Thursday, June 12, 2008

Five Things the Brewers Need to Do to Make the Playoffs

I love the movie 'High Fidelity'. John Cusack is absolutely amazing in it and the rest of the supporting cast kills, especially Jack Black and Todd Louiso. In the movie Cusack runs a record store and is constantly spewing off his Top Five everything, albums, front sides, B sides and break ups. I tend to use this Top Five game quite often, especially with new people who have a hard time opening up. It breaks the ice and you get to find out what kind of interests and taste the other person has. I got into this game not to long ago and it quickly delved into sports. Since I haven't been able to watch any games lately, I wanted to do something different, and perhaps I can make this a more common occurrence.

Today's Top Five revolves around what the Brewers need to do if they plan on making the playoffs this year. They are currently 7.5 behind the NL Central leading Cubs and five games behind the Wild Card leading Cardinals (two games behind second place Florida). So how does tap this deficit?

1. Stop relying on the homerun.

Yesterday's victory over the Houston Astros took five homeruns, and practically every single one was needed. With guys like Jason Kendall and JJ Hardy in your lineup, you're not going to get long ball production from a third of your lineup. Even worse, these guys' OBP isn't healthy enough to support the idea of multi-run shots. The Brewers are currently sixth in the bigs with 76 dingers this year, which is what you would expect from them. But last night was a clear indication of the problem they have. Of the five shots, three of them were of the solo variety. It's almost as if the team is trying to go long with runners on and over swinging, especially Prince Fielder. RBI opportunities are great and all, but staying within yourself will give you a better shot at taking advantage of them. The Brewers squad needs to spray to all fields and work on improving their lowly .252 average if they want to make a real run.

2. Play better on the road.

This is old news, but stats don't lie. The Brewers are 19-10 at home and 15-21 on the road. While this isn't as bad as years past, it's hardly something to be proud of. Every time the team goes on the road, the offense starts falling flat. As a result, the pitchers start pushing, trying to get more zeros and be too fine. It's a domino effect, and I'm sick of seeing it from a young team that should have figured it out last season, when they did the same exact thing. The best teams in baseball are often times .500 on the road, usually a little better than that. If the Brewers plan on playing October baseball, they'll need to finish the year at the mark. Ten games above will likely get the that Wild Card spot.

3. Trade for a solid, young starting pitcher.

For a lot of Brewers fans, this too is a no brainer, but people don't seem to understand that they can't just get an average guy and expect things to be fine and dandy. Jeff Weaver is not and never was the answer. Doug Melvin just wanted the veteran to help out his young guys down in AAA-Nashville. If you think anything else, you're sadly mistaken. The way Dave Bush has pitched, it doesn't matter how bad Weaver was in AAA, he would have been given the shot. Baseball is a funny sport. They give guys with experience shot after shot no matter how bad they are. Weaver was never given that shot and for a reason. If he got signed and nobody's picked up Kenny Lofton, you know something funky was going on.

But I digress. If the Brewers plan on winning at a .600 clip the rest of the season, they'll need more consistency out of Dave Bush and Seth McClung. I believe that Manny Parra has gotten things figured out. While his start last night wasn't particularly good, he's shown better command of his pitches as well ass significantly better stuff than the other two back end starters. In the end, Dave Bush has to go and a young starter with actual talent should take his place. While McClung isn't particularly good, he's got much better stuff and doesn't let up with two outs. You never know what you're going to get from Bush and their really isn't and in between. It's a good start or a really awful one. Most times that awful start completely takes the team out of the game and destroys the team's confidence.

4. Trade Bill Hall and bring up Mat Gamel.

This is a risk... a big big big risk, but the fact remains that we need an every day third baseman. Russell 'The Muscle' won't be able to keep up this tear for much longer and his strikeout totals are killing rallies with runners on. Gamel has a professional approach and his defense has improved quite a bit, though it is still an adventure. Nevertheless, his bat should more than make up for his blunders in the field. The team seems pretty hell bent on keeping Gamel down, but Hall is a cancer that doesn't hit or walk any more. As a result he becomes a pivotal trading chip alongside Dave Bush and Tony Gwynn Jr., which gives the Brewers the opportunity to get two birds with one stone. The Brewers will have to bite the bullet as far his contract goes, but I think eating the money is actually a positive as far as the team's future goes.

