Baseball Belongs to the People

In the past, baseball players were students of the game, they could talk about elder players and the way these guys played the game and how they emulated so and so for his base stealing moxy and so and so for the way he approached the outfield. Even further, guys knew a little a bit about the team they were going to, not just what they did the last few years or what the city media has referred them to. This wasn't really something that anybody talked about then because the media wasn't such a factor back then. It was solely to show appreciation for the game.

As a die hard Brewers fan, I'm not going to lie, I was a little disappointed to see that some of the young guys didn't understand how big it was for this city to see a winning season. To them it wasn't a milestone, and to be honest it isn't a milestone in my book either, but it's a moment I'm truly proud of, and I'm only 23 for crying out loud. But the question remains: Were these guys not impressed because the media shoved it down their throat the whole season or because they expected more or because they honestly could care less about the past? There's no real way to know, but we sure can speculate (that is our job as fans isn't it?).

Disclaimer: This is my own opinion and it's fluctuating especially because I haven't thoroughly thought this post all of the way through. The older I get, the more similarities I recognize between this era of players and the last, but at the same time I see more differences, so ultimately my mind will always be changing, so be prepared for some scatter brained organizational skills. I would like to hear all of your opinions on baseball as a business and players view of history before I'm through. It's a very complex topic that deserves discussion.

The past decade of baseball has brought in a new era of players and a different way to play the game as well. From media coverage to free agency and big contracts, it seems like very few men are playing the game just to play it anymore. There doesn't seem to be many Tony Gwynn's, Cal Ripken's, Rod Carew's, or Willie Mays' left in the game. And maybe that's because our media coverage is so obsessed with dugout tensions, the Yankees and the Red Sox, leaving these kind of guys out of the limelight. In my personal opinion guys like Alex Rodriguez would have been those blue collar players who worked hard and understood the history of baseball and played the game to pay tribute to this history. Instead they take an arrogant and selfish stance because they're making an unnecessary amount of money, but they still work hard. As a result baseball has officially become just a business. As a fan, I concede that, but it sure is a disappointment.

Baseball has always been a game that belonged to the people, whether it was the kids in small towns or the factory workers who got together after a long day to play a few innings. When it began to get more organized, people from all around came and in less than 20 years in the US it turned into a craze. It's held on since the 1890s (I think, it's been a while since I've brushed up on my baseball history) and many of those years were spent perfecting it, new balls, bats and most importantly players. But the game hasn't changed much with the exception of the Colorado humidor and the players for some time now, and therefore we can account this change directly to the new players of baseball's new era.

Should a player ultimately research the game of baseball and understand the history of his organization? Most of the time players don't have to do it because the second they show up they're either like Rob Deer or Brooks Kieschnick (That's right Brooks Kieschnick!) and the media is going to let them know it by shoving it down their throat constantly. But ultimately, I think they should know something about the organization beforehand; who their best players were, who the icons were and why they became such, and most importantly how what kind of baseball is appreciated in your new city. That my not always be the way you play the game, but knowing that is beneficial for both the fans and players. Why? It gives people a feeling of nostalgia and a ultimately a sense of connection to their players because they understand. In a way, it's giving part of baseball back to the people, and we need to hear that. We need to see the players on the field have a passion for baseball that's comparable to ours. They too are fans of the game, and they need to show it more.

Instead, we see players complaining that they're being compared too much to the people of the past, and while I agree with this assessment because the media is garbage, players need to be more susceptible to comparisons, especially Brewers players. I'm not one to hang on to the past, but I understand something, if your team sucks, you hang on to the last thing you remember that was really good and in Milwaukee that's 1982. The 2006 Brewers started the turnaround (sort of, I would say Doug Melvin did in 2002), and the suggestion of another 1982 is putting fans in the seats. Hell, they still do this thing at Packer games, bringing back Fuzzy Thurston and Bart Starr every other game.

Nostalgia is a good thing, and as a player don't let it bog you down, let it motivate you or at least look up the guy and say something like, "He was a hell of a player, and I can only hope to be so successful," not, "I'm not him." Be proud of the comparison, live up to it and enjoy the sport you're playing. Make your own name for yourself, so that in 15 years, they'll be having throwback night for you even if your numbers weren't spectacular, but you made your city remember what baseball is all about again.

The Bill Hall move and left field

So I keep hearing a lot gripe about the Mike Cameron signing and the hiding of Ryan Braun in left-field.  A lot of people are happy and a lot of people aren't.  I'm going to break down the move briefly and discuss Bill Hall a bit.

But first some house cleaning:  I've been quite busy the last week and a half or so and missed a pretty useless move; that being the signing of serviceable, but still well below average veteran Abraham Nunez.  Nunez has been around for a while now and never ever lived up to his hype.  The key to the deal is really that it's a minor league contract and therefore offers nothing but a little bit of veteran depth in the minor league system.  Drew Anderson was waived and claimed by the Reds.  That really doesn't mean anything either, but if Nunez ends up on the 25 man roster, there's going to be a  lot of questions from this end. 

