Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Brewers Cubs Game 1 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 10 Chicago Cubs 7

Players of the Game:
Mike Cameron: 3/5; 2B, BB, 2 R, 2 RBIs
Mike Fontenot: 2/2; 2B, BB, 3 RBIs

Game Recap:
The frigid weather of the northern part of the US led to an ugly affair of a ball game Tuesday night. The Brewers and Cubs collectively were responsible for 17 runs, 28 hits, 12 walks and three errors. In the end, the Mike Cameron and the Brewers' bullpen prevailed, despite the Cubs valiant comeback attempt sparked by 8 walks and the bench bat of Mike Fontenot.

Mike Cameron made his arrival known in the first inning, doubling just below the basket and scoring on a sac fly by Prince Fielder, thanks to Ryan Braun's wild pitch K. This became the first push in a see-saw battle that took three hours and forty minutes, which we usually reserve for AL games. The Cubs notched two in the 2nd when DeRosa and Soto singled and were moved along by a Pie walk, which became the trend for Sheets. A ground out and a sac fly secured the two runs for the bottom half of the lineup. The Brewers answered with four hits, a sac fly in the third, but the meat of the Cubs lineup tacked on two more with a Derek Lee homerun, a couple more walks, an error and a sac fly, knotting it at four.

The Brewers continued their attack, scoring again in the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th innings to quiet the frozen crowd of Wrigley field, and deny the comeback sparked by a 3-run double from Mike Fontenot. Gagne avoided a near blow up in the ninth to finish the game and give Sheets a not so deserved win, considering his line versus his rotation partners the last two weeks (5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 2 K). That's 4-0 for the ace if you're counting.


Game Changing Play:
In the 7th inning the Brewers walked the bases with one out following two singles and a walk by Hall, Hardy and Gwynn Jr. A walk by the awful Michael Wuertz of Jason Kendall scored Hall. But the play that put it out of reach was a 2-run blooper over the head of Mike Fontenot that plated two, making it 9-4.

Predictions Half and Half:
I thought for sure tonight's game would go to the Brewers. I just didn't think it would be this ugly. Both Cameron and Fielder delivered as promised. Fielder was only 1/3, but he knocked in two and scored a run following a solid double off of John Lieber to the opposite field. Cameron was simply a beast. His fresh legs and mental state was a breath of fresh air for this squad. But don't get angry with me for being cautious. This is just one game. If this new life sticks around for a few games, maybe that chemistry thing you keep hearing about will rear it's face. Weeks, on the other hand, was pretty much awful, going 1/6 with nothing to show for it. Weeks is notoriously awful against Carlos Zambrano, batting .240/.296/.400 against him with 10 Ks and no walks in 27 PA. So he better make good tomorrow for me to be at least half right.

Notes:
- This game should have been a blowout, but taking eight walks is the reason the Cubs will always be in games no matter how far down they are. And I'll be that dead horse. If the Brewers were better than 3-4 walks a game as they have been, their record would probably be 3 or 4 games better.

- Both umps behind the plate were awful tonight. Jerry Crawfor had to leave early in the game because of health concerns, but the bottom and top of his strike zone was questionable at best. Later, Paul Nauert decided to guess at corner strikes, ring up guys on pitches off the plate and call knee high curveballs from Sheets, balls some times and strikes other. The thing is, when I say knee high, I mean when they hit the catcher's glove, which means they were perfect thigh high pitches at the plate. This is the third game this year that I can remember when the umps played a pivotal role in the game.

Who's on Tap?:
An greatly improved Jeff Suppan takes on former closer Ryan Dempster in game two on Wednesday night at Wrigley. Soup was impressive his last two starts, which leads me to believe he'll struggle tomorrow, but I'll still keep my eye on his bouts against Fukudome, since he destroyed him last game. Dempster was solid in his last outing, but has recently struggled with his command. You can't expect the Brewers to knock 17 hits a game, so some plate discipline may give the Brewers a chance to take this one tomorrow.

Brewers/Cubs Series Preview

The Series:
Milwaukee Brewers (14-11) at Chicago Cubs (16-9)

Who's on Tap?:
April 29th: Ben Sheets (3-0, 0.96 ERA) vs. Jason Marquis (1-0, 3.47 ERA)
April 30th: Jeff Suppan (1-0, 3.48 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (3-0, 2.90 ERA)
May 1st: Yovani Gallardo (1-0, 0.64 ERA) vs. Carlos Zambrano (4-1, 2.21 ERA)

Who Should You Watch?:
As always, keep your eye on Prince Fielder at Wrigley, where he bats .280/.368/.598, which includes 7 home runs in 95 PAs. The other obvious one is Mike Cameron, but don't expect too much out of him considering he only got four rehab games and batted a woeful .200. Who you should keep your eye on is Rickie Weeks. Weeks meager .191 average has fans in an uproar, but some often favorable winds at Wrigley may do Rickie some good, though his career numbers there aren't so great. But having Cameron in the two hole might force teams to pitch him a little differently, that is, they might be forced to throw a few more fastballs now that the Brewers have a power bat 1-6.

As for the Cubs, Geovany Soto is tearing the cover off the ball. Well, the entire team is, if we're being honest, but Soto has been particularly impressive, carrying a .316 BA and a .415 OBP, but let's hope his last game where he went 0/5 with 5 Ks is an indication of the future. Also, watch out for Derek Lee who has all of a sudden recovered his power stroke this year, having 7 HRs already. Toss in a .359 BA and .432 OBP, and Lee is looking at a possible repeat of his 2005 season, which Cubs fans could only hope for.

Keys to Victory:
Walks, walks and more walks. Unless there's an overwhelming change in the Brewers offensive production, they'll need to rely on walks to get baserunners at every turn because timely hitting is relatively impossible if you're batting a mere .245 at the plate. But if you can manage a few walks, a base hit and some small ball may lead to enough to runs, especially on Tuesday and Thursday. If the Brewers rely on the long ball, they will find themselves in a lot of trouble.

As has been the case for the Cubs in years past, the starters are immensely important because 80% of their bullpen is unreliable. As expected and predicted my Opening Day Series Preview, Marmol and Wood have been solid, but the likes of Michael Wuertz and Bob Howry have struggled. Marquis is hardly a strikeout pitcher, but he'll have to stay aggressive to avoid getting knocked out early either from offense, or simply by the pitch count. Dempster needs to continue to be impress. I hardly expected him to do as well as he has so far as a starting pitcher, but the three games I have seen were something to behold. And, barring his usual 1 in 5 blow up start, Carlos Zambrano should get the job done in a pretty good duel against Yovani Gallardo. I think it'll be more fun to watch these two guys swing the bats against each other.

Predictions:
Ah! I've been dreading this section. As a homer, I want to say it's a series win for the Crew, but they're playing so awful that I can't convince myself a day off and Mike Cameron will really make that much of a difference. Sheets will likely take down Jason Marquis in game one. However, after that, the Brewers get knocked down a notch. Suppan will easily get outpitched by Dempster in game two and the Brewers refuse to take walks in game three, and give away the series.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Minor League Notes

- Mike Cameron went 1 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout in yesterday's game.

- Don't be surprised to see Brad Nelson get traded if Fielder signs a long term deal this summer. He's batting .343/.403/.657 with six homeruns and 16 RBIs in AAA-Nashville. While he's another power left handed bat, he's limited to 1B or the OF. That means he's blocked by Tony Gwynn, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Matt LaPorta. He played some 3rd base last year, but struggled with 2 errors in 17 games.

- As for Mat Gamel, the promising 3rd base project with difficulties in the field, he's batting a scary .362/.423/.606 for Huntsville alongside Matt LaPorta. But he already has 3 errors in just 53 attempts. Come on Mat. Pick it up. If he can fix his throws, he could replace Bill Hall and make this the youngest successful team yet with a starting lineup of Hart, Braun, LaPorta, Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, Rottino.

- LaPorta has been just as impressive going .289/.390/.602 with six HRs and 22 RBIs. The best part, 0 errors and 5 outfield assists.

- Alcides Escobar, however, has struggled, going .265/.298/.378 and 5 errors in 70 attempts. Maybe he's not as ready as we all though. Give him some time.

- Joshua Butler, who was just traded to the Brewers for Gabe Gross, had his first appearance with Brevard Couny and tossed four scoreless, with two hits and struck out four. Don't get to excited about him until we see what he does in the second half the season. If his numbers start to dwindle, they might have to throw him relief for him to be useful.

- Tim Dillard has been pretty impressive this year for Nashville thus far. He's pitched in 7 games in relief, with a 1.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 15.1 innings. Dillard was pretty successful last year as a starter with a 4.74 ERA in 133 innings. At 24 years of age, he looks poised to make the jump sometime soon.

- Luis Pena continues to struggle in Nashville, amassing an 11.37 ERA in 7 appearances this year. The problem appears to be control as he's walked 7 batters and struck out 5. It may take some time before he's ready close, contrary to what I originally thought.

Brewers Fans Have a Right to Panic

There won't be a Marlins/Brewers series recap today. Not so much because I don't have time, but because I don't want to spend my day railing on the awful performance the Brewers displayed throughout. With the exception of starting pitching, there was very little to be happy about Friday through Saturday. And I got to see it up close and personal, being at the games on Friday and Saturday. With that being a said, a Brewers/Cubs series preview will get done sometime between today and tomorrow morning.

Nevertheless Brewers fans, it is time to start panicking. A lot of people will tell you otherwise. It's only 25 games into the season, they're only two GB and they're just not sharp yet. But that's clearly not what's going on here. While the Brewers have the talent to be in the upper echelon of teams, there's no doubt they are under-performing. From Corey Hart to Bill Hall and JJ Hardy to Ryan Braun, the Brewers young squad has failed to make the adjustments they need to at the plate and in the field. You can blame the management if you want, but their performances are their own fault. Here's a look at each one of these guys, as well as Rickie Weeks (whom I will defend til my dying day), and why the Brewers need a drastic change if they want to continue to contend.

