Thursday, May 1, 2008

The Brewers should trade Ryan Braun

That's right, I said it! The Brewers should trade Ryan Braun... but not this year or next. In two years, the Brewers should trade Ryan Braun.

Disclaimer: I want to make something perfectly clear. I like Braun. With the exception of spiking the crap out of Ryan Theriot on Tuesday, he's be exceptional as a Brewer, but I've done some serious thinking and find some validity in it.

Unless the Brewers get some kind of ridiculous discount to keep Ryan Braun here for his first six years of eligibility, arbitration is going to be far too kind to the converted outfielder. In a little less than one year of service Braun is hitting .314/.356/.595, amassing 37 HRs, 134 RBIs and 19 SBs. How can you give that up? Braun's move to the outfield has created a log jam in the outfield as far as prospects go. Matt LaPorta and Cole Gillespie are currently playing in AA-Huntsville and are absolutely ripping the cover off the ball.

Matt LaPorta was drafted in the 1st round of last year's First Year Player Draft and has been impressing scouts all over the place. He began his first full professional season this year in Huntsville and is batting an impressive .300/.400/.644 with 7 dingers and 27 RBIs. He's shown power to all fields and has great discipline around the strike zone. One thing holds him back however. LaPorta is a former catcher who was converted to a first baseman in college and has now been moved to left field because Prince is poised to be the icon of the Brewers for years to come. As a result of this move, LaPorta has only played 46 games in the outfield, 25 in left and 21 in right. This lack of experience keeps LaPorta out of the majors so he can work on his reads and routes, making his 1.000 fielding percentage a bit deceiving.

Cole Gillespie is a three-star prospect who was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2006 First Year Player Draft from Oregon State. In almost two full seasons of professional ball, Cole is hitting .287/.400/.466 with 24 HRs, 111 RBIs and 35 RBIs. According to Baseball Prospectus he has the best approach in the system, with a knack for the strikezone and the ability to poke balls into all gaps. Gillespie's downfall is his arm and speed, which no doubt dooms him to that left field spot. Essentially he becomes the best bench player imaginable, or perhaps a guy you're willing to put on the field every day just to get on base and score run. Nevertheless, he too is about a year or two out.

So in two years the Brewers are looking at Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Tony Gwynn Jr, Matt LaPorta and Cole Gillespie poised and ready to play. In reality only Hart and Gwynn can play center, leaving the three corner positions to Gillespie, Braun and LaPorta. But there's a glitch. As far as prospects go, OF is really the only position the Brewers have proven depth. JJ Hardy will be due his money in his last year of arbitration. Prince Fielder will have his big deal. Rickie will be traded or get his low but deserved salary and the Brewers may even think about locking up Gallardo for a couple of years. This leaves the 3B, C and pitching at a bit of a disadvantage, likely only having Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra as the main stays.

For some, it's a no brainer. Trade Tony Gwynn and a couple of others and pick up some prospects. But I'm thinking long term. With the huge blockbuster trade this year of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, what could the Brewers possibly get in return for Ryan Braun and a couple of prospects? For those who don't know, in return for Cabrera and Willis, the Marlins received Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, and Cameron Maybin. That's four pitchers, a catcher and an OF prospect. These guys may not be getting the job done right now, but the idea is getting more bang for your buck. If the Brewers had some intestinal fortitude that could trade Braun's potentially bloated salary for a couple of top 3B or SP prospects.

And in the end, all you really lose is power. You'll sure up your depth on all fronts, save some cash to keep guys like Prince or Yovani and essentially keep this 'run' of a small market team going for more than just 3 or 4 years. The other option is packaging up Corey Hart in a deal, which is not a bad idea either. But if the Brewers plan on sticking around for more than a couple of years they need to not be afraid to ship out some of their quality young guys when they're due their money. If you sell them while they're still sort of cheap, the return becomes longevity in your success.

Ultimately, I believe Braun should be the casualty. He has the lowest isopatience of any outfielder and will ultimately yield the biggest return as far as saving cash and the quality of prospects. In my opinion it's a big win for this team. Braun isn't the guy putting seats in the stands, Prince Fielder is, and while some people may think the Brewers are bailing, they'll soon realize they're poised to continue their run of success.

The question is: Will they do it? Would you do it?

I would.

2 comments:

Joe said...

First time commenter, long time reader. I usually like what you write but not this time. You picked the wrong guy to get rid of. They should trade Prince and I'll tell you why. His weight is a serious issue. He's just gonna get fatter and fatter. He actually looks bigger game to game. This keeps him from playing even an adequate 1st base. He should be traded to an AL team where he can be Big Papi Jr. Also, it is his fault Yo is hurt. Instead of tossing the ball to him like every other 1st baseman in the world would have done, Prince decided to throw his fat body towards the bag causing Yo to avoid him and subsequently tear his ACL. And if you're worried about too many OF's, I believe LaPorta can play 1st base.
In closing, just ask youself one question. Who is the better athlete and all around player? I think Braun is better in EVERY category, including power and defence.

akittell said...

After some thought, I agree with you. Another reader at ArmChair GM mentioned this to me as well, and the only thing that I'm skeptical about is what you lose as far as fan base when it comes to Prince, as well as what you can really get in return. Prince is a future DH, regardless of what he would like to think. As a result, teams may not be as willing to get rid of him. Additionally, he is already the face of this franchise, more so than Ryan Braun. This is because of the type of emotion he puts on the field. Braun is the perfect business man saying the expected things, while Prince fires off ridiculous comments that ultimately the city of Milwaukee enjoys.

But ultimately, you're probably right. Getting rid of Prince in two or three years might be the best move for the Brewers. The key to this whole post is the idea. The idea is to not be afraid to make a big move that will ultimately allow this team to stay competitive for years to come.

Thanks for reading.