Now as for Bill Hall.  South Side Rob of the Brewer Nation blog, linked in the side bar, has a gripe with the claims that Hall's drop off last year was directly related to the position change as well as the contract year.  And he has every right to be upset, for the sole reason that Bill Hall is a dead average player, no better, no worse.  But I suggest that part of the drop off was in fact represented in last year's numbers.  To make things easy, throw out Hall's 2006 season.  Let's look solely at his 2007 and 2005 numbers.  2006 is what I would consider an anomaly amongst numbers based on his previous seasons because Hall was given a different kind of opportunity and was play for his future.  But if you really look at them, the only thing that improved was his power numbers.

2005     .291/.342/.495     17 HR  62 RBIs    501 ABs    103 SOs

2007     .254/.315/.342     14 HRs 63 RBIs   452 ABs    128 SOs

Okay, so a 37 point drop in Avg, a 27 point drop in OBP and a 153 point drop in SLG.  Most players gradually increase in all of these categories until the magic age of 30.  Bill Hall is only 28 years old and therefore should continue improvement with this bat.  His 30 HRs in 2006 were well above what he was supposed to be at and I believe that he spent much of the year trying achieve this total yet again, but it's just not what he is.  He's a .270/.350 guy who can hit 20 HRs a year if he's just more selective at the plate.

Bill Hall's mental game was clearly out of whack from the start last year.  With the new contract, a position change and the introduction of high expectations, Hall pressed... a lot.  It showed at every AB, so much so that by the end of the year he had opened his stance some more to try and make a reasonable adjustment and see the ball a little quicker.  Remember how this trick worked with Geoff Jenkins two years ago?  Yeah, adjustments don't work so well, but fresh eyes and a new season do.  I'm guessing that Hall will have the year we need from him in the field and at the plate:  My prediction:  .274/.349/.440 with 19 HRs and 70 RBIs.  And if you're not happy with that, you just found out why you're not a GM for a Major League baseball team.

Now the Ryan Braun move to left field is what baseball people call, 'hiding'.  I'll be the first to admit, I don't like the move, but I understand it.  Mike Cameron is not the answer this team needed, but it appears it was the only one available.  I agree that his talent did not upgrade the team in the least, but the team itself HAS improved everywhere on the field.  Let's disregard pitching and realize that all of the Brewers every day players are coming back with the exception of Johnny Estrada (No Jenkins was not an every day player).  Even better, these guys have the experience of a playoff race and a year of seeing NL pitchers.  But wait!  There's more, all of these guys are under contract for 3-4 more years, so finding the Ultimate answer to putting this team over the top was not all that necessary.  These guys might be able to do it themselves.

Ryan Braun could definitely turn into a quality major league 3rd baseman because he's athletic, has a canon and has good quickness.  The problem is, he's fidgety.  As a result is footwork is always off and his arm slot is different with every throw.  So why left-field?  Does it make him a better defender?  

No, but it gives him a lot more room for error and a lot more time to get the ball in and out, while not making physical errors.  I'm not a baseball expert, but I have played the game, and I have played 3rd base and the outfield.  The key difference is SPEED.  The hot corner is the longest throw in the infield and it needs to be made with little hesitation.  One bobble or mishandle while taking the ball from the glove turns a routine play into a potential infield hit.  Smooth is fast, fast is smooth.  Braun was fast, but he was bumpy and that takes thousands of groundballs to get over.  In left field, you have plenty of time to approach the ball, set your feet, square up your cutoff man and throw the ball in.  Even better, Braun will not have to rocket the ball every time.  He can take a little off it because bang bang plays at 2nd base are usually the result of hustle from the outfielder or the baserunner and if you have a good team, back-up is always available, protecting possible extra bases.

Not much else can be said.  I liked Braun at 3rd just as I liked Weeks at 2nd, but i have no gripes.  There was no way this team was going to give up a Corey Hart or Yovani Gallardo for a guy like Blalock who would be out in 2-3 years anyways, though I would consider a move with JJ Hardy next year if Escobar proves to be of any worth and we can get a above average 3rd baseman long term.  Mat Gamel will not be the man for at least 3 years in my eyes.  He just needs that many more ground balls to make me that comfortable with him.

Well that's it Brewers fans.  I may not always be right about these things, but I think I have a pretty good idea.  If you have a gripe, you better back it up, don't just say I'm retarded like half of nobodies on the JSOnline Blog.

Who is Jason Kendall and does he fit the Brewers?

So once again, my spectrometer at work is not functional.  It's becoming a nuisance, but at the same time, I can now spend the rest of my work reading physics theory and doing research on new Brewers catcher Jason Kendall.  Hopefully, when I'm done, we'll have a better idea who the guy is, where he comes from and if he fits the chemistry this ball club has already developed.

Jason Daniel Kendall is a California native and is 33 years old.  He is the son of former catcher Fred Kendall who had a 12 year major league career with only three teams, spending most of his time in San Diego, where Jason was born.  Kendall graduated from Torrance High School in California where he played ball and had ridiculous numbers, the most impressive being a 43 game hit streak , then a national high school record, and a .549 Avg his senior year.  Because of this he was a highly touted prospect and was recruited by Pirate scout Ed Roebuck.