The rookie reliable Ryan Braun is in fact in the midst of a sophomore slump. Don't get me wrong, he will produce the power numbers you expect and when he hits the ball it's going to be something to behold. But his plate discipline has diminished greatly and it seems quite obvious that teams have realized it. They continue to pound the outer half of the plate with sliders that eventually reach six inches off the plate. And when they catch him chasing, they toss meatball fastballs at the same corner and watch him freeze. He's basically being outsmarted. But here's a stat you may not be used seeing: BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play). Last year Braun's BABIP was an unbelievable .367, well above the .300 league average. Even the best hitter in baseball, Alex Rodriguez (debatable I know) averages a .326, so .367 is just ridiculous and is beyond difficult to repeat. Braun is showing that by BABIPing the average .295. Though we're still looking at a relatively small sample size, we should no longer expect a .300+ average from Braun this year. This ultimately says one thing: Braun needs to improve his approach at teh plate. There were a few calls this year haven't gone his way, but if he's not going to bat .324 like he did last year, he needs to find a way to have productive outs and get his OBP above .360. Right now, his OBP is a lowly .280. The league average is about .320. Troy Tulowitzki feels his pain.

Corey Hart has been pretty solid thus far at the plate, going .283/.343/.391. While his slugging leaves something to be desired, it's his defense that has really faltered. A lot of people will disagree with me on this because Corey has great range and an above average arm, but his lackadaisical demeanor out there has really surprised me. For example, in the third inning of Saturday's game, Hanley Ramirez was on first with one out when Dan Uggla hit a lazy flyball down the right field line. Ramirez was on the go in the process and was about to round third as the ball hit the ground. There was no way Corey could have gotten to the ball, but the fact is, as it hit the ground, Hart simply trotted to the ball and was almost at a walk when he picked it up. If the third base coach for the Marlins was paying attention, Ramirez would have scored easily. Or how about the two balls Hart missed in Villanueva's last start. He misjudged the first one, allowing two runs to score and then an error later cost the Brewers the game. Or how about another one. I can't recall the game, and I don't feel like looking for it, but with one out and a runner on the third, a lazy fly ball is hit to shallow right field along the line yet again. Both Weeks and Hart go for it. Rickie backs off and Corey catches it. But instead of catching it square and in a throwing position, Corey sits under it, flat footed and the runner takes off, scoring easily on an awful throw from an ill-positioned Corey Hart. If he plays that ball with the proper effort, the runner is out easily considering how shallow the ball is. Play aggressive, on your toes and with effort, or these fans will start to notice and get on your case.

JJ Hardy has been difficult to watch at the plate, but has had some of the better ABs on the team. JJ is batting .218/.281/.287 with only one homerun and a BABIP of .243, which is the direct result of a ton of pop-ups. But there is great promise. Hardy has walked 8 times and struck out only 12. If this team could somehow follow this trend, it would be in a lot better shape. JJ will get his average back up and if he can maintain this K:BB ratio, we should applaud JJ for his improvement. Don't worry about the slugging either. It's his job to protect the pitcher spot, not hit bombs.

Bill Hall, ugh. I get really frustrated that fans love Hall so much considering how poor he's really been at the plate. It's because fans love the long ball and Hall leads this team in HRs, but it's hard to cheer for a guy who is batting .223/.270/.500. And if we go back three games to before the Marlins' series, he was batting .202/.220/.449. My god! That is terrible. I just can't bring myself to be excited about a guy who OPSs .669. Hopefully the Marlins series lit a fire under his ass, as he went 3/5 with four walks in nine plate appearances. On the plus side of things, Hall is playing Gold Glove type defense right now. While he has two errors already, he has saved a ridiculous amount of runs for this pitching squad.

And finally, Rickie Weeks. Weeks hasn't been impressive, but he is still third on the team with a .333 OBP, when pitted against all regulars. The quietest stat is Rickie's 21 runs in 25 games. He's played reasonable defense, but has struggled turning DP balls, throwing a number in the dirt. If you go to JSOnline and check out today's notes, you'll see Yost defend Weeks by saying that he's hitting balls hard and not getting any luck. Well, the proof is in the pudding. Weeks' BABIP is .214. His career average: .304. If Rickie manages just three of those through the hole, he's above the Mendoza line and fans get off his back. But I would still take his numbers over Hardy and Bill Hall. Nevertheless, Rickie needs to keep doing what he's doing. If he backs down, his numbers will not move up, but by the end of the year, if he improves his average to .250, you're looking at a .390 OBP and a lot of SB and runs.

This team can do it, but until they do it when it matters, and consistently, you can't help but think they have chance at all to make it to the playoffs. They are beyond lucky to be in the position they're in considering they are now 28th in the league in average and 23rd in terms of OBP. The Cubs and the Cardinals and 2 and 1 for OBP and 4 in 6. That is a mountain for this team to climb. What does it take to get them some harnesses and rope?

Sunday, April 27, 2008

HOLY CRAP!

DAVE BUSH CLEARED WAIVERS AND GOT OPTIONED TO AAA-NASHVILLE!

The Brewers are playing like minor leaguers right now, but this is something to absolutely cheer about. It's the indication that we are finally at a win now mentality. That my friends, has not happened here since 1985.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Brewers Marlins Game 2 Recap

It's almost a breath of fresh air to come back and write here. I'm not officially healthy yet, but I'm better and have a lot more time on my hands now that exams are done, so here's to trying to stick with the crew.

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 4 Florida Marlins 3

Players of the Game:
Prince Fielder: 2/4; HR, 3 R, 2 RBIs
Mark Hendrickson: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER. 3B, R

That's right. Prince Fielder was responsible for every run the Brewers scored tonight.

Game Recap:
Today's game followed the theme the Brewers have followed all year and unfortunately, years past as well: That being the inability to put games away. Florida did everything in their power to hand the Brewers this game on a platter. Both Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez muffed balls in the 2nd inning, but the Brewers only managed one run on a gutsy suicide squeeze by Carlos Villanueva and Prince Fielder. The Brewers would follow up with two more runs in the 3rd, but then fell apart failing to get on base 12 of the next 13 plate appearances.

Luckily, Carlos Villanueva was dealing. Following a leadoff homerun by shortstop Hanley Ramirez, Carlos tossed six innings of one run baseball, finishing the game with a 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 K line. But because nobody on the Brewers besides the 4-5-6 hitters could do anything productive, he would ultimately not get the win. Salomon Torres would give up a run in the top of the 8th on a double play ball, and would get the victory on a bomb to dead center by Prince Fielder. Gagne finished the game by striking out three of the four batters he faced.

Game Changing Play:
No doubt about it: Prince's bomb. It was a beauty to watch in person.

Things to Note:
- Ryan Braun nearly tossed out Mark Hendrickson on a sac fly to the warning track. The throw was a pea that one hopped the plate. Kendall's tag was late, but nothing like a flat foot on-line rocket to make your day a little brighter.

- The Brewers walked only twice in the game and had only 7 hits, which marks the 4th game in a row they have failed to hit the 10 hit mark.

- After today's game, the Brewers are batting a whopping .245/.313/.391, which is 25th/24th/19th out of 30 teams. If that's not alarming, I don't know what is.

- Bill Hall has taken four walks in his last two games, which tripled his season total. And oddly enough, his approach has lead to quite an improvement at the plate.

- In his first 'rehab' game, Mike Cameron went 1/4 with a walk and 2 runs.

- If you haven't watched the Brewers this season, check them out. Every one on the team is trying to rock a sick porn star mustache. My favorite being Corey Hart's, who looks pretty ridiculous.

Who's on Tap?
Manny Parra squares off against Rickey Nolasco. Let's put it this way, Nolasco is a career 5.03 ERA pitcher with a 2:1 K:BB ratio. If the Brewers want to get over the hump, they have to destroy pitchers like this. Parra has struggled in every single one of his outings. With Cameron returning next week, a pitcher has to get sent down. While his numbers are better than Bush's, some seasoning for Parra may help him develop that much more quickly.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Gross Traded for A+ Minor Leaguer

Less than 15 minutes after scoring the winning run in a 12 inning affair, Gabe Gross was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league pitcher Josh Butler. I don't really care for the deal as the Brewers really got nothing in the deal. Butler is more than a couple of years away and may not even make the bigs, but here is his scouting report at a Rays minor league site.

http://www.draysbay.com/story/2008/1/25/222142/604

And for those who don't think Gabe Gross is a good ball player, let's check his stats out as he rolls against right handers on a young TB team. I have a feeling we'll miss his OBP in the end, unless Gwynn can figure out that strike zone.

Can't write this week

Sorry guys, health issues and exam week make it damn near impossible to write until Friday, but somebody, SOMEBODY give Gabe Gross credit for getting on base four times and scoring 3 runs. Don't make this a Eric Gagne, Ned Yost, Bill Hall bashing day. The only one who is culpable for this thing going 12 is Weeks, but he's also responsible for keeping them in it. Go Crew! It wasn't pretty, but they take a split.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Brewers Make Surprise Move

It's official. Ned Yost does not want to make a decision. In a surprise move this morning, the Brewers activated Yovani Gallardo and sent down journeyman, outfielder Joe Dillon. Dillon was only batting a .200/.273/.300 clip, but his hard hitting and ability to help the younger talent has been invaluable. In pretty much an exact scenario from last year, Dillon allowed Prince to use his bat after a big slump and a home run ensued. On top of that, Dillon has spent extensive time in the cage with Bill Hall, showing him how to shorten up his swing and get around on pitches he wasn't able to last year. Ultimately, Dillon's play really wasn't significant, but his mentorship was.

I know that the Brewers claim they need 14 pitchers on the roster because of a taxed bullpen and a hurt Ben Sheets, but nobody in the league ever needs 14 pitchers, no matter how taxed they may be. It leaves only three people on the bench: Mike Rivera, Craig Counsell and Gabe Gross. So that means one back-up outfielder, one back-up infielder and one back-up catcher. This puts the Crew in a horrible position with regard to any in-game injuries and extended innings, which has been the case in 3 of the 5 games played against the Reds. If Gallardo struggles today and a pinch hitter is needed immediately, the Brewers become especially vulnerable. An in-game injury would immediately hose them in the field. But there's even more...

