I'm usually not one to quip about the batting order, but this evening's lineup is a blatant atrocity and a clear lack of knowledge of baseball. At least the first two batters are. With Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy both out against a right handed pitcher, Joe Dillon and Craig Counsell are getting the nod. I have no problem with that, but I do have a problem with Counsell leading fof. Here are their numbers:
Craig Counsell: .235/.312/.327 in 98 ABs
Joe Dillon: .283/.411/.348 in 46 ABs
Interestingly, both have taken nine walks this season, though Dillon has seen the plate less than half of the times. So let's think about this for a second. Ned Yost said he was a numbers guy at the beginning of the season, right? Remember the Kendall batting ninth experiment? Ned Yost said, "You've had a lot of smart people looking at it and crunching numbers and seeing if, numbers-wise, it made sense," so clearly he's got people telling him what's a good idea. Apparently he didn't listen to them today.
It's pretty clear you put your best on-base guy first and your worst on-base guy last unless he's got crazy power and average. When looking at today's lineup I see that Craig Counsell is batting lead-off with his below average OBP and Dillon batting behind him. You gotta be out of your damn mind! The worst on-base in this line-up falls to Mike Cameron, but his power more than acclimates him to somewhere other than the eight spot. Then there's Braun, but the power, high average and need for protection relegates him to the three hole. Then there's Craig Counsell. Zero power, average speed, low on-base and clearly beyond his prime in years. Go ahead, put him at the top of the line-up where he'll get more ABs than your best hitters and turn around the line-up like an eight hitter instead of a lead-off guy.
Look, I've said this a million times. Baseball isn't rocket science when it comes to putting your team in the best position to win. Ask yourself how many ABs a game Craig Counsell will get and then how many ABs Corey Hart or Russell Branyan will get tonight. There's no doubt in my mind, they will only differ by one, but every AB matters. Think about what that one AB could mean. Perhaps it's the ninth inning and you're down two with two outs and the lineup turns over. Would you rather a .312 OBP or a .411 OBP guy up there in front of your big hitters? Obviously you're going with the .411 guy because he gives you the best shot to get the tying runner to the plate.
Ned Yost doesn't look at it that way. He looks at Craig Counsell and he doesn't see that he's underperforming. He sees a 'gritty competitor' who 'battles' all the time. Listen, battling itself doesn't make you a good player. It gets you some respect and makes up for some of your talent, but the fact remains that you are not good. Joe Dillon isn't that good either, but he's shown the ability to take the walk and make contact regularly. His numbers pretty clearly show that he belongs in the one hole. Zero power, lots of contact and high on-base. After that, Corey Hart or Russell Branyan are perfect candidates for the two hole base on their average and on-base. One of them has to protect Fielder, but the other should be reaping the benefits in front of Braun and Fielder. You're looking a line-up that consists of a two above average on-base guys in front of two above average power guys. I wonder if that would lead to runs in the long run.
I guess Ned doesn't think so.
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Aaron..I think you're right in pointing out Ned's apparent contradiction in going with the numbers and then batting Counsell lead-off. But, you are forgetting something. Ned says one thing and does the opposite. He does this all the time because he doesn't care if the media and Milwaukee are left frustrated. He is the manager and he creates an off balance atmosphere to ensure that no oneknows anything...no one but Mr. Ned-the manager.
Also, I think you are far too harsh on Counsell from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, I agree with you completely. Tonite was truly an aberration with Counsell going deep.....But, you have called his arm not that strong and questioned his defense all together. I usually agree with your analysis, but I have to disagree here. Counsell is the obvious back up to Hardy at SS and really, there is nothing to fear. Sure, Hardy has more range and a stronger arm, but Counsell makes the plays....not great range, but strong enough and accurate arm...
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