He was drafted out of high school in the first round (23rd overall) by the Pirates in the 1992 amateur draft.  He started immediately after being drafted and played for the Bradenton Rookie League team.  Kendall started 30 games behind the plate batting .261/.311/.279 while allowing 13 passed balls, which led the league.  He was promoted the following season to A-Augusta where he batted .276/.317/.352 with 1 HR and 40 RBIs.  He was named to the mid- and post-season All Star teams while throwing out 30% of basestealers.

In 1994 Kendall started the year at A+-Salem and batted .318/.395/.437, while swiping 14 bases.  It appears it was here that he learned how to take pitches and walk quite a bit more.  These numbers earned him a promotion to AA-Carolina.  Here he batted a woeful .234/.265/.277 in 13 games.  At this point he was named the 2nd best prospect in the Pirates organization.

1995 was the breakout year for Kendall.  He played the entire year with AA-Carolina batting .326/.404/.448, while swiping 10 bases with 8 HRs and 71 RBIs.  These phenomenal numbers earned him the Southern League's MVP award and paved the way for his call-up the following year.  Baseball Prospectus agreed that Kendall was going to be pretty good, but felt that he needed a little over a year in AAA before making the jump.  They were wrong.

Kendall's rookie campaign was pretty impressive.  He retained his offensive prowess from the minors by going .300/.372/.401 with 42 RBIs and 3 HRs.  The power is still not there, and it'll never get there, but that didn't stop the Sporting News to award Jason with the 1996 Rookie Player of the Year Award.  Additionally he was selected to the Rookie All-Star team.  He made 117 starts at catcher and was HBP 15 times, Rickie Weeks style.  He was later named to the NL All-Star Team, which is a rare feat for any rookie.  Only 5 rookie catchers have ever done that, the most notable being Johnny Bench in 1968.  The only blemish on his resume is that he only threw out 31 of 167 baserunners, which is a whopping 18.6%.  He committed 18 errors that year and surrendered more stolen bases than everyone in the league except for Mike Piazza.  Definitely a step down from his last year in AA-Carolina.

In 1997 Kendall established himself as a long term catcher, improving his defense, OBP and power.  He posted a .294/.391/.414 Avg/OBP/Slg while hitting 8 HRs with 49 RBIs and 18 stolen bases.  He struck out a bit more, but walked just as much more as well.  Even better, he made 139 starts behind the plate.  Wow, that's some serious durability, but i guess you can do that when you're 22.  My new favorite Kendall stat:  He was hit by a pitch 31 times that year, only 3 behind good ole Craig Biggio.  He cut down the basestealers by throwing out 35% of attempted thieves.  Ultimately the year resulted in a four year contract offer by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who realized this guys potential.

It's scary to think this guys numbers could get much better, but in 1998 Kendall just ketp going off his rocker.  He went .327/.411/.473 at age 24.  Those are amazing numbers for a catcher.  He compiled 12 HRs, 75 RBIs and 26 SBs.  It looks like the Pirates made the right choice of giving the guy his contract.  BP refers to him as the unquestioned outspoken leader of the Pirate team.  He was drilled with 31 more pitches and ranked 7th in the league with this beyond respectable .411 OBP.  Unfortunately his throwing tailed a bit punching out only 25.2% of attempted stealers.  These numbers earned him another All-Star appearance.

Things didn't change much in 1999.  The guy was as consistent as ever going .332/.428/.511.  That's good stuff right there.  Add on 8 homers, 41 RBIs and 22 swipes and you've got another solid season from a young catcher.  Those numbers seem pretty low, but you should know that Kendall only appeared in 78 games that year because of an injury he sustained against Milwaukee midway through the season.  Kendall laid down a bunt and took off trying to beat the throw from the 3rd baseman (I think.  I remember the play oddly enough but I can't remember who threw the ball).  When Kendall hit first base he dislocated his ankle, forcing him to get surgery on July 4th, ending his season.  Threw out 40% of runners that year.  Could have had an MVP year.

Kendall returned in 2000 healthy to make yet another all-star team.  He went .320/.412/.470, hitting his career high 14 HRs, 58 RBIs, taking 22 bases and walking a career high 79 times.  He played in 152 games that year, which is absolutely sick for a catcher, and made 145 starts behind the plate.  Because of this Kendall was able to finish the year having scored 112 runs which is something to truly be proud of.  It didn't hurt that he spent a better portion of the year batting in the leadoff spot.  Kendall also became the first catcher since 1985 to hit for the cycle.  He was able to throw out 28% of thieves this time around and ended his season by having his cheek bone fractured by a pickoff throw at first base.  Pittsburgh signed him to an additional multi-year deal after the year was finished (6-years $60 Mil).

The dropoff began in 2001, at age 27.  Kendall had a contract slump year going .266/.335/.358.  He hit for 10 homers, 53 RBIs and swiped only 13 bags.  BP suggests this was a result of playing with a bad thumb on his throwing hand, which he remedied by having surgery in October.  Oddly enough they tried to put him in left-field for a few games, which I don't understand.