The fact is Ned Yost is incapable of disrespecting Dave Bush or Manny Parra. It hasn't been the case in years past that Yost concedes to his players. Everyone remembers the clubhouse fight last year when Yost went after a player and was consequentially approached by Johnny Estrada and Tony Graffanino. But this year is different. Yost has been a push over as players have requested moves in the line-up and getting them, despite Yost's conflicting comments less than 12 hours before. While the moves make perfect sense, Yost would never have made them without the complaints because he's just that stubborn.

There is a potential positive. There's no way the Crew can make it more than few games with 14 pitchers. This means that Tony Gwynn Jr's return from the DL will send Mitch Stetter back to the minors. And when it's all said and done, a trade will be completed or the outright release of someone will happen. It's just scary, but just like this move, Yost and Melvin are completely unpredictable.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Brewers Reds Game 2 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 5 Cincinnati Reds 3

Players of the Game:
Guillermo Mota: 2 IP, 2 K, No Baserunners (W)
Joey Votto: 1/4, HR, 2 RBIs

Game Recap:
Wow. That's all I can really say. I don't know what Jeff Suppan changed to handle the Reds this year, but whatever it was, it's working. Suppan went pitch for pitch with Johnny Cueto yet again going 6.2 innings, allowing only 3 hits and 2 earnies, one walk and striking out 3. Cueto followed suit, going 7 innings, allowing 5 hits, 3 runs (2 earned, sort of) with 2 walks and 5 Ks. But once again, there was drama in Cincinnati as these two teams go into extras for the third time in five games this year. All three were won by the Brewers.

In this one, Corey Hart hit his first homerun of the year and a 3-0 lead was blown by the usually reliable Brian Shouse, when 'Glass' Joey Votto skied a an 0-1 mistake on the inside part of the plate over the right field fence. At a 3-3 tie, things got a real interesting.

On what was probably the third strike to Prince Fielder in the 8th, Paul Bako caught a 2-seam fastball and prepared to toss it around, only to hear 'Ball!' from home plate umpire, Hunter Wendelstedt. If you were watching the game, you would have saw a couple of things. First of all, the pitch was a strike, but umps make mistakes and often times rely on the glove of the catcher to pick up the final location of the pitch. In this case, Bako waved past the outside corner and then back in to catch the ball. Sometimes this is enough for an ump who had a very big strike zone most of the day to tighten up just a little bit. So Bako is upset and gets a smile out of Prince, who then takes his sweet time getting back into the box, allowing Bako to keep jawing at Wendelstedt. After a minute or so, Bako turns around but keeps talking, and finally too long as Wendelstedt tossed him. And as he's talking to Dusty Baker, you see Wendelstedt say something to the effect of, "I warned him four times." Bako, you're a veteran catcher. Your back up has a tender hamstring, and you get yourself tossed. Dumb. The best part of it was Prince got caught looking at exactly the same pitch, which came immediately after. The difference, Javier Valentin didn't waive at it. He stuck it and framed it. The same pitch to Corey resulted in his demise as well.

But wait, there's more. In the bottom half of the inning, Ryan Freel steps in and Yost pulls the LaRussa and lets Shouse warm up before making the change to Mota. Wendelstedt proceeds to ring up Freel looking on almost the same exact pitch they ring up Corey on and Freel goes off the handle, cussing like a little baby, and he gets tossed. Now the whole complexion of the game has changed. It was once a good game and now it's just a mockery. Neither team manages to score in the 8th or 9th innings, even after more complaining from Dusty Baker and Francisco Cordero on a bang bang play that even the slow-mo cameras couldn't decipher.

In the end, the Reds did absolutely nothing as a squad. They mustered only one walk and four hits the entire day. This allowed the Brewers to take advantage of a weak bullpen in the 10th inning, when for the second time this season, the Brewers dropped the hammer on David Weathers with a 2 RBI double from Billy Hall even though Craig Counsell botches his bunt.

While the bullpen may be in trouble as far as being over-worked, you can't help but notice how well they continue to do, especially Gagne and Mota, who are tag-teaming once again as a solid one-two punch at the end of games. Gagne has changed his approach and Mota his delivery. Credit a great Brewers coaching staff, and that guy behind the plate named Jason Kendall.

Side Note: I'm not sure I'm happy that Gagne just threw three days in a row, but I'm proud of the way he handled it. I'm especially not sure since the Brewers could have used Turnbow yesterday in a 5-0 game and saved David Riske. Just a thought.

Game Changing Play:
It really should be Joey Votto's homerun. It completely changed the flow of the game, but the Reds couldn't ride the wave, and it was JJ Hardy's lead-off single in the eighth and Bill Hall's 3-2 double to the right-center gap that put an end to a two-headed monster of a game.

Predictions Pretty Good and Bad:
You can't get 'em all right? But if I'm going to get it wrong, I'd rather have the Brewers win. It's hard to believe the Suppan all of sudden has figured out how to work the Reds. But after looking at his line and how he did it, you realize that Soup had a game plan. Soup has always struggled with two specific Reds: Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. In this one Griffey hit a solid ground ball that scored a run and Adam Dunn doubled and walked. Keep these two guys in check? Keep the Reds in check. Dunn's double was a nasty one, but basically it was up and away the whole game for both of these guys. Do not give them the opportunity pull one because it will get out. That's not to say these guys can't go opposite field, cause they can, but it's not as easy to go yard to left than it to right when you're batting from the left side of the plate. Soup's dealings gave the Brewers some much needed ABs because Cueto was just ridiculous again. I can't wait to see what he ultimately turns into. He really bounds off the mound after every pitch and is very limber. He could use a little bit of polish on working the inside, but that's about the only criticism you can throw at the guy.

What's on Tap?
Well, for me, I hope it's another ego killer as the Brewers try to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati behind the young Yovani Gallardo. But it won't be easy. Aaron Harang flat out owns the Milwaukee Brewers, and while Bill Hall may be hot, I actually would prefer Craig Counsell in the lineup tomorrow. Gross should stick around too although everyone and their mother hates him over at the blogs at JSOnline. Don't expect too much from Yo. He hasn't been sharp in his rehab starts, but that doesn't mean the adrenaline of the major leagues won't catch him again. Nevertheless, the bullpen needs him.

Brewers Reds Game 1 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 5 Cincinnati Reds 2

Players of the Game:
Ben Sheets: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 K (W)
Brandon Phillips: 2/4, R, Ridiculous Defense

Game Recap:
Bronson Arroyo opened the game by giving up two opposite field singles and Ryan Braun's first walk of the year to load the bases with nobody out. It looked like a bloodbath was about to commence, but that wouldn't be the case. Amazing defense and dumb baserunning held the Brewers to only 5 runs, leaving 16 men on base. Sometimes LOB can be a bit deceiving and in this case, you can't help but agree. Following the loading of the bases, Prince Fielder hit a sac fly followed by single from Corey Hart to open a 2-0 lead with only one out. With Bill Hall at the plate Corey Hart got caught taking off on the first move by Arroyo, who faked to third and went to first. With Hart taking off, Joey Votto tossed to second and probably would not have caught Hart in time, but we didn't find out as Brandon Phillips tossed home, catching Braun at home by three or four steps. But this was really the only mistake the Brewers made the entire game.

But the blowout still looked imminent as Sheets was dealing a shutout again before leaving with a sore triceps (for the second year in a row) in the 5th and the Brewers put two runners on with one out in the second. It came to no avail though because of a ridiculous play by Brandon Phillips, who single handedly kept the Reds in this game by saving at least four runs on a leaping catch, a leaping throw across the diamond and snagging wicked hops that turned into a routine double play. The kid is good, no doubt. He's probably the best defensive second baseman out there (.981 Career Fielding Pct on 1179 Attempts), and it doesn't hurt that he learned how to hit a little.

A two run bomb by Hall in the third and an insurance run from a Jason Kendall 2-out single put the Brewers on top 5-0. It would stay that way until the bottom of the 9th. This is where things got a little sketchy as the bullpen started to melt a little, but back to back K's by Eric Gagne, who is quieting critics by adjusting, sealed the victory. Brewers fans should be nervous though. The bullpen has had to eat up 13.2 innings in the last three games. I know that Torres and Riske are durable guys, but you cannot, I repeat, CANNOT over work these guys and expect them to sustain the performances they are giving. Considering Turnbow was fresh and they need to increase his trade value, if that's what they plan on doing, why would you ever put in Riske in the 9th? Come on Yost! Think!

Game Changing Play:
Mitch Stetter made his season debut last night in the 8th, and all of us had hoped that he would get through the 8th and 9th without screwing up because the bullpen is so taxed. Instead, Stetter loaded the bases with nobody out. But Stetter got the job done. After the jam job single by Ryan Freel that loaded the bases, Stetter struck out Paul Bako and Scott Hatteberg (both lefties), and preserved the 5-0 lead which they would need.

Predictions Pretty Good:
There was no doubt in my mind that the Brewers would work on Arroyo. Pitchers like Bronson are only really good for a few years unless they make good adjustments, and his season last year proved he hasn't made the changes yet. Unfortunately the Brewers couldn't knock him out until the end of the 6th and saved a taxed Reds bullpen. Adam Dunn did what Adam Dunn does, got on base via the walk and knocked in an RBI. Any one who is angry with Dunn because of his .191 BA, shouldn't complain about a .418 OBP and 19 walks already this season. He should seriously be their leadoff hitter. Can you imagine the runs he could get with Keppinger and Griffey behind him. He'd probably get more strikes to hit out of the park too, but that's just not how baseball works these days. I was a bit out of it and suggested watching Iribarren, but he got sent down and it had slipped my mind. The Crew needs that 13th pitcher though. They wouldn't if Yost was smart enough to show T-Bow he has some confidence in him. Prince over swung in his first AB, but was still able to get a productive out. Other than that he looked good with another walk and a bullet that was snagged by Phillips.

