Friday, August 8, 2008

8/8 Brewers Nationals Series Preview

The Series:
Washington Nationals (44-71) @ Milwaukee Brewers (64-51)

Who's on Tap?:
August 8th: Collin Balester (2-3, 4.55 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (11-8, 3.28 ERA)
August 9th: Tim Redding (8-6, 4.44 ERA) vs. Ben Sheets (10-5, 3.14 ERA)
August 10th: John Lannan (6-11, 3.55 ERA) vs. Manny Parra (9-5, 4.18 ERA)
August 11th: Garrett Mock (0-2, 5.27 ERA) vs. Dave Bush (6-9, 4.50 ERA)

Who Should You Watch?:
The Nationals come to town on one of their hottest streaks of the season, having swept Cincinnati at home and taking three of four from the Colorado Rockies in Denver. But don't be fooled. Prior to that the Nationals had lost nine straight and were looking like one of the worst teams in the league. But the addition of second baseman Emillo Bonifacio has been a blessing and his lit a fire under this team. Since arriving on August 1st, Bonifacio has hit .375 in his seven games. However, the biggest change this month has been Lastings Milledge, who has hit .407/.484/.926 in the month of August with four bombs already. This is a big jump from his season numbers of .254/.321/.405. On the mound, it's clear that John Lannan has gone overlooked as far as the league's concerned, but on the Nationals, he's clearly the best pitcher. In his last start against the Brewrs, the 23 year old Lannan tossed five innings of three run baseball with a solid 7-3 groundball rate. Six of his last seven starts have been solid ones, so look for him to be pretty good this weekend.

The Brewers are coming off a fight, an anemic offensive week and a 4-2 road trip. But the Brewers offensive woes may have been cured by some mediocre pitching in Cincy, where the bottom half of the order stopped being a black hole for production and is turning into a mediocre group, which is all this team really needs right now. But the two big producers this weekend are expected to be Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks. After watching Rickie's approach on Wednesday, he may have found a way to eliminate that vicious black hole on the outside of the plate that was a guaranteed ground out to the left side. Prince has been looking like a beast lately, which can be attributed to his willingness to trust his hands and stay balanced at the plate. On the mound, look for Manny Parra to bounce back from the face smash this past week. Parra will have to make an adjustment to correct his command issues though. But there's not a better confidence booster than playing a team with a struggling offense.

Keys to Victory:
The Nationals need to keep hitting because their pitching staff has been known to have hiccups. Unfortunately for the Nats, they carry the NL's worst batting average (.245) and the third to worst OBP (.318). With only 83 HRs on the books, the Nationals can't afford to let this series become a pitchers duel, especially with Sabathia and Sheets on the mound. If they plan to take any games this weekend, it will have to be on the shoulders of Milledge and Cristian Guzman. If they don't show up, their offense will lull you to sleep.

The Brewers need to just play their game. I don't like saying this, but the Nationals give up a TON of HRs and the Brewers hit even more than that. While I would like to see some patience this weekend, I fully expect to see a barrage of power, that will only be overcome by a bad start by a Brewers pitcher. Look for the free swinging aggressors we've seen all season to rear their ugly faces. But let's hope they calm down a bit when they head to San Diego.

Predictions and Notes:
- Four game sweeps are a rarity, but I do believe the Brewers have the ability to take all four. Will they? I doubt it, but I fully expect three of four, with the only loss coming on Sunday's day game, when Yost will run out his 'B' squad to take on Lannan, including Jason Kendall on a day game after a night game. It's just a feeling that the Brewers will get 'Yosted' at least once this weekend, which I'm okay with because it would probably only be the third time all year. Look for Sabathia and Sheets to be lights out, and the offense to break out on Friday and Saturday in support of their pocket aces.

- Rickie Weeks hits two opposite field hits in three games he's played. Since arriving with the Brewers Ray Durham is hitting .185/.267/.296. Tom Haudricourt says, "BENCH RICKIE WEEKS." And Ned Yost responds, "There's a reason I'm so testy with the media. Tom, there's a reason you're a beat writer and not a coach."

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