Kendall returned healthy once again in 2002, improving his numbers while shaking off some rust.  he went .283/.350/.356 with only 3 HRs and 44 RBIs with 15 SBs.  Unfortunately these aren't the numbers of a $10 million dollar player and there was lots of trade talk going on, since the walk numbers dropped so much.  The worst thing for Pittsburgh was Kendall had a pretty solid No-Trade clause in his contract, leaving him to do what he wants.  Side Note: Kendall reached his 1,000th hit that year, a milestone for any major leaguer.

2003 was a bounce back year and probably a big relief for a team dedicated to this guy for 4 more years.  Kendall went .325/.399/.416 with 6 homers and 58 RBIs.  The stolen bases are pretty much not worthy of discussing any further.  However, Kendall started another 145 games behind the plate and reached elite status once again as a catcher.

2004 was almost a mirror image of '03 with a .319/.399/.390.  He led all catchers with 146 games, 86 runs scored and 183 hits leading to a trade to Oakland at the end of the year. Without going into a bunch of details, Kendall was essentially pushed off in order to save some cash.  In return the Pirates received LHP Mark Redman and LHP Arthur Rhodes.  Oakland got a steal there considering they had the money, which was 3 years and 34 mil.

His first year as an Athletic was a weak one, and the post-30 catching cough got to him.  Kendall hit .271/.345/.321 amassing no homers and 53 RBIs.  I guess the change to the AL wasn't kind to him.  (Interesting factoids are on MLB.com about how bad his slugging was, but more interesting for me is that Willie Randolph was a former Brewer who had the record of the most RBIs recorded in a season with no homeruns: 54).  Kendall started a record high 146 games behind the plate, which confuses me because most teams in the AL give catchers more time off with the DH position available.  Briefly, so everyone knows how bad his season really was, Jason managed to GIDP 25 times and threw out 15.1% of runners.

2006 was a little bit better, but the elite status is gone.  .295/.367/.342 is better, but the slugging leaves A LOT to be desired.  He started 42 straight games that year and 141 games total.  This puts him as the most in the majors for the 6 years prior.  He appears to have turned into a second half player, batting .323 after the break which we'll see again in the following year.  After 9 years in the league, he finally made his first post-season appearance.

Finally, in 2007 Kendall dropped off the face of the Earth.  In his first 80 games in Oakland he batted .226/.261/.281.  UGLY!  No wonder he was shipped to Chicago for Rob Bowen and RHP Jerry Blevins.  The trip to Chicago was a kind one.  He batted .270/.362/.356 in his final 57 games for the guys from the North Side and resurrected his free agent value, all while opening the door for 4-star prospect Geovany Soto, who the Brewers will get a mighty taste of.

This is what I gather.  The Brewers have obtained a serious emotional leader.  He's the kind of guy you root for because he's the average Joe with no power but knows how to play the game, isn't afraid to take one to the noggin and fights for his fellow teammates.  If he can get his OBP back up into the .350s, I think we've found ourself a good guy to teach these young guys some veteran rules of thumb.  

That's about it.  All of the stories and stats presented here were taken from Baseball Prospectus, ESPN.com, MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com if you wanted to see some more stuff.  But I think this is pretty thorough.

If you guys are reading this, pass the site on.  I would love for this to turn into a more interactive thing and will take suggestions and other stories you would like me to research and write up.  I'm not that great of a writer, but the more you write, the better you get.  Take care and go Pack!  I'll be in the North end zone cheering them on.

Some housekeeping

I've become suddenly very busy, so I haven't be able to do the research I wanted to, but I wanted to briefly throw some housekeeping on the board here to see if anybody has any qualms.

The Brewers have avoided arbitration with Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas in the past week by giving Capuano $3.75 mil and Vargas $3.6 mil.  That gives Capuano a $500k raise and Vargas a $1.1 mil raise.  As far as my knowledge goes, this sounds like the proper raise for both considering their year.  This leaves JJ Hardy and Dave Bush as the only two Brewers left unsigned, both of whom are likely to go to arbitration.

I think people have some misconceptions about arbitration.  It's not an insult to players.  For some it is if the two numbers are significantly far apart, but more often than not it's the agents wanting more money and GMs pitching numbers that reflect the norm based on the player's position and numbers.  Expect a significant raise for Bush and Hardy, probably more for Bush because of his durability the last couple of years.

This is just a reminder to all of us that the deals this winter and spring are not over.  We have to unload two of these guys.  Thankfully we don't have to waste our time hoping for Gerald Laird and Hank Blalock.  Haudricourt has officially debunked that rumor.  I really would just prefer a high level catching prospect and some left handed pitching.  I wish we had Joe Thatcher back.

Bullpen or Starting Rotation

Everybody seems pretty concerned about the overwhelming amount of pitching we have available and additionally the depth we have at certain positions around the field where a trade wouldn't hurt the team that much now, but give it stability in the future.  Today I'm going to flip through the potential starting pitchers and really try to figure out who deserves to be where.  Before I do that though, I have a few things to say about what makes a good pitcher.

