The Brewers Should Make the Move

As a Brewers fan, I constantly hear things that are meant to get the public motivated about a baseball team. The most common one is, "We are in a win now mentality. This isn't about just trying to get to .500 anymore. This is about making the playoffs and trying to win championships." And I'll be honest, I love hearing that. It's breath of fresh air considering the last 7-10 years of the Bud Selig ride. But it's to the point now where the fans have to ask the question, 'Do they really mean it?'.

At times it's really hard to say because the moves the Brewers have to make are high risk ones, but they give you the highest ceiling and the most potential to get over the proverbial hump. Last year Doug Melvin did everything in his power to improve an awful bullpen without sacrificing too much of his future. He was partially successful in that endeavor, but ultimately wasn't willing to move the big chips and buy high. Instead he brought in guys like Scott Linebrink and Ray King instead of looking for a starter to sure up the five spot and put less pressure on the bullpen. Even worse, Melvin ended up mortgaging a bit of his future by failing to sign Linebrink or Cordero at season's end. It was a problem.

But this year things are different. The bullpen has been solid through and through with the exception of Eric Gagne who has 'rotator cuff tendinitis', or 'mental break for an aging non HGH having Hall of Fame closer.' With the cheap acquisition of veteran reliever Julian Tavarez, the potential emergence of rookie Tim Dillard, the return of aggressive Carlos Villanueva and the imminent return of David Riske, the Brewers have nothing to worry about innings 7-9. Unfortunately, there's a lot more things that can go wrong in baseball.

The starting rotation is never just mediocre especially with the loss of Yovani Gallardo for the season. They're really good or really bad, mostly because of the 3-4-5 positions in the rotation. Manny Parra has shown flashes of why people think he'll be a upper level three starter, but his command issues have kept him from really getting the confidence of his team. Dave Bush has had two good starts out of the nine he's tossed, but his overwhelming walk rate makes him look a big questionable, and in my book expendable, but we'll get that soon. Finally, Seth McClung has just recently taken over the five spot from Carlos Villanueva, and did well in his first start, but until he can prove he's more than just a one start guy against a better team not named the Nationals, the problem still remains.

On the offensive side of things, the Brewers have floundered in ways unimaginable at the season's beginning. Prince Fielder is under achieving more than most, and people can call it meat, anger with the organization, or his weight, but the people who know baseball can see it's how he's getting pitched and his failure to adjust. Braun is also under achieving. While his power numbers are still there, he has stuck out far too many times and taken very few walks, leaving his OBP under the league average. And we can go on and on, from Weeks to Hardy in this regard, withholding only two Brewers, Jason Kendall and Corey Hart. The thing is, every single one of those guys who are really struggling (I'm not counting Mike Cameron because he doesn't even have 130 PA) has fewer than three full seasons under their belt. Who can't say that? Billy Hall.

Hall struggled last year after he was moved to CF upon the arrival of Ryan Braun. He took it in stride and was turning into a pretty good outfielder by mid-season, but his offense took a hit. In 2007, he only mustered a .254/.315/.425 season with 14 homeruns, down from .270/.345/.553 with 35 dingers the year before. It was upsetting to Brewers fans, who had expected big things for him, but blamed the move to center for the blunder. If he had repeated those numbers, the question is would the Brewers have held off the Cubs, but we'll ignore that for now because the bigger question is, was 2006 simply an anomaly in the career of Bill Hall. His career numbers would suggest such, .261/.318/.463. And this year specifically screams it, .227/.296/.420. Even worse, Bill Hall is tied for the lead in errors so far this year with 12 along with Julio Lugo. This, ultimately, makes Billy quite expendable.

Who's on the farm? Who could possibly save this team? In AAA-Nashville, there are very few prospects how are major league ready. Tony Gwynn Jr. is a lefty bat with above average defense and speed who might start on a couple of teams, but not in Milwaukee with Braun, Hart and Cameron. Even worse, Gwynn is being blocked by AA prospect Matt LaPorta, and a plethora of lower level prospects who could fill the pinch hitting role with more power. This, unfortunately, makes Gwynn acceptable. But there are a few more down there, including Brad Nelson at 1B, but Prince blocks him for another three years. Nelson is hitting .328/.435/.552 this year and has quietly hit eight homeruns and knocked in 36. Interestingly, Nelson has played some third base but has struggled mightily in the few games he got the call, so 1B is really only where he can go. Calix Crabbe is a solid 2B, but he has yet to prove himself at the major league level and while Rickie has struggled, the BABIP numbers suggest he can only improve his numbers.