Who's on Tap?
In a little less than three hours from, Johnny Cueto with match up with Jeff Suppan for the second time in a little more than a week. Surprisingly, Suppan out-pitched Cueto in a 3-2 victory for the Crew, despite a blown save by Gagne. In that game the Brewers only walked once amidst eight hits resulting in three runs. They will need more than that this time and Suppan has to go at least 6 innings for the Brewers to be comfortable.

And after the game, we will finally see what the Brewers decide to do upon the return of Yovani Gallardo. My guess is they'll send down Parra in hopes to prepare a trade. People don't seem to realize that the Brewers have plenty of depth in their minor league as far as relief pitching goes, so pretty much any trade involving Gabe Gross, Seth McClung, Derrick Turnbow and Dave Bush is a definite possibility. Just to name a few: Tim Dillard, Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Narveson and Luis Pena are all major league ready. I would prefer to wait on Pena for another year or so, but the remaining guys are all fair game. Even better, Narveson and Ramirez are lefties with some major league experience.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Brewers/Reds Series Preview

The Series:
Milwaukee Brewers (9-6) at Cincinnati Reds (7-9)

Who's on Tap?

April 18th: Ben Sheets (2-0, 1.17 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (0-1, 5.17 ERA)
April 19th: Jeff Suppan (1-0, 4.67 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (1-1, 3.72 ERA)
April 20th: Yovani Gallardo (Season Debut) vs. Aaron Harang (1-2, 3.33 ERA)

Who should you watch?
I'm not going to screw this up this time. You have to watch Johnny Cueto this series. Afer getting roughed up by the Pittsburgh Pirates last Thursday where he went 6 innings and gave up 5 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs), Cueto needs to show the fans he has some poise in him at the ripe age of 22. And as always, keep your eyes on Adam Dunn and Aaron Harang. My Cubs fan friend and I had a nice discussion about Harang and how every time he pitches against our respective home teams, he kills us, to the point where we just have to admit: He's an ace, and one of the better ones if you really cared to know.

Of course when it comes to the Brewers, you have to watch Yovani Gallardo on Sunday. He's the biggest question mark right now and a move is definitely on the horizon, probably Parra for some more seasoning before a trade before the deadline. Keep your eye on Hernan Iribarren as well. If all else fails, watch Prince and see if he starts to press even harder now that he's got his first. Nobody seems to realize that when you get a taste, you want more and if Prince starts swinging for homeruns, he might struggle some until he figures out what he's doing.

Keys to Victory:
What did the Brewers do against the Reds that cost them the series? They didn't take pitches and they didn't work the count. They've been rolled and smoked twice in the last three series by two high on-base teams. The Brewers haven't been too successful turning this around, but maybe an emotional victory yesterday could knock some sense into them. With Rickie out, only Prince, Counsell and Gross ring a bell with good eyes for the K-zone. If they get on base, and work the count, there will be a lot of runs and at least a couple of wins for the Crew.

The Reds just need to do exactly what they did last game. Get on the Brewers early, take their walks and pray their starting pitching makes it through at least six. Everything beyond Coffey is a bit of a question mark, especially Kent Mercker. I know it seems like the obvious answer to choose 50% of the game, but the Reds really need all three of these things to continue their success. If any one of them falters, they will fall quickly.

Predictions:
I hate this damn part. As a Brewers' fan the Crew sweeps. As a baseball fan and an honest writer, the Brewers probably only win one game, but have the opportunity to take two. There is no doubt that the Brewers take game one in this series. Though Arroyo once owned the Brewers, those days are gone and Sheets has been just too sharp to lose it now. As for games two and three, Harang and Cueto seem to confuse the hell out of Brewers hitting. Even worse, Suppan is a bit of a mess right now after a rough outing against New York and Gallardo won't be the sharp prospect were used to with his first start back. The Crew will likely need some run-support if they plan on taking this series.

Brewers Cardinals Series Analysis

Again my apologies for not being around these past few days. While I'm still not feeling all that well, I am well enough to go over the series and vent some of my frustrations about the game. While this will be brief, I will do my best to get out a series preview for the Reds series that starts this evening. It may not be up until the middle of the game, but I promise it will get out there.

Scores:
April 15th: Milwaukee Brewers 1 St. Louis Cardinals 6
April 16th: Milwaukee Brewers 4 St. Louis Cardinals 5
April 17th: Milwaukee Brewers 5 St. Louis Cardinals 3

MVP of the Series:
Prince Fielder: 3/9; 2B, HR, 4 BB, 3 RBIs
Skip Schumaker: 5/9; 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 R, 3 RBIs

To be honest, no one on the Brewers was all that impressive this week. The Cardinals pitched relatively well, but not as good as the numbers would indicate. The Brewers took or missed almost every mistake pitch this series, Ryan Braun especially, but it was Prince who finally took advantage of breaking ball on the inside part of the plate and stole at least one win from a pretty interesting St. Louis team

If you had told met that Skip Schumaker was going to light up the Brewers on Monday, I probably would have laughed in your face. The fact of the matter is, Skip took advantage of every mistake and thew in some good hitting to boot. I wasn't necessarily impressed with what he did, but it did surprise me. LaRussa always seems to take mediocre talent and show them how to come through with quality ABs when they matter most. And that's why he gets the respect he gets, and why he's hated just as well.

What was the difference?
Approaches at the plate. The Brewers amassed total of six hits in the first 15 innings of baseball, and really only did anything respectable until the 8th inning of yesterday's getaway day. On the other hand the Cardinals did what the Cardinals have to do all year, hit singles and a lot of them. In Tuesday's game the Cardinals had 6 runs and 12 hits. But what you might not notice is 11 of them were singles. But you can't hit them in bunches all of the time. In game two the Cards had 11 hits, three of them for extra bases including unlikely bombs from Schumaker and Wainwright. And in the finale, the Brewers somehow avoided the fault of 8 walks and some leadoff extra base hits including a long ball by Ryan Ludwick, who has pretty good splits against lefties.

The Brewers need to learn something from this. They've lost two series now, and on both occasions the teams made them look silly when it comes to getting on base, which is directly related to their approach at the plate. Ryan Braun is still walkless in 61 ABs and is batting a measly .242, which in my opinion is worse that JJ Hardy's .180. 'Why?' you may ask. Well because JJ's OBP is .168. I don't care if he's batting in front of the pitcher. He's working the count and looks a lot better than Braun does while doing it. Get out of your sophomore slump and show up. And don't even get me started on Bill Hall, whose production will drop immensely if Corey stops hitting behind him.

Causes for Concern:
For the Brewers, it continues to be pitch command and an unnerving amount of walks. Parra, Bush and Villanueva had to battle there asses off to stay in the games as long as they did. Bush showed great poise and pitched well, which is good, but his ball still doesn't have a lot of movement and his big inning was saved by a wicked Pujols line drive that went straight at Joe Dillon who may have the worst arm on the team. And on the other side of the ball it's the unnerving lack of walks. This team needs to improve their OBP quick or expect a rude awakening when playoff season comes. If your bats go dry, you can't expect to win games without any free baserunners.

For the Cardinals, all I can say is this: Superb pitching does not last forever. I watched all of games one and two and the second half of game three. With the exception of Adam Wainwright, these guys were throwing balls that got a lot of the plate. It was disappointing to watch Brewers hitters flail at pitches out of the zone while taking the gimme pitches. I was pretty much unimpressed with everyone else. Flores looked good as a LOOGY, but McCellan and Thompson looked more than vulnerable, McCellan especially who threw some meatballs out there that should have been in the stands. As guys get their mechanics going, these sub-4.00 ERAs will not be sticking around. Even Isringhausen looked a bit sketchy, but I know he'll come around.

Causes for Excitement:
The Brewers have one thing to be excited about. No, it's not Prince's bomb yesterday. It's Seth McClung's three innings of scoreless baseball and what that could potentially mean for a returning Yovani Gallardo. Don't be surprised to see Parra get sent down on Saturday after the game and Bush getting moved to the five spot. If McClung can show off his trade value a little longer, we can deal with a Dave Bush start here and there as Parra continues to work on his stuff. But the beauty of it is the fact the Doug Melvin can use this performance to start baiting teams on McClung or Bush for that matter. You could get a lot more for Bush who is a cheap 4 or 5 starter on most teams. On the other hand, you could get less for McClung and allow Bush to show some veteran savvy.

One last thing that I almost forgot: Hernan Iribarren. Talk about a kid who is blocked at the major league level. Iribarren is a left handed speedster who played second for all of his minor league career, but it appears that his move to CF is an indicator that the Brewers like Rickie Weeks as their 2B for years to come. Iribarren has two hits already in his first six at bats, and they were both solid shots right up the middle. Looks like Gross and Dillon have some worrying to do.

The Cardinals have a lot to be excited about. Their first in the NL Central, Albert Pujols still has a right arm that works while he's hitting and their starting pitching has been ridiculous. Side note to the SP: Adam Wainwright is an ace in this league. And if you don't believe me, try to hit his curveball and come back. 93-94 MPH, down to 76 MPH with a 12" drop for a strike. You gotta be kidding me. And you should always be thankful for the best defensive catcher in the league in Yadier Molina.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Brief Update

Hey everyone. I just wanted to apologize for my lack of posting so far this week. I've had some health concerns that need attending and will continue to need a few days off. That hasn't stopped me from watching games and being thoroughly disappointed though. 7 hits in the first 15 innings of baseball is unacceptable. While Villanueva was pretty awful, you can't help but give him credit for getting through 4.2 innings. You could tell that even Prince was impressed with the gutsiness it took to stay out there.

Save a sweep tomorrow. I'll try to return as soon as I can.

Monday, April 14, 2008

'Wins' is the Worst Stat in Baseball

If you think for one second that the number of wins accumulated by a pitcher represents how good they are, you are a delusional fan, who has been duped by the hundreds of beat writers around the country. I'm sick of reading over and over again how the Milwaukee Brewers Dave Bush deserves a job with the team because he's one 24 games for the team over the last two years. Who cares?! If anybody actually paid attention, they would find out that four of those wins were in relief, and the remaining twenty wins weren't all that impressive.