When you talk to the most average of fans, they measure a pitcher by ERA and wins.  I consider myself an average fan, nothing special, but I believe that I have an above average knowledge of the game.  I never had phenomenal talent, but I always did the fundamentals well, and never made the mental error.  When push came to shove, my coaches used to always dub me the most intelligent player on the team because I knew what it took, even though I may not have had the physical capacity to get there.  I don't think I've lost site of that since, and as I work my way through articles and watch more and more seasons, I've realized that wins mean nothing.  They're more of a team aspect.  Just look at Dice-K from the Red Sox and you'll know what I mean.  And ERA can sometimes be misleading (big innings, bad outings and circumstances).  When I look for a good pitcher, I look at three stats, WHIP, SO/Walk Ratio and Strike/Ball Ratio.  WHIP, for those who aren't in the know is Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.  I'll refer to the SO/Walk ratio as SOW from here on out and the latter to SBR.

Think about it, a pitcher with a low WHIP, lets fewer baserunners on and finds himself pitching with more room for error, where a person with a higher WHIP, constantly has runners on and is a mistake away from finding himself in the bullpen.  Cue Claudio Vargas' theme music.  The SOW stat is pretty self-explanatory while SBR needs just a brief statement.  If you pitch strikes and have good location, you are more likely to be ahead in the count.  It's a well known, and apparent fact that normal batters have a lower Avg if they are behind in the count and are forced to protect.

Let's get on to the career numbers:  WHIP/SOW/SBR (could only be found as % Strikes at Baseball-Reference.com)

Ben Sheets                 1.21/3.94/63%

Yovani Gallardo       1.27/2.73/64%

Carlos Villanueva     1.24/2.16/63%

Jeff Suppan               1.43/1.71/62%

Chris Capuano          1.36/2.43/63%

Dave Bush                 1.26/3.28/63%

Claudio Vargas         1.46/1.86/62%

I am truly surprised right now.  I really thought that there would be more of a significant difference here.  I expected Suppan's numbers to be this high because he's a groundball pitcher and gets away with more guys on base.  While his SOW is pretty low, you can expect that to be because he doesn't strikeout a lot of guys.  Vargas' numbers are pretty clear.  He's not good and he's a big risk.  His WHIP last year was 1.541.  No wonder he never made it past the 6th.  Obviously Yo's, Los' and Sheets' numbers are pretty darn good.  

The surprise for me is Dave Bush.  I still can't believe his numbers are better than Capuano's.  Their 2007 numbers are almost identical, but Bush pitched significantly more innings and had a higher strike %.  Maybe I just got down on him for his 7th innings so much I was blinded.  Some of Cappy's numbers can be adjusted though for his ability to keep runners at bay.  Additionally, he's a lefty and therefore has to play the matchup game more often.  In the end, I think they're identical, but someone is going to get the axe.  I think we need to keep the lefty in the rotation.  Right now, he'd be the only one.  It's tough, but these numbers may give Bush a better trade value than Capuano.  I don't see how they're that much different except Capuano has All-Star on his jersey for one year.  A move will be made in the spring once the injury bug hits other team's starting rotations.  None of these guys can be out-righted and lost without some sort of compensation.  We need more depth in the lower levels of our minor-league system and here are the chips we have in play.

Don't forget to check out the Winter Warm-Up posted on milwaukeebrewers.com.  Salomon Torres was really the only guy who I was impressed with because all the other guys were just saying their usual cliche statements, but that's the whole point of that thing anyways.  And I'm sad to say that the new woman broadcaster could be the best one FSN Wisconsin has ever put on a Brewers telecast.  Brian Anderson is still too golfy and Schroeder just gets on my nerves.

Four more weeks and here we come...

It's not taking long for this move to grow on me...

After watching the Mike Cameron press conference on MLB.com today, I'm slowly but surely warming up to Mike Cameron.  I get the idea of a blue collar worker who has all the intangibles that I discussed and will be discussing in posts here on this blog.  It's funny, not a day after I write the article, Doug Melvin points out these two facts:

Mike Cameron has been #1 in the league on getting from 1st to 3rd for the last 2 years (15 of 22 was the number he gave); the base running instincts are key.

Mike Cameron takes more than 4 pitches in his at bats.  The bad thing about this isn't Mike Cameron but that only one other Brewer, Rickie Weeks, can say this.  The more pitches you fight off the more opportunities you give a pitcher to make a mistake.

Quick side note for those who are interested.  Doug Melvin also said during his press conference that Cameron will be able to play in all Brewer exhibition games, including the two being played at Miller Park.  Additionally, after 20 days of the suspension, Cameron will be allowed to suit up for AAA-Nashville and play there to finish off his suspension.  This will help the transition back to baseball.

All the analysts are suggesting the Brewers are going to fall off the face of the earth this year because we have a bunch of has-beens and never-will-bes in the pen, but I think our chances are better than they think.  Only time will tell.  Let's go Crew!

More on the LaPorta situation...

It is pretty well known that Matt LaPorta will be on this squad next  year and that Mike Cameron's $10 mil option will be bought out, leaving CF open.  Tom Haudricourt is suggesting that Melvin is mulling around moving Corey Hart to center, Ryan Braun to right and leaving LaPorta in his currently trainee position.  I'm a little frustrated with this, but the corner outfield positions are pretty reasonable to learn on the fly.  The big thing is the first step.  You need to get a jump on the ball.  We watched Billy Hall struggle for about a month before he turned into a damn good defender.

