense go three and out twice. What do you do? You throw a duck on a blown play that gets cut by the wind and essentially gives away an entire season to an ego that could have been better sated by a 3rd down attempt or a defensive hold by an improved defense. And that's why Lambeau Field became a funeral parlor as the kick went through the uprights.

Brett Favre was/is definitely one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. I can't doubt that. I have tried in the past because of the disdain I've had for the past couple of years, but you have no choice but to respect his amazing career. As a Packer fan, and a more importantly a Green Bay native, I offer my appreciation for what Brett did for not only the team, but the people in GB, who don't have much else to talk about there, but also because of the economic success he brought with it. He is undoubtedly enshrined among other Packer legends like Bart Starr and Vince Lombardi.

But now, just like for the Brewers, it's time for the kids to play, and I'm more excited to watch a new breed of football in Green Bay that doesn't hinge about one single individual.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Walks and OBP

In my notes yesterday I mentioned that the Brewers had 4 runs on 8 hits and none of them were for extra bases. Well I wanted to point out something else. The Brewers reached base 13 times in 33 plate appearances yielding a .393 OBP, which is perfect in my book. If you looked at Saturday they went 11/34 for a .323 and a loss. (16/41 on Friday for a .390 and a big loss, but they ended up giving up 11 runs)

It's not exactly an eye opening trend because people know it to be true, but the more people you get on base, the more runs you score. But think about it for a second; The Brewers only scored 4 runs with 8 hits, but their big inning came with a HBP, two walks, two singles and quality baserunning. Three free rides and no extra base hits lead to the same amount of runs as big hits, but they're a lot easier to come by, so keep getting those walks guys.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Sunday's Game Notes

Since I'm at work again today, and reading more physics and magnetic resonance stuff, I'll chime in with some notes about the game, so that people can get a little bit more information about the game rather than the minimal updates given by ESPN, JS or MLB.

1st Villanueva pitched a flawless first with a strikeout, groundout and fly out.
I missed quite a bit of the remaining sections, but Cameron and Fielder both got base hits in the bottom half, both were stranded.

2nd I caught Villanueva giving up a leadoff base hit, but he managed to get out of it unscathed followed by a 1-2-3 out for the Crew in the bottom half.

3rd Cappy pitched a flawless third, followed by a one hit (Kendall), scoreless bottom half for the Crew.

4th I caught the bottom half of the inning and Powell said that Cappy gave up 2 runs on 3 2-out hits. A tough finish to a pretty solid outing. Hopefully it was just a bit of fatigue for the start of the year. Fielder just got drilled in the right leg by a pitch from Bootcheck to open the inning. That's the second big bopper to get hit by a pitch this year. Braun got drilled two days ago. Bootcheck is apparently hurt after pitching three straight balls to Braun, so that may have had something to do with Fielder getting drilled.

Braun walks, Hart pops out in 3 pitches on what sounded like a pretty poor at bat, Hall gets ahead 3-1 in the count and walks. Abraham Nunez walks to the plate and Powell indicates that Nunez has every intention to go to AAA and play no matter what the situation is. Line drive to right center gives Nunez a 2-run single and a 2-2 game, with Hall moving to third. A quality AB and solid baserunning from Hall is always good to hear. Another base hit from Nix scores Hall and Nunez moves to third as well. That's two guys moving from first to third this inning, though Nunez was on the run during the pitch. Kendall fought a few pitches off before grounding out softly into a DP. 3-2 Crew

5th A flawless inning by Choate who is trying to find a spot in the bullpen. Lead off walk for Counsell, a jam job fastball pop up by Cameron, Fielder gets hit again, fly out for Braun, a liner from Corey scores Cousnell, but Fielder gets caught in a run down to end the inning.k

6th Luis Pena is in now. He's the wild card depth in the minors. If he can keep his fastball into the high 90s, you might see him move into a closer prospect in a year or two. A quality inning for him as he goes through a perfect outing with two groundballs and a fly out. I missed the bottom half but it looks like a hit by Nunez and no runs.

7th Big time subs start the inning as everyone gets replaced with the exception of Braun who was replaced last inning. LaPorta makes a solid catch on a long run in the sun and keeps the leadoff man on first. Powell is taking this time to praise his range as a surprise to most people since all you hear about is his power. Lindsey Gullin pitches a scoreless 7th giving up one hit. Not really an up and coming star, but he'll do some good work at AA-Huntsville.

Interesting note. The Brewers have 4 runs on 7 hits, but zero extra base hits.

Alcides Escobar is up right now. Kind of fun to hear Powell talk about this guy, but he flies out on cue. Excellent play by the third baseman robs Kapler of an infield hit bringing up Nelson who flies out to center. Still 4-2 Crew.

8th Rivera throws out a runner trying to steal 2nd to end the 8th. Bray gave up one base hit in yet another scoreless inning. Laporta grounds one into the gap for a lead off single. Sac bunt by Gwynn moves him over. No idea if it was meant to be for a hit though. Dillon pops out to the infield and Iribarren grounds out to end the inning.

9th Mota goes in the 9th. He needs to focus on location this Spring because his ball doesn't have that much movement on his ball. Starts off with a K on a 2-2 pitch. Grounder to Brad Nelson in the hole gets out two and starts 0-2 before striking out the last batter looking for a Brewer win. Very very promising from Mota. Let's hope he's got something going.

Final score 4-2 Crew!

Saturday Recap

The Crew played their third exhibition game of the Spring yesterday, and though they lost, there were some things to take note of.

1. Sheets pitched 2 perfect innings, though he only threw three offspeed pitches. Even better, 5 of his 6 outs were on the ground. This is exactly what Brewers fans want to see. This infield does have quite a bit of range, regardless of what they say about JJ and Prince, so grounders are good. Once the offspeed pitches start getting tossed, the strikeouts will come. Encouraging in the very least.

2. Only 2 walks were recorded by the Brewers. That's something that we need to work on immensely this Spring. On a positive note, JJ was one of those that drew a walk, which is something he needs to work on the most.

3. Vinny Rottino hit the only bomb for the Crew, but it was his work behind the plate that Ned was raving about. I'm telling you, this kid can play everywhere in the field, give him his shot as the backup catcher. It's an asset no other team has.

4. Two stolen bases and an aggressive hit and run call may be representative of the year to come. Hall struck out during the hit and run call but a bad toss allowed LaPorta to steal the base. Oh, and LaPorta has a couple of hits already in his first three games. Just needs to pay his dues.