But let me ask you a question: Who were top 5 starters of 2007? Right away, you have to toss in Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb based on the seasons they had, but then after that, it's a toss-up. From Fausto Carmona to Brad Penny to John Lackey. How many other 18 or 19 game winners do you want me to throw in there? But can we really neglect the 14 or 15 game winners like Johan Santana (15), John Smoltz (14) or even Joe Blanton (140)? Are they not as good of a pitcher as say Tim Wakefield who accumulated 17 wins last year? Is Paul Byrd a better pitcher than Felix Hernandez because he had one more win?

It's just not fair to say that the number of wins accumulated by a pitcher is representative of their success as a pitcher. If anything, pitcher wins are effectively a stat that represents the entire pitching staff as well as a teams ability to tack on runs. The scenarios are endless when it comes to getting wins. Remember, you can give up 7 runs in the 5th inning, be down 8-0 when you leave and still get the win. Okay, a bit far-fetched, but how about poor defense resulting in a few unearned runs, that turn your 5 inning 5 run performance into a win? But there's still more to it. You have to consider all of the ways a guy can lose a win, like a poor bullpen or a couple of errors on the defensive side of things.

So what do you do to determine if your pitcher is any good? ERA and WHIP are usually the best bets, but I wonder what it would take to tack on a few more stats for us fanatics. How many times has a pitcher left the game on the hook for a loss, or for a win, or with a tie? All we see is W, L or ND in the box score. You can then figure out for yourself how he left the game, but at the end of the season, who led the league with the most potential wins and what is a pitcher's corrected record? That would be a lot more representative of how good a pitcher has been. Just ask 2006 Chris Capuano or 2005 Doug Davis how many wins they should have had and the pay they would have accrued if those stats actually showed up.

Brewers Cardinals Series Preview

The Series
Milwaukee Brewers (8-4) at St. Louis Cardinals (9-3)

Who's on tap?

April 15th: Dave Bush (0-2, 8.44 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (1-1, 3.60 ERA)
April 16th: Carlos Villanueva (1-1, 4.76) vs. Kyle Lohse (2-0, 1.04 ERA)
April 17th: Manny Parra (1-1, 4.82 ERA) vs. Todd Wellemeyer (1-0, 4.00 ERA)

Who should you watch?
Prince Fielder and Bill Hall. Fielder is running on a 2 for 24 slump right now, and you can imagine he's just fuming, but there's something about the Cardinals that brings out the best in Prince. Prince has a .261 batting average against the Cards, but a healthy .376 OBP. That's 20 walks in 133 PA, which is pretty good, if you didn't know. LaRussa does not like throwing to the kid and the Brewers shouldn't mind since Bill Hall has found his power stroke again and bats a healthy .294/.349/.553 against Cardinal pitching.

Starting pitching. This will be the key for the Cardinals entire season. With Caesar Itzuris, Adam Kennedy, Skip Schumaker and an ailing Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will rarely blow you away with a huge amount of runs even though they are 5th in runs scored in the NL. The biggest surprise thus far has been former Twin, Kyle Lohse who has two victories and an impressive ERA. But remember, he's a career 4.77 ERA, and players don't just turn into Cy Young award winners because they switch teams, and the Brewers hit Lohse hard who is 3-3 with a 5.66 ERA. I think the most important start for the Cards will be Wainwright's who is their ace while Carpenter continues to recuperate. He's dominated the Brewers in his two years of service with a 1-1 record and a 2.14 ERA.

What are the keys to victory?
The Brewers need to knock out these Cardinals starters early because there is nothing impressive about Ryan Franklin, Randy Flores, Jaime Garcia or Jason Motte. If the Brewers can take pitches and get to high pitch counts early, the Cards are likely to fold when the bullpen takes the field in the 6th inning. If they can do this in game one, they can build some pressure in games two in three, making it very difficult for the Cards to keep up with a team that has as much depth as the Brewers do.

The Cardinals are going to have to take their walks. Brewers pitching has been absolutely awful lately, walking 13 batters in the last series. While the Mets failed to fully capitalize, Tony LaRussa teams always seem to. They understand the concept of making contact, even if it's a little bloop over the infield. There's not a lot of speed or pop in this lineup, so getting baserunners is extremely important.

Predictions:
It's about time the Cardinals get exposed as a below average team with an above average coach. Game one is supposed to be Wainwright, but there's a discrepancy at MLB.com, showing Braden Looper in some spots and Wainwright in others. Brewers fans should hope Looper pitches as he has had a lot less success against this young team. But then you have to ask yourself if Dave Bush can save his job with this start. In four starts against St Louis, he's only mustered 23.2 innings and has a 7.61 ERA. Even worse, in Bush's only start at Busche Stadium, he gave up 7 runs in 6 innings. If Wainwright pitches in game one, St. Louis takes it in a landslide, and if Looper pitches, Brewers take game one.

In games two and three, you'll likely see Lohse melt down just like Suppan did yesterday and Wellemeyer will get handled just as easily. Expect Villanueva and Parra to continue to pitch pretty well in these games, both going 6 innings, and possibly solidifying their roles for the rest of the season. Villa is due for a melt down game soon, so he may struggle. In the end the Brewers take this series in games two and three, or possibly sweep if they steal game one.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Brewers Mets Series Analysis

Games Recap:
April 11th: Milwaukee Brewers 2 New York Mets 4
April 12th: Milwaukee Brewers 5 New York Mets 3
April 13th: Milwaukee Brewers 9 New York Mets 7

MVP of the Series:
Gabe Kapler: 4/8; 2 HRs, 2 2Bs, 4 R, 4 RBIs
David Wright: 4/11; 2 HRs, 3 R, 3 RBIs

Gabe Kapler was utterly ridiculous in the two games he played in this series. On Saturday his 2-run home run was the difference in the game and on Sunday his 2-run shot set the tone for a slug-fest. It didn't hurt that he tacked on two more doubles, one of which provided an insurance run for the Brewers ultimate victory.

Nobody was particularly wonderful for the Mets in the series. Angel Pagan had a quality series, bu really had nothing to show for it going, 5/12 with one run and one RBI. As a result, Wright takes the cake by default, as his power was definitely something to be feared the entire series.

What was the difference?
The long ball. I said in my series preview that if the Mets wanted to prevail, they were going to have to show us the long ball. David Wright did with two solo shots, but nobody else showed up. They almost managed to make up for it by walking 13 times in the series, but were unable to push across enough runs to overcome. The Brewers on other hand found their power stroke in Rickie Weeks and Gabe Kapler, who both hit two homeruns this series and combined to score 10 of the Brewers 16 runs in the series. Not bad for the one and two hole. Toss in a Bill Hall solo shot and you can see that the Brewers' role players are doing their best. If a struggling Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder find their way to their old form, then expect a ridiculously potent offense.

Causes for Concern:
The Mets should be a little bit worried about Jose Reyes' injury on Friday. While it's just a strain, it can be one of those nagging injuries that could take away Reyes' most important skill and that's his speed. No more in field singles and no more stolen bases will destroy the amount of runs that could be produced by the top of this lineup. Speaking of the top of the lineup, there should be a little bit of concern about the Mets lack of power production 1-4. Beltran and Delgado are 30-40 HR type guys and combined they only have one dinger this year, which was hit by Delgado. In this series they mustered only on extra base hit, which was Delgado's booming double off the wall in game two. Delgado is almost 36 and may finally be on that downfall, but Beltran is 31 and should not be falling off any time soon, but the Mets plan on making a run, they need these two guys to do the work.

For the Brewers, it's still that inability to take walks. They amassed four walks over the first two games, but held on for 5 in today's rubber match, which is a start. But 24 strikeouts in three games is unacceptable, especially when you know more than half of those were on pitches outside of the zone. Though three or four of them were head ump Jerry Layne. If Braun and Fielder's flip flop results in more walks, the problem may remedy itself. Fielder has much better plate discipline and can handle taking walks that Braun might not be able to. So protecting Braun and forcing teams to pitch to him, may ultimately benefit this squad.

The Brewers need also worry about their bullpen's control problems. The Brewers bullpen walked 8 batters in 11 innings this series, but were saved by multiple double plays, which don't come as often as you like. Torres and Mota and the most responsible for these numbers, so hope their command improves, as everyone else seems poised and going well.

Causes for Excitement:
The Mets have little to celebrate today. Their ace gave up three homeruns to a struggling squad and their number three in Oliver Perez couldn't get past the fifth inning, but the bright spot has been Angel Pagan and perhaps Aaron Heilman finding himself. Pagan has only played two seasons in the big leagues, but every day playing is starting to pay off. He has walked 7 times in 46 plate appearances thus far and has already managed three stolen bases. He was expendable to the Cubs with Pie, Soriano and Fukudome, but he's a perfect fit in that two hole behind Reyes and in front of Wright. It doesn't hurt that he can fill in at the leadoff spot with Reyes out.

At the beginning of the series, the Mets were a nervous wreck about their bullpen especially after their stud reliever Aaron Heilman gave up 6 runs and two homers over his first 5 appearances. However, in the Brewers series Heilman went 2.2 innings, striking out 3 and only allowing one baserunner on a HBP. Good outings from Scott Schoenweis and Carlos Muniz also give the Mets some promise as theirs still a lot of season for these guys to work the kinks out.

For the Brewers, his name is Gabe Kapler and he's played down right impressive at the plate and in the field. Kapler is batting a ridiculous .423 in 11 games thus far and leads the Brewers in RBIs with 11 and slg pct with a .962 clip. You know he's not going to keep it up, but how can you not be proud and excited about a guy who was coaching minor league baseball just one year ago an is only making 800k on a non-guaranteed contract. Impressive. The Brewers can also be excited about Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall, who are hitting for power again and are playing quality defense all over the place. Both are going to make a few mistakes every now and then, but the most sure handed infield the Brewers have had in some time. If Prince follows suit sometime soon, the Brewers could turn into a very well rounded squad.

Brewers/Mets Game 3 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 9 New York Mets 7

Players of the Game:
Gabe Kapler: 3/4; HR, 2 2B, BB, 3 R, 3 RBIs
Brian Schneider: 3/5; 3 RBIs

Game Recap:
The Brewers scored 7 unanswered after going down 6-2 in the fourth inning to cancel out Jeff Suppan's horrid start in a pretty impressive victory and a series win. Gabe Kapler continues to baffle fans, including myself going 3 for 4 with two doubles, a homerun, a walk and three RBIs, while Corey Hart followed suit going 4 for 5 with four singles a run and an RBI.