I haven't really thought about this too much, but Ryan Braun has a cannon.  If he's on target, it's pretty fun to watch.  The thing is, he's not always on target, and teams are going to push him to get the ball in quickly and accurately.  The Brewers are just asking for extra bases at two different positions: C and LF.  Unless Braun gets his act together quickly, I think we're going to see quite a few singles turn into extra base hits.  I kind of question his fly ball judgement as well.  While a lazy pop fly in the infield is kind difficult to judge, he clearly got flustered during some of those last year.  We need someone who will know exactly where that ball is going right off the bat.  Even more, we need an outfield and a middle infield that communicates.  I'm scared to see Braun collide with Cameron or JJ because these guys haven't played long enough together.

I will say this though, the range of the OF with Braun, Gwynn, Cameron and Hart is absolutely amazing.  These guys should track down a log of balls.  If they lean a bit to the left field to help Braun, you won't be seeing nearly as many extra base hits in the gaps as you're used to.  I think Braun will come around, but we'll have to deal with a month or two of growing pains like Bill Hall.  And then the following year again with LaPorta, who we cannot bring up unless he plays every day.  Any way you look at it.  Gwynn looks like he'll be the odd man out and have to deal with backup duties for some time.

The Outfield Shuffle

Man, this is starting to get downright confusing.  The Brewers reported today that Matt LaPorta has been invited to camp.  LaPorta is a 1st round draft pick from the University of Florida who was selected in this past year's 1st year player draft.  Originally a 3rd baseman (I think), the Brewers immediately shifted him to left field in Rookie ball where he flourished.  I don't have time to look up the numbers right now, but what I am concerned with is what the hells is going on in the outfield.

The minor league system is supposed to be used to prepare talent for the big league team.  LaPorta was moved from 3rd to left because of Ryan Braun.  So in one to two years, we get to watch another shuffle.  It's not like it's a bad problem to have, but can we make a decision on this so we can properly prepare our young players.  I don't want to see LaPorta play left field all next year in the minors and watch him get shifted.  Even better, I don't feel like watching the Brewers try to hide Ryan Braun's defensive flaws and every position in the outfield.

I'll attempt to post again today on this topic with a little more analysis, but right I'm concerned about the future and needed to get it down.

"Intangibles"

There's a little known thing about baseball that some people say is meaningless, while others call the most important.  I'm one of the latter.  That one thing is actually a lot of things from good base-running to moving base-runners over to having quality ABs.  I often refer to them as the intangibles because their stat-less feats that make a significant difference.  In this post I'm going to review some of these things and their importance in the game and why Melvin is doing what he can to improve these, and what he's doing that contradicts this philosophy.

Base-running:  I'm not talking base-stealing or outright speed.  I'm referring to the intelligence behind it.  For example, getting from first to third on a single.  This takes a lot of experience, knowledge of where the ball is going, who is going to field the ball and most importantly, who how fast you run and how well you approach the base.  Baseball Prospectus has an array of stats that discuss the best base-runners in the league, and I agree with the idea, but I want to look at it more cognitively than quantitatively.

When you watch someone like JJ Hardy on the bases, you tend to cringe.  He seems to be unsure and approaches everything on what looks like a lot of instinct more than anything.  I don't mind this, but he cost us a number of runs this year because he missed a base or didn't hustle down the line to try and snag a double.  Rickie Weeks, on the other hand, is the perfect example of a guy who just goes.  It's not always the best decision, but he is often able to jump from first to third on a groundball up the middle, even a line drive to left center.  Mind you, his speed does play a roll in this ability, but not its not the whole story.  He always seems to get ahead of other guys by his first two steps.

Doug Melvin has done something in this area with the acquisition of Mike Cameron.  He's added a base-stealer and a guy who has the legs and eyes to make the turn at second, force a throw and wreak havoc on the other team's outfielders.  While his SO numbers are too high to put him in the 2 hole, Mike Cameron makes an excellent addition to the 5 or 6 holes.  As long as there's a contact hitter like Jason Kendall behind him, we'll be able to move runners into position better than last year.

So let's think about this for a second.  It's not brain surgery.  If you have a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs, you have a higher percentage to get that run in than if that runner is at 2nd base.  Good teams make this work.  Just think about the Angels last year.  They weren't necessarily spectacular, but they got the extra runs when they needed it.

Quality ABs:   That situation leads me right to Quality ABs, something that I think really destroyed this team last year.  I couldn't count the times we had a runner at 3rd base or 2nd base with less than two outs, and we were unable to move that runner.  I wish I could locate some kind of percentage to put this into perspective.  So let us look at it in a really simplistic and basic fashion.  It comes down to this:  If you swing at a ball in the zone you are much more likely to make contact, and good contact at that, than if you were to swing at a ball out of the zone.  Pop outs and spiked ground balls are often the result of non-level swings out of the zone.  Oh, and might I add SOs, which was a huge flaw on this team last year, especially for Ryan Braun and Bill Hall.