5. Learn to take walks without sacrificing average.

If you haven't noticed yet, the Brewers have gotten a lot more hits lately, leading to more runs. But since that has started, the strikeouts have increased dramatically and the walks have all but disappeared. The Brewers are currently sporting a .323 team on-base. That gives them an isopatience of 71. Where does the best team lie? The Cubs have a 78 and the Red Sox 76. You may not think that's a difference, but it makes a big one. The Cardinals are rocking an 83, but their pitching has finally come back down to earth. If the Brewers can make this jump and continue to push their average up (Around 12 points in the last three weeks), they will score a ton more runs and quell the pressure put on the starting pitcher. More baserunners = more stolen bases = more opportunities with RISP = more runs = more wins. Leave it to the science guy to make an equation out of it.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

More consistency out of McClung? McClung isn't good? What games have you been watching? I ( and Yost) think he has a done an outstanding job in every role he has been given with the Brewers. What more does he have to do to prove himself to you? Oh, wait a minute, he doesn't!!

akittell said...

Wait... Umm Seth has had a whopping three starts. He still has a ton to prove.

Don't get me wrong, he's been good, but he's no different than what Bush, Villanueva and Parra have been in the rotation. He's 2/3 right now on his starts. If he continues to avoid walks, he's going to be a quality four starter. But don't tell me he's proven until he puts together at least one whole solid year.

Anonymous said...

Umm, he has had 4 starts, not 3, and he is 3-3. You originally said he was not good, but now you are saying he has been good. Why are you being so wishy washy? And I didn't say he was proven, I just said he doesn't have to prove anything to you. Besides, IMO, since the Brewers traded for him, he has been darn good....walks or no walks.

akittell said...

Jamie, you're cracking me up. I just went through two months of post, and all I've done is give McClung his props. In fact, I was the one who wrote this in the first week of may.

"On the upside, the Brewers' bullpen held the Marlins offense scoreless over the eight innings they were asked to pick up, allowing only four hits and three walks. At what point do you send Bush, Villanueva and Manny Parra before you let Seth McClung have a crack at the rotation? It would be nice to have an overpowering guy in there, and he's pitched well enough to deserve a spot."

Yup, I hate McClung, think he's terrible. Did you catch the sarcasm? You're being wishy washy with your accusations. I never once said the guy sucked. Furthermore, you think I'm demanding that McClung has to prove it to me? I'm not that arrogant. I'm just warning people to stay cautious, especially because his command hasn't been phenomenal yet. He's been missing over the plate and getting away with it because his stuff has got good movement. That's why he's better than Dave Bush. Look at all my posts, have I ever said that we should eliminate McClung? Read a little more before coming after me.

akittell said...

One last thing. Go back to February and my 25-man Roster Analysis. I was the one who said McClung should be on the roster instead of Manny Parra because of what he did last year.

Anonymous said...

I was just quoting your words, not mine. I have never read your posts before and if you were a fan of his then you wouldn't be saying things like "If the Brewers plan on winning at a .600 clip the rest of the season, they'll need more consistency out of Dave Bush and Seth McClung" and "McClung isn't particularly good". I do agree with your statements about Bush, but I think this McClung kid deserves more than these statements you just wrote. I am not trying to be difficult and am definitely not being wavering in my statements, I have just been trying to give my opinion of your opinions....which we are both entitled to.

akittell said...

McClung isn't particularly good. I stand by that statement. But perhaps you don't realize that not particularly good doesn't mean he's bad. Perhaps it didn't work so well because he got lumped in with Bush.

I just don't think you can have a Seth McClung AND a Dave Bush. I would much prefer McClung. As far as his numbers go, he's playing as if this is his one big year. He won't be this good forever, especially based on his BABIP numbers which is only .269. The mechanics change really made a difference, and I give him that credit and have said it for months.