If anything it was a sign for Brewers fans that this young group is very resilient. Jeff Suppan was tossed around by David Wright and Carlos Delgado, giving up 9 hits and 6 earned runs over four very very long innings. They were almost painful to watch. But the Brewers scored four in the fourth to tie the game up and Prince Fielder snagged a line drive and turned it into a double play halting a two on nobody out go-ahead scoring opportunity for the Mets in the bottom half.

Two innings later Weeks hit his third homer of the season and Corey Hart capitalized on a Gabe Kapler walk and two wild pitches by Jorge Sosa to take an 8-6 lead. But in the end it was five double plays in five innings from the 4th to the 8th that made the difference. The biggest came in the eighth when Prince snagged a ground ball at first, tagged the base and fired home to catch former Brewer, Brady Clark at the plate. This saved former Met-reliever Guillermo Mota from a barrage of taunting from Mets fans and a lot of complaining from Brewers fans. Mota was pretty awful, throwing 27 pitches in the 8th, twelve of them for strikes. He gave up back to back singles to start the inning and walked two batters, but somehow came out unscathed.

Eric Gagne finished the series steal in the 9th by throwing another perfect inning and in back to back days for the first time season this season. Perhaps he showed fans he's learned to not be a power pitcher. If that's the case, NL Central beware. When the bullpen questions are answered and Gallardo comes back next Sunday, you're looking at a pretty good horse.

Game Changing Play:
Every single double play the Brewers turned from the 4th to the 8th could really be considered in all of these, but the game changing play came in the fourth inning. With one out and runners at the corners, Carlos Beltran pulled a missile line drive down the right field line on a 3-1 count. Prince Fielder reached out, snagged the ball and touched first base, preserving a 6-6 tie and preventing the Mets from developing momentum. Fielder's DP in the 8th could also get tossed in there, but that was just dumb baserunning by Brady Clark. I'm happy I don't have to watch him do that for the Brewers any more.

Predictions Good and Bad:
First with the good. I couldn't have been more right about Suppan getting slapped around by a powerful Mets squad, but it's not like the Mets had to try that hard. Soup's pitches were flat, moved very little and were no where near his spots. The result was a four inning outing, saved by a day off tomorrow. What I didn't expect was the Brewers to counter Oliver Perez so well. The lesson: Do not underestimate the Brewers against left-handed pitching, no matter how good that lefty may be.

After four straight brutal games starting at the beginning of the Reds series, the Brewers squeaked out a series win at Shea and start riding high again, as they start their 9-game road trip 2-1.

What's on tap?
Tomorrow is a day off for the Crew as they travel to St. Louis to take on the first place Cardinals. The Cardinals roster on paper is pretty awful, but LaRussa always gets his teams to play well. I guess it doesn't hurt they've only faced the Giants, Astros, Nationals, and struggling Rockies, while the Brewers have challenged the Reds, Giants, Cubs and Mets. We'll see what they're made of this weekend.

Series recap and series preview to come tonight and tomorrow. Go Crew!

Baseball is a Mental Game

Baseball is a mental game. Everyone knows that, but ultimately it doesn't make that much sense. After the Brewers 5-3 victory yesterday over the New York Mets, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder sat down with each other and discussed the desire to switch positions in the batting lineup in order to mirror the lineup that Ned Yost sported for much of last year. At the beginning of the year Yost switched up the lineup by putting Fielder in the three hole and Braun in the clean-up spot, with the thought that teams will be less likely to try and pitch around Fielder with Braun behind him. Additionally, Braun's power numbers are absurd and most of his hits are doubles, leaving first base open for teams to intentionally walk Prince. But it hasn't really worked out. The idea was a good one, and it really should have paid off for Yost. Instead, Braun is batting a whopping .229 and has yet to take a walk this year in 48 ABs, while Fielder is batting a miserable .244 and has to hit a homerun. As a result, Prince and Ryan asked hitting coach, Jim Skaalen to request they get flip flopped in the lineup so they could be more comfortable.

For baseball players, comfort is the key. But I don't understand what's so different about batting third or fourth in the lineup. When you get up to the plate, you're not thinking, "Oh man, I'm batting fourth and Bill Hall's behind me so he's going to pitch me a curveball first." Every player plays to their strengths and attacks their opponent's weakness. With the exception of the position before the pitcher, batters consider the pitcher's tendencies and patterns as they start their AB. And in all honesty, your position in the lineup really doesn't matter except for in the first inning when you know exactly what the situation will be. If the first inning goes 1-2-3, now the four hitter is the leadoff guy, so essentially you bat in every position in every game.

But that's not how it works. Guys get into it so mentally they actually psyche themselves out before they even get to the plate. And this is a mindset that makes it difficult to succeed. I don't mean to bring up a sore subject for anyone, but a perfect example was last week's National Championship game when the Memphis Tigers blew a big lead in just two minutes of play. My theory? At some point one guy thought, "Oh man, I'm so tired." And once you say that, you can no longer focus. This thought plagues you, infects your ability and turns you into a pile of goo, ultimately leading to some missed free throws and the biggest let down in school history. For baseball players, the thought is usually, "Man, I have no idea what this is going to do," or "There's no way they're going to throw me strikes with this guy behind me," or "I haven't had a dinger yet." And ultimately, their whole approach at the plate is absolutely mangled. The mental block has them swinging at bad pitches or overswinging on good ones.

It's ridiculous, but that's why these guys are professionals. They have talent and can overcome 90% of these mental challenges. Those who can overcome more than that become special players and those who can't, fall apart. Ultimately, the most difficult part about baseball is its snowball effect. Every at bat adds to the anxiety and the 'plague' that I referred to above. It's at this point where even more strength is needed to overcome, or in the case of the Brewers, a quick change to make yourself feel more comfortable. Don't be surprised if it works, especially for Prince, who tends to start and stop on a dime.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Brewers/Mets Game 2 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 5 New York Mets 3

Players of the Game:
Rickie Weeks: 2/3; HR, BB, 2 R
David Wright: 1/3; HR, 2 RBI

Game Recap:
Though the defense for both teams struggled mightily, the Brewers, Mets and their respective Aces put on a pretty good show this afternoon. After giving up two runs in the first inning because of a wild pitch that eliminated the double play ball, Ben Sheets pitched 6 scoreless innings, retiring 18 in a row after allowing two on to start the second. Santana, on the other hand, pitched around long balls and quality base running, and was pretty much dealing until Gabe Kapler chased him away with a two run bomb in the top of the 7th inning. Coming into the 7th inning, their lines weren't much different, but in the end they looked like this:

Ben Sheets: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Johan Santana: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Really not all that different, except Sheets only gave up one bomb while Santana gave up three to Bill Hall (his 5th already), Rickie Weeks and Gabe Kapler.

Speaking of Weeks, he may be the only guy I've ever seen who has an absurd amount of success against Johan Santana. He's something like 5/6 with 2 HRs, one of which was his first major league homerun in a come from behind victory against the Twins three years ago. And today, he was no different. A solid single to start the game and a go ahead homerun in the fifth. What doesn't make sense is how he can pound on a Cy Young award winner, but can't tap a single against a nobody like Nelson Figueroa.

Finally, Eric Gagne went through the 9th without a hitch. After a few rough looking pitches, Gagne found his fastball location and had a good looking changeup. Yes, it was only Ryan Church, Damien Easley and Brian Schneider, but for once, they all looked over matched.

And on a final note, Hernan Iribarren had his first major league hit and appearance today, only to be picked off two pitches later. Hey kid, it's not that easy.

Game Changing Play:
Nothing really pivotal sticks out in my mind. This was a battle through and through for both teams, but the dagger was Gabe Kapler's 2-run homerun in the top of the 7th. Not only did it chase away Johan Santana, it took all of the wind the Mets had left in their sails and kept the Brewers building confidence solid.

Predictions Good:
Well, I guess I was pretty close to right all around. Reyes didn't play, but the leadoff hitter for the Mets, Angel Pagan, was responsible for Sheets first run of the year. Johan and Ben dealt like the Aces they are, pushing through tough situations, getting strikeouts when they needed them and over matching hitters who weren't up to the task. Ultimately, the Brewers right handed heavy lineup would not be handled three times through the line-up. Weeks pulled through, but Braun struggled, which surprises me a little because they usually go hand in hand.

What's on Tap?
A good ole rubber match pitting Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan starts tomorrow at 12PM. It will be the last time the Brewers see the old Shea Stadium unless they get their in October when games really matter. If Suppan plays anything like he did on Tuesday, expect a good match, but David Wright and Carlos Delgado may be too much for him.

Brewers/Mets Game 1 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 2 New York Mets 4

Players of the Game:
Nelson Figueroa: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Umpires Jerry Layne and Phil Cuzzi

Figueroa was stellar, and for a couple of reasons. First of all Jerry Layne had the most lopsided strike zone I've ever seen an umpire have. His outside and inside corner were unequal and inconsistent. The top of the strike zone fluctuated every at bat the bottom of the strike zone is apparently the ankles. Top it off with the worst call of the season thus far by Phil Cuzzi at first base, and even if the Brewers played reasonable, they still wouldn't have had a shot a win.

Game Recap:
Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Gabe Gross simply dogged it yesterday. The box score says only two errors, but in my opinion there were four. The fourth inning started out with a solid line drive single by David Wright and a walk by Carlos Beltran that was a battle through and through. And then Prince Fielder got fat for his old man and refused to bend over, or even try to stop a ball to the hole. I don't what happened, but it was by far the worst effort this season by any Brewer. Instead of a double play ball or at the bare minimum, one out since Delgado is Frank Thomas slow, a run scored and runners were at first and third with no one out. The next batter sac flied in Beltran, which could have been the third out. Two singles and an error on Jason Kendall, that wasn't an error since Rickie actually got their first, led to a three run inning that should have been zero runs, or possibly more if Parra didn't induce a DP to Reyes.