But wait, it gets better.  This is a simple game.  You should and will hit better if you're ahead in the count.  You're much likely to get a pitch in the zone and the pitcher may even take something off it to get a little better accuracy.  So, if you can take a pitch, the results will come.  Gabe Gross and Rickie Weeks are phenomenal examples of this intangible trait.  People whined and complained about Weeks at the beginning of the year, but it wasn't until his plate discipline wavered that they decided to send them down.  Gabe Gross is not an every day player.  His numbers against lefties are pitiful, and his defense leaves much to be desired, but he can take a pitch better than anyone on this team.

So what did Doug Melvin do to remedy this?  His name: Jason Kendall.  The dude doesn't strikeout, but he grounds into a lot of DPs.  But I tell you what, if we need a pinch hitter in a one run game, I wouldn't mind see him coming to the plate.  At least he'll give us a shot to bring the run in.

On the other hand, Melvin brought in Mike Cameron, a free swinging undisciplined hitter, who strikes out with the best of them.  I guess it's a give and take, but at least we don't have to waste our time watching fatty boom batty Estrada SO and run anymore.  I still like Estrada, but I'm slowly realizing he didn't do enough to overcome his flaws.

There are plenty more, and as I write this, I realize it's getting to long.  So I'm going to leave some of these topics for other posts, to keep myself into baseball.  The longer I let these thoughts settle, the better I'll be able to relay them.

Let me hear you guys!  What do you think is the most important intangible that is not reflected in the stat book?

New Brewer: Mike Cameron

Minutes after my last post I popped over to JSOnline to find that the Brewers have signed Mike Cameron.  Does that mean we sign Kenny Lofton, play the platoon game and watch Bill Hall be a team player yet again?  I hope so.  I mentioned it in my last post.  The numbers don't lie.  It could increase the OBP of this team significantly.

More on the outfield...

For a brief summary of all the possibilities that are being mulled over by fans who really have no idea what's going on in Doug Melvin's head, with the exception of what Tom Haudricourt at JS gives us, go to Rob and Rygg's posts on all of the available deals.  I'm just too lazy to write them all out because there's just too many possibilities.  And to be honest, none of them appear to be overwhelmingly appealing.  But I guess options are better than nothing  Today I'm going to mull over the numbers of all these guys and see if I maybe rationalize the best possible decision for us.  I'll focus mainly on last years numbers this time around so that I don't have to fight combining different stats.

Haudricourt lays out in his article that Doug Melvin is looking at the following players:

Mike Cameron

Pedro Feliz

Hank Blalock

Kenny Lofton

Luis Gonzalez

Shawn Green

Brad Wilkerson

First I'll throw out Joe Dillon, Tony Gwynn Jr, Gabe Gross, Bill Hall and Ryan Braun for some comparitive numbers.

AVG/OBP/SLG     RHP Hitting      LHP Hitting

Joe Dillon             .342/.390/.500   N/A

Tony Gwynn Jr.   .260/.326/.317     .255/.327/.324    .333/.368/.333

Gabe Gross          .235/.329/.437     .246/.330/.462   .091/.333/.091

Bill Hall               .254/.315/.425      .247/.305/.408   .270/.335/.459

Ryan Braun         .324/.370/.634     .282/.319/.526   .450/.516/.964

You can see why we need help in the outfield.  The sample sizes for Dillon and Gwynn leave much to be desired.  The same can be said for Gabe Gross who was back on track in the second half.  The year before he had an OBP of .382 and showed that he can take a lot of walks this year as well.  Bill Hall was just awful last year.  His batting against RHP is comparable to a platoon player.  Get on base more please.  This is why we're looking to fill some voids.  Give Braun the same ABs and get more people on base for him

So let's look at the candidates to fill in:

Mike Cameron   .242/.328/.431   .222/.298/.402    .294/.404/.510

Kenny Lofton     .290/.360/.400  .310/.380/.450    .225/.270/ .250  (Rough averages)

Brad Wilkerson .234/.319/.467    .233/.307/.470   .250/.308/.250

Pedro Feliz        .253/.290/.418    .252/.287/.437   .257/.298/.368

Hank Blalock    .293/.358/.543     .292/.354/.578   .298/.370/.426

Shawn Green     .291/.352/.430    .326/.383/.482   .195/.264/.288

Luis Gonzalez   .279/.359/.433   .268/.353/.413     .317/.384/.505

The first thing that strikes me right off the bat is Luis Gonzalez.  I can't complain about a veteran guy who doesn't have platoon numbers.  A .353/.384 split is absolutely fantastic.  If he shows up and Bill Hall's power numbers come back, we don't need him to be Luis of old.  15 HRs is plenty.

The next best thing up there is definitely Hank Blalock.  Solid numbers all around again, but you must remember that in order to get him you would have to give up one of our core guys.  Texas won't part with him for nothing and i know Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks have to be on their radar.  Perhaps Sheets can be thrown in there too.  Not worth the time even if the numbers are.