In AA things are a bit more promising, and represent a solid two years of drafting by Jack Zduriencik and company. The two big stars are OF Matt LaPorta and 3B Mat Gamel. LaPorta was the highly tauted first round draft pick last year who has been raking. This year he is hitting .285/.392/.575 with 13 HRs and 46 RBIs, while striking out 38 times and walking 27 times. LaPorta has been pretty solid defensively as well, having committed only two errors in 52 games. Recently, though, he has shown signs of cooling down, unlike his bash brother Mat Gamel.

Gamel is hitting a ridiculous .383/.444/.659 this year with 11 HRs and 44 RBIs, all while striking out 35 times and walking 23. Obviously Gamel's bat is major league ready, regardless of the AA pitching level, but Gamel's biggest flas is his defense. Gamel has committed 11 errors this year in his 52 games and committed 53 last year in 111 games. Interestingly, you can already see the help that HOFer Don Money, the coach of the AA team, has given Gamel.

Elsewhere in AA, you can find Angel Salome, the Brewers top catching prospect as well as Alcides Escobar, the Brewers impressive prospect at shortstop. But these guys are far from ready, especially Escobar, who has struggled this year in the field, and has only recently figured out AA pitching. This leaves 3B Gamel, OF LaPorta, OF, Gwynn, 2B Crabbe and 1B Nelson the only four major league ready ball players in the farm system.

The Brewers need the most help at third base and in the rotation. Bill Hall has already expressed his unhappiness for the team after Branyan received a call up last week. Furthermore, Billy is locked up for another season after this at a reasonable price, making his sale a solid one for any team that believes in his talent. Gamel could easily fill his role and would likely bring similar defense if he continues to work at it. Furthermore, it would give the Brewers another left handed power bat. Dave Bush or Seth McClung will have to be replaced by the end of the season if the Brewers have a chance to stabilize the rotation. Dave Bush has the most value, despite my own apprehensions, since he has one more year left of arbitration and has shown durability as far as innings go. This makes him just as good of a bargaining chip as Bill Hall.

But the Brewers can go further. Brad Nelson and Tony Gwynn are very respected prospects that have no place in the organization because they are blocked by the likes of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Matt LaPorta. As a result, they can be packaged in a deal with Bush and/or Hall.

What do the Brewers need? They have their 3B if Hall gets sent away, and if his defense is really dragging the team down, they can let Branyan and Joe Dillon fill the role and send him down for a bit. But ultimately the Brewers should make a trade with some or all of these four guys to pick up a number two starter who is locked up for at least two more years after this season as well as some minor league pitching prospects. This would stabilize that rotation for this year, give the Brewers a solid starter to start with after Sheets leaves next year and save the Brewers bullpen arms from completely falling off. Even better, with Sheets and Gagne both gone, the Brewers have $20 million to work with the younger players and or sign free agents. If they somehow make the playoffs, they'll have even more money to work with.

So who do they go after? It's hard to say. A lot of people want the Brewers to pick up Paul Byrd. Unfortunately, Byrd is walking on his last legs and doesn't really smell of the future for any team beyond this year. The Brewers should look to teams who are about to have a fire sale, especially the Giants. Tim Lincecum is probably an untouchable. The kid has nasty stuff and is as durable as ever, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine the Giants willingness to get a young 3B, SP and and OF to help stabilize their downward spin. Hell, I'd even throw in Brad Nelson if they wanted it. Peter Gammons seems to think that Rich Harden is available from the Oakland A's. Harden is a stud, but has had considerable amounts of injuries in his career, making him a questionable pickup, but I believe he is locked up for two more seasons beyond this and, if healthy, would make for an unbelievable 1-2 punch the rest of the year.

So just do it already. The Brewers need a starting pitcher and have four reasonable chips to move with money in the bank to take on a sizable contract.