The Brewers pretty much folded again after that. Gross tacked on an error to give another extra out to an already potent defense. The Brewers only mustered two hits off of Mets pitching, both doubles, and both resulted in runs because Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart took walks. Imagine that! You get guys on base via free rides and they score! Show up Brewers and stop playing like a bunch of hacks. You're better than that.

Game Changing Play:
Prince Fielder giving up on a ball that should have been a DP. It resulted in a 3-run inning and was a huge knock to the confidence of this ball club who need to play with the pedal on the gas to make up for their inconsistencies.

What's on tap?:
First pitch is in five minutes between Sheets and Santana. I'm cruising home as fast as possible. I'll probably get there and 20 after and three innings will be done.

GO CREW!

Late Brewers Mets Series Preview

Yes. I know. I'm slacking, but it's not easy working, having a life and writing in this thing. This one usually gets the shaft since it has the least priority, but don't fret I won't miss terribly often. After all, I am a bit obsessed with the Brewers and writing about them does give me some solace when they're doing so poorly. I'll try to recap yesterday's game which was an atrocity, but let me get this out of the way first.

Who's on tap?
April 11th: Manny Parra vs. Nelson Figueroa
April 12th: Ben Sheets (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Johan Santana (1-1, 1.93 ERA)
April 13th: Jeff Suppan (1-0, 2.03 ERA) vs. Oliver Perez (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Who should you watch?
Duh! Unless you're not a baseball fan, you should realize this afternoon's pitching matchup between Ben Sheets and Johan Santana is going to be utterly ridiculous, and will probably only last for only about an hour and a half. These two guys work quickly, have nasty stuff and don't throw for a lot of strikes. It's going to be fun to watch. So much so, that I will be driving home at a 20 minute quip just to get some of the game in. Basically, it's changup versus curveball, with the Brewers having a slight edge because Santana is a left handed pitcher and the Brewers are right handed heavy.

What are the keys to victory?
Ugh. After watching the Reds series I had intended on suggesting the Brewers needed to get on base any way possible, but more importantly by way of the walk. Considering the only two runs scored by the Brewers yesterday were by way of walk, it seems like I'm cheating the system, but a least I have it on record that this team needs to work on it. Additionally, the Brewers need to stay aggressive on the base paths. Yesterday was a good example of a stolen base leading to a run, but there's something to be said about the fast guys getting on the base. Braun, Hart and Weeks had a terrible series against the Reds and if they don't get on base, the Brewers can't be aggressive. It looks like these three guys will be the key to success the entire season.

For the Mets, it's not as readily apparent. It had to be begin with a solid start from Figueroa yesterday because you know Santana and Perez are going to deal. But after that, it's finding their power stroke again. The Mets have combined for a total of three homeruns this season, one coming from Ryan Church, Carlos Delgado and David Wright. That means Reyes and Beltran are still broke, but Beltran can get away with it with his .425 OBP. Reyes', on the other hand, has a .238 OBP and is hosing the Mets right now, who rely on him to score well over 100 runs a year. While the bullpen has been shakey, you know Johan will go 7 or 8 innings as will Oliver Perez, so they will only be relied on for a few innings and Aaron Heilman will probably get most of them.

Predictions:
I thought for sure the Brewers would have won last night, but a pitiful performance by every single guy on the team resulted in a absurd 4-2 loss. Parra ened up having to get 5 outs in the fourth and was pulled in the top half of the next inning because the Brewers could not figure out Jerry Layne's absurd strike zone, which I'll go off about if I find time for a recap this morning.

In today's game, I actually like the Brewers. I think both Aces will live up to their names, but Weeks and Braun find a couple of changeups in the warmer weather of the afternoon. Sheets will give up his first run of the year, and it will likely come from Reyes who will get a stolen base following an infield single. In game three, Suppan likely gets tossed around a bit and the Brewers lose the series, but you can't complain too much, since they floundered so badly in Friday's game. As a fan, i hope my predictions are wrong. My ego hopes they're right.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Brewers/Reds Series Analysis

Games Recap:
April 8th: Milwaukee Brewers 3 Cincinnati Reds 2
April 9th: Milwaukee Brewers 4 Cincinnati Reds 12
April 10th: Milwaukee Brewers 1 Cincinnati Reds 4

MVP of the Series:
Jason Kendall: 7/11; 2B, RBI, R
Corey Patterson: 5/15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBIs

In my last post I was wrong. The Brewers ended up with 8 runs. While it doesn't look like Kendall was responsible for, he was. He knocked in JJ Hardy in the first game and got him to third with a single in the 10th, when he was driven in by Rickie Weeks. He also called a quality game on Tuesday and Thursday.

Corey Patterson was pretty much unbelievable all series. Yes, his plate numbers were impressive, his defense was more impressive. The Brewers were smashing balls to dead center all weak and Patterson was running and jumping all over them. I can remember four vividly that are doubles with other center fielders out there. Gabe Gross has the most reasons to be upset. He ripped at least three balls near the gap that turned into routine plays. Toss in Corey's game tying homerun in game one, and you've definitely got the player of the series.

What was the difference?
On Base Percentage. This sits very badly with me. The Reds walked 19 times in three games, while only striking out 13 times. The Brewers on the other hand, walked 2 times while striking out 19 times. Throw in the fact that the Brewers were out hit in every game, I can't believe the Brewers won one game. That's kind of awkward to say isn't it? This, unfortunately, is a trend that has plagued the Brewers for the past five years. They have guys with great talent, but have poor pitch selection, which often results in them looking quite over matched, which was the case on Tuesday and Thursday versus Cueto and Harang.

To get a gauge of how important OBP can be. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have combined for the most regular season wins over the last 4-5 years and during that time, they are always in the top 3 in team OBP, usually between .350-.360. Where do the Brewers match up? Over the last three years the Brewers have never surpassed a .331 OBP. It's a glaring problem for this team. If they jump just 15 more points they will definitely push themselves over the top.

Causes for Concern:
See Above. I'm too frustrated to elaborate even more.

For the Reds... it was a good series overall. Nothing about their play over the last three days should concern them.

Causes for Excitement:
I can't really say I'm on the Jason Kendall band wagon since I predicted this onslaught. I never thought he'd be this good, but when they're falling, they're falling. Throw in Jason's ability to keep this young pitching crew mentally stable and you have a very invaluable player. A friend of mine who happens to be Cub fan asked me last night if we'd sign him on for another five years. I just laughed in his face and said, "Two years is enough,". Nevertheless, it's a breath of fresh air to have a guy back there who can run and is actually athletic.

The Reds can be excited about Corey Patterson while he lasts. Corey has a career OBP of .298 and he's Dusty Baker's leadoff hitter. Somehow he managed to roll and smoke Brewers pitching and walk in the process. For Reds fans who don't know, Dusty Baker has a knack for being in love with veteran players who aren't any good, including Patterson, whose best year resulted in a .298/329/.511, which a lot of people would take, but that's not who Corey is. His career numbers explain it all: .259/.298/.417. Sadly, Johnny Estrada is better at the plate: .280/.320/.406, so ride the train and put Keppinger in that leadoff spot when the ride is over.

For Your Info

Just so you know, there won't be a game recap for yesterday's game. I don't have time to preview the Mets series, recap the last series and analyze game three. I can say I'm disappointed. Villanueva pitched well as did most of our starters this series, but nobody showed up at the plate. Poor at bats combined with non-aggressive base-running led to 7 runs in three games. It's pitiful. Prince needs to eat some meat and get back on the bus, or at least hit bloop singles like Jason Kendall does. We need more base runners! If you're not going to hit... walk.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Brewers/Reds Game 2

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 4 Cincinnati Reds 12

Players of the Game:
Jason Kendall: 2/4, 2B, R
Corey Patterson: 3/5, HR, 2B, BB, 2 R, 2 RBI and some fierce defense

Game Recap:
It a pretty much brutal game by both sides in Wednesday, the Reds trounced Dave Bush and the entire Brewers bullpen at Miller Park. Brewers pitching struggled mightily with control the whole evening and eventually it would stop leading to walks and start leading to cob balls and assisted homeruns.

It never really was pretty. In the second inning, Dave Bush gave up two runs on poor pitching and lackadaisical fielding by Corey Hart. Brandon Phillips lead off the inning with a solid single and was followed by Adam Dunn's first walk. A close play at third went to the Reds as Phillips stole third, followed two plays later by a steal of second from Dunn. And then Corey Hart showed his youth. After Keppinger struck out, Scott Hatteberg hit a routine fly ball to shallow right. Hart had plenty of time to get behind it and step into a throw. Instead, he stood right under the ball and fired a flat footed duck towards home plate. I say towards because it was about 10 feet up the third base line. Kendall did all he could to try a sweep tag, but the ball scooted past, hitting a bat weight in the Reds on deck circle and scooted into the stands, allowing Dunn a free ride home.

After a Braun homerun in the 4th, Brandon Phillips made a 2-run error on a routine groundball to second by Rickie Weeks, but then everything fell apart. Yost's unnerving confidence in a long pitch Dave Bush led to three hits and a sac fly. Bush's command was never any good and with it being the third time through the lineup, Yost should have thought twice about keeping the ball in Bush's hands at the very beginning. Instead the Brewers relinquished the lead, giving up 3 runs. An assisted homerun by Gabe Gross ruined Turnbow's outing. Gross managed to shove Adam Dunn's ball over the center field fence in a play the Tony Gwynn makes with ease. Gross could be the odd man out in a trade for McClung or Bush in the deal. Everybody should see appreciate his play when he gets to play every day. Side note: Gross is NOT a centerfielder. He has the worst range on the squad. McClung then sealed the deal for the Brewers by giving up 5 runs in just two innings.

Game Changing Play:
The Brewers didn't seem to be showing any confidence the entire game. It's like they don't like playing ball when Dave Bush is pitching. On top of that, it looked like Dave Bush wasn't even trying that hard out there. His velocity was down and there was zero intensity behind everything he did. So it seems pretty moot to say that Dunn's homerun off Turnbow was the Game Changing Play. However, at the time the Brewers were only down 5-3 and Baker had pulled the plug on Josh Fogg, who was just dealing. The result would have been a reachable game with a pretty weak bullpen in the wings. Instead, it was 7-3 and an eventual blowout.