Brad Wilkerson and Pedro Feliz are no-brainer no's.  There's no way we can put any money or trade value into them.  At first glance, I was excited to hear about Wilkerson, but his numbers are atrocious.  Feliz has never been good, and his numbers tend to agree.  He only has one year where his OBP is above .300 and during that time he never surpassed his AVG by more than 45 points.  For those of you not in the know... that's pretty bad.

That leaves us with Lofton, Cameron and Green.  You can't put better platoon numbers up there for those guys.  If I had my way, I'd sign Lofton and Cameron and let them trade off in center.  That would be one sick tandem.  It's pretty clear that if Lofton comes here, he'll be a platoon player with Joe Dillon.  Cameron has his 25 game suspension and destroys LHPs.  Green is another lefty bat with pretty similar numbers to Lofton, so I give the edge to Lofton for his professional savvy and  potential effect on the young guys.

My conclusion:  Luis Gonzalez in left or center.  I never thought I'd say that, but the numbers don't lie.  I don't think we can afford to have him in left because he doesn't have much of an arm.  As a result, move Hall to left.  Let Braun go through his growing pains.  He can get it done, and he knows it.

What do you think?

The Mike Cameron Story

Haurdricourt continues to report that the Crew is interested in former Padre, Met and Mariner, Mike Cameron, and after looking at the numbers, I guess I'm a little surprised, a little not surprised, and quite a bit confused.  Briefly, let's compare him to Bill Hall.  

(AVG/OBP/SLG)

Mike Cameron .251/.341/.445

Bill Hall .264/.320/.467

It's a little tough to compare the two defensively since Bill Hall has only had one year in the outfield, but I can say that Cameron has a very respectable .985 Fielding Percentage and averages 5-6 Outfield Assists per year.  That's probably pretty low because most people don't like running on him, but hey, they run on Alfonso Soriano all the time and get hosed, so what's the deal?  In any case, the numbers don't really say a whole lot about the two at the plate.  Billy's got 7 years to catch up on the OBP side of things as long as he gets back to his 2005 and 2006 .342 days.   The up-side of Mike Cameron is he's got some speed, even at 35 and his defense will upgrade 3rd Base, not necessarily CF.  The downside is a 25 game suspension to start the year and he's injury prone on top of it.   The SOs are also a big problem as Cameron is almost always in the Top 10.  I thought we were trying to cut down on those.

The bottom line:  One Year Contract?  Yes er Maybe.  Any more than that?  Take a hike.  I'll take Kenny Lofton any day over Cameron anyways.  No amphetamines and a true leader in the clubhouse.  

Welcome to the Brew Crew Pub

It seems that everyone is starting their own Brewers blog these days, and I guess I'm no different.  I thought about rocking the MLB.com blogs, but to be honest, why pay when I can do it for free.  This blog will be used to present any news and rumors out there that are really even worth talking about and throw some stats analysis out there for the people who really don't want to waste their time looking these type of things up, when I do constantly.

So what's new on the Crew front?  Not a whole lot, and to be honest, it's expected.  The market is cold, and the Crew is slowly running out of cash as arbitrations start.  I can say that the Brewers have done plenty this off-season to try and make the turn that they couldn't finish last season.  While I can't stand Kendall and thought that Estrada was a better fit here, his OBP (.375 to Estrada's .320) is something we can really appreciate, provided he shows up.  He's an 8-hole hitter with zero power (3 homers last year) and he doesn't throw anybody out, but that's not that much of a change from Estrada or Miller for that matter.

The real question is, who will be the backup.  I read an article by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal who said that Munson may have the one up on the other guys because he's a lefty.  Sorry, Tom.  Great thought, but there's no way this guy should get his shot.  If anything, Vinny Rottino and Mike Rivera have the best shot.  Rivera because the Brewers owe it to him and WILL lose him this year if they put him on waivers.  He's turned it on every time he's been brought up and we keep giving him the wrong end of the stick.  Rottino's shot lies in his ridiculous versatility.  He can play the corners in the infield and outfield and then the catcher position.  His bat is unproven, but I was impressed last year with the type of at bats he was having.  I seem to recall a game where he hit a bullet that looked like a game winning hit, perhaps against the Astros, but was ripped out of the air.  Cold-blooded and versatile.  We need this on the Brewers, and it sure as hell isn't Craig Counsell.

Speaking of the useless piece of utility infield... Why oh why did we tell Jeff Cirillo to piss off when Craig Counsell was one of the BIGGEST flaws of this team last year?  With the exception of his defense, his bat was pitiful and it appeared that he brought no leadership to this team.  I was disgusted by the signing last year and am even more disgusted now.  Cirillo is a born leader with soft hands, amazing teaching ability and is a significant improvement on offense.  He's your hit and run guy who can shoot the middle and opposite field better than anyone I've ever seen.  Even better?  His career OBP is .366 compared to Counsell's .323.  More analysis to come as I get more things built up in my head.

Just want to give a quick shout out to Big Rygg and South Side Rob for their Brewers Nation blog on the MLB website.  It's an excellent blog about the crew and will discuss a lot of the same things I will, but both have very different opinions and point of views.  I suggest checking both out for news, rumors and authentic analysis.

Aaron (HeadWriter)