The Series:
Colorado Rockies (37-52) @ Milwaukee Brewers (49-39)
Who's on Tap?:
July 7th: Ubaldo Jimenez (3-8, 4.50 ERA) vs. Seth McClung (5-3, 4.18 ERA)
July 8th: Mark Redman (2-3, 7.05 ERA) vs. C.C. Sabathia (6-8, 3.83 ERA)
July 9th: Greg Reynolds (2-6, 6.71 ERA) vs. Manny Parra (8-2, 3.69 ERA)
July 10th: Jorge De La Rosa (3-4, 6.58 ERA) vs. Ben Sheets (10-2, 2.77 ERA)
Who Should You Watch?:
The Rockies can just not get healthy as they have placed at least nine different players on the DL and most recently had to place Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton and Jeff Francis on the list within the last week. This really hogties the Rockies, who still managed to score 35 runs in their last three games. Matt Holliday has a lot to do with that. Holliday is batting .343/.424/.566 this season and has recorded a hit in 21 of his last 22 games. A lot of those games were at home though, so the Rockies are hoping he can do the same outside of hitter-friendly Coors Field. On the mound, Brian Fuentes continues to be the talk of the town, as he may be able to be traded and offer some support for the ailing Rockies. Fuentes has struggled recently, so it's important he gets back on track. Elsewhere, Taylor Bucholz is well worth your time to check out if he takes the mound. He's carrying a 1.73 ERA in 41.2 innings this year and you wonder why he hasn't been moved to the rotation considering how awful it's been.
For the Brewers, it's C.C. Sabathia time. Sabathia will be announced as the Brewers new starting pitcher this morning in just a few house. Sabathia has only seen Miller Park twice in his career, one of which was last year's make up game against the Angels when Brewers fans paid ten dollars for general admission tickets. Sabathia went seven innings in that game and got to see Brewers' fans do the wave in slow mo, fast forward and split down the middle. The fans are a bit crazy to say the least. At the plate, it's time for Corey Hart to make his last pitch to be an All Star. I've done my fair share of voting for him already. I think he's way way under rated as far as his skills go. Look for Corey to try and do it all this weekend, stealing bases, hitting the ball hard and showing off his incredible range in right.
Keys to Victory:
The Rockies are going to give up a lot of runs... A LOT. Their ERAs are a bit bloated because of Coors Field, but Coors isn't that awful to pitchers, especially since the humidor was installed. Anyways, the poor starting pitching really forces the hurting Rockies to try and tack on runs in bunches. If the Rockies plan on being successful, Holliday will need Clint Barnes, Ryan Spilborghs and Garret Atkins to continue deliver. If just one of these guys falls off the wagon, the Rockies could fall just as well.
The Brewers need to show patience following yesterday's game. They had 12 extra-base hits in yesterday's game, but if they try to repeat it against these guys, they'll find themselves striking out more than they would like to. Jimenez has walked 52 in 100 innings and Reynolds 24 in just 57.2 innings. Redman only has one good year under his belt as far as success goes and De La Rosa is just not a good pitcher, as Brewers fans remember. The mistakes will be there to hit, but you'll have to wait on one and not get greedy. The excitement of Sabathia's arrival could make things a little testy and we'll have to see how the young squad will respond.
Predictions and Notes:
- With one move the Brewers have struck fear into the NL Central leading Cubs and Wild Card leading Cardinals. No team is particularly interested in facing Ben Sheets, Manny Parra and C.C. Sabathia in one series. The Rockies get the first look of what this could mean for the surging Brewers.
- Tonight's game will be interesting because the excitement at Miller Park will start early and the fans will no doubt be electric. But I think the more interesting thing is the pitching match up. Jimenez gave up four runs in in six innings of work in his last outing against the Brewers, but was saved by Guillermo Mota's blow up in the eighth. McClung has struggled in his last two outings and benefited from some phenomenal defense in his last start. He continues to show flashes of a consistent starter though, settling down in his last three innings and keeping the Brewers in the game, which they eventually won. Look for the Brewers offense to pick it up again tonight and all series and roll over the streaking Rockies.
- As for the remaining three games, one of these guys is gonna be vulnerable and I'm going to say it's Ben Sheets. Now vulnerable doesn't mean he's going to get rocked, but it does mean that the Brewers offense will handcuff themselves for a game and make another bad pitcher look like an ace. Look for Sheets to have a quality start, but the offense can't pick him up. Sabathia will be lights out in his first performance. His arrival almost guarantees a sell out and the crowd in Milwaukee will be all over every pitch and strike out. Parra deserves props in his own right. I can't imagine what this team would look like if he hadn't shown up and became a solid two starter. Look for him to have continued success this weekend and pick up his ninth win.
- I should be back this afternoon to discuss the ramifications of today's trade. For the current details, check out my last article that lays out the deal.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Sabathia to the Brewers for LaPorta and Prospects
It's all but official. Tom Haudricourt, of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, has it from an inside the source that the Brewers and Indians have exchanged former Cy Young Award winner, C.C. Sabathia for the Brewers top prospect, Matt LaPorta, and two low level minor leaguers, which is likely to include 2007 Milwaukee Minor League Player of the Year, Taylor Green. More information and analysis to come when the deal gets finalized.
Update: The second prospect will not be OFer Lorenzo Cain, who has been mentioned as another candidate earlier. Cain was told