Predictions Good:
If anybody expected a repeat of Tuesday's battle, they are clearly not baseball fans. Bush was not good, not bad, but barely mediocre. The surprise was Josh Fogg whose off speed pitches really frustrated Milwaukee's free swinging offense. Adam Dunn and the Reds offense kept the pressure on the whole game, and watched the Brewers completely fold in the process. Dunn only had one hit yesterday, but scored twice, had three RBIs and walked twice. I don't care if his average sucks, his OBP is higher then 95% of the leagues.

It was disappointing to see the Brewers give away at bats most of the night, swinging at first pitch breaking balls they hadn't seen before, but at least Bill Hall has his power stroke this year.

What's on Tap?
The good ole rubber match pitting two guys who have a ton of success against the opposing team. I'm sure nobody needs a reminder of Harang's 10 inning performance against the crew last year. Villanueva can definitely solidify his spot in the rotation with a quality start, and put the pressure on Parra to weed out Dave Bush if Yost hasn't handed him the spot yet.

Here's to a quality game!

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Brewers/Reds Game 1 Recap

The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 3 Cincinnati Reds 2

Players of the Game:
Jeff Suppan: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K ND
Johnny Cueto: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 8 K ND

Game Recap:
Wow. That's all that really can be said about an exciting 3-2 game at Miller Park. It was a back and forth matchup, keyed by unbelievable pitching by a veteran and a real deal future superstar in Jeff Suppan and Johnny Cueto.

I can't lie. Cueto is the real deal. Even in the bleachers in right field behind the bullpen, you could see the movement, the location and the poise of this 22-year old rocket arm. The most impressive thing was he wasn't afraid to throw any of his pitches at any count. And the only person who figured him out was Jason Kendall and JJ Hardy who both went 2 for 2 with two singles on Cueto. Otherwise the kid was lights out, and everyone in the Brewers dugout knew it. The Brewers only mustered 5 hits off of Cueto and spent much of the evening waiving at pitches that were in and out of the strike zone. With the exception of Hall's homerun and Kendall's opposite field rip, nothing really sparked me as hit hard on Cueto. His slider was nasty, his sinker had some bite to it and he threw strikes. Nobody could seem to get around on him. He really is this year's Francisco Liriano, but let's hope without the Tommy John.

But let's not forget the Brewers side of things. Suppan threw 7 solid innings of baseball, while only giving up one run during his 7th and final inning. They always say that Soup pitches for contact and groundballs, and his 12-7 ratio says that he was dealing. However, if you asked Soup why he was doing so well, he really wouldn't say it was all him. It was two diving stops by Prince Fielder to take two hits away from Adam Dunn and solid defense by return 3rd baseman Bill Hall, who saved Suppan's hide inning after inning.

Gagne blew the lead in the ninth, but on a pretty good pitch, regardless of the decision to throw a fastball. Three years ago that's an easy out, but I just can't believe Corey Patterson of all people knocked that ball out. Nobody should be worried about Gagne just yet. It looks like he's finally decided to trust a veteran catcher and learn how to become more of a finesse pitcher.

When all was said and done Brewers fans, myself included, go to watch Francisco Cordero warm up in the bullpen, all while heckling him that he'll never get in the game. And Brewers' fans were right. On a first pitch slider, Rickie knocked a solid groundball through the five hole for the victory in 10 innings, the Brewers' second extra inning victory of the year and their first walk off.

On a side note: I spent most of the night heckling Todd Coffey and David Weathers. I like these two guys actually, but I couldn't resist. My friends kept yelling at Weathers because they thought he was Coffey, only to hear me correct them. Weathers hears this,turns around and gives me the, "Shh" sign, to which I reply, "You hate knowledgeable fans!" getting the first chuckle of the game. Later, when Cordero came into the bullpen, Coffey was doing some exercises with the medicine ball, when my friend decided to go after him. I let him do his thing until Cordero came over when I yelled, "Todd, can you give an estimate as to when you're going to take CoCo's job? My fantasy team is in ruins and I need a reasonable closer. How many saves do you think you can get in 3/4 of a year?" Normally players can handle these comments quite well, but Coffey couldn't resist, started chuckling quietly to himself, looked at me nodded his head and sat down with Coco trying to not turn around. Later in the game I asked Todd why he wasn't warming up, and he responded with the sign for a nap, which is exactly what he'll be doing most of the year. I also did my fair share of taunting the disrespectful Francisco Cordero. My favorite line of the night was definitely just yelling, "Akinori Otsuka" every time he threw a warm up pitch, , "You let a dude from Japan take your job? Did the Dominican disown you after that?" He didn't take to kindly to that one, but was very professional about it all by not saying a word and not giving me the pleasure David and Todd did. All in good fun though. I have no ill will towards the guy. He pitched well, just insulted my team a bit. I'm not the stereotypical Cubs fan, I'll get over it in no time.

The Game Changing Play:
Bill Hall led off the 7th inning with a 7 pitch at bat that ultimately ended with a slider, I think, on the outside corner that he somehow pulled over the left field fence. This AB gave the Brewers the lead and forced Dusty Baker to pull Cueto one batter later since Hardy and Kendall had both figured out how to handle Cueto.

Predictions Not so Good:
My predictions were absolutely brutal. Not only did Cueto deliver but he made Prince look silly at times. Add on the fact that Suppan pitched a gem and you can say I'm utterly ridiculous. But hey you can't win 'em all. I was right about Dunn though. He just got robbed like nobody's business by Fielder on both accounts. I wouldn't mind being wrong about tonight's game too.

Who's on tap?
Dave Bush and Josh Fogg take the mound tonight at Miller Park. These two scare me as far as a quality game goes. They have a lot to live up to if they plan on matching yesterday's game, but I have a feeling these guys aren't that capable.

The Crew is 6-1 one now, and looking pretty impressive. How long can they keep it up?

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Brewers/Reds Series Preview

I sure could have completed this yesterday, but after the series recap and game 3 analysis I was a bit burnt out, but don't fret. I'm back and have a little over an hour to do my research and write this bad boy.

Who's on tap?
April 8th Jeff Suppan (1-0, 2.84 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (1-0, 1.29 ERA)
April 9th Dave Bush (0-1, 10.13) vs. Josh Fogg (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
April 10th Carlos Villanueva (0-1, 2.77) vs. Aaron Harang (0-1, 2.77 ERA)

Who should you watch?
This is going to be a battle through and through, but keep your eye on Adam Dunn. He's one of those guys that no matter how poorly he's doing at the time, he smokes the Brewers. He's 11 for 20 life time against Suppan, and is only batting .143 over the Reds first three games. It doesn't hurt that the right field deck at Miller Park is extremely short, and he's a big boy wielding a big stick left handed stick. We can only hope Suppan figures him out this time. I know everyone is going to watch Johnny Cueto after his one run seven inning performance last week, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be there and let you know what I think.

For the Brewers, keep an eye on Prince Fielder and Carlos Villanueva. Fielder has good numbers this year, but has yet to find his power stroke. After an off day, don't be surprised to see Prince tweak his swing a little bit and get back on the horse. Carlos Villanueva has made a name for himself pitching against the Cincinnati Reds. Villa has only given up 6 runs in 26 innings (2.07 ERA) versus the Reds, giving up only 3 of those in three starts where he went 6, 6 and 7 innings since 2006. The Reds haven't been able to figure him out yet and the team is essentially the same. If the changeup is working inside on right-handed batters, you might see another frustrating day for the Reds.

What are the keys to victory?
This one is a toughy. Neither team has a readily apparent weakness, but we'll give it a shot. With Jose Valentin likely hurt or possibly out this game, the Brewers need to try and take advantage of an aging Paul Bako, or a marred Valentin. Bako is a better defensive catcher, but is 35 now and knees don't last forever, but Valentin is vulnerable if he's hurt or not. Look for Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, Tony Gwynn and Ryan Braun to be on the move at every turn... as long as they do their job and get on base. Aggressive baserunning will throw the pitchers off and open holes as the middle infielders cover second.

For the Reds, it's going to be consistency and quick starts. If teams have learned anything about the Brewers it's that they are going to do everything to keep the pedal to the metal every inning. Cincinnati pitchers cannot take ABs off because they're getting tired. Additionally, the Brewers have yet to show they can play from behind. If the Reds can jump on them early, and the pressure is finally put on them, you might see a young team fold. I don't think they will, but you have to do something to slow down a freight train.

Predictions:
Don't be surprised if Cueto disappoints all of his bandwagon fans. He's got nasty stuff and the Brewers will only have two left-handed bats in their lineup, but this is Cueto's first road trip and while Miller will not be packed because kids are still in school, there will be plenty of heckling. I'll be there to join in the fun, sitting in the right field bleachers. Cueto throws four solid pitches: fastball, slider, sinker and changup. The key, however, is his ability to throw a 95-97 MPH fastball consistently and following this with an 85 MPH change. Everybody seems to be talking about the 'battle' that is going to occur between Prince Fielder and him, and I'll enjoy it, but Prince will take him this time, maybe not next. As for the game, no promises. Suppan gets stung by the Reds a lot, and I kind of expect a 6-5 or 8-7 type game today, probably going in favor of the Brewers since they had an off day yesterday and Cincinnatti is in the middle of a getaway day. Game two is just as much of a toss up. Fogg is a better pitcher than his ERA indicates and Bush has never really been any good against the Reds, especially last year: 5 IP 4 ER, 5.1 IP 4 ER, 1 IP 8 ER. Bush goes 0-2 on the year and Brewers fans will start begging for Gallardo to force Bush out. Thursday is going to be a fun day. The Brewers can't hit Harang and the Reds can't hit Villanueva in what I'm expecting to be a rubber match. Brewers sneak by in a 4-2 game. Cordero gets the save on Wednesday to a rousing of boos because the guy really just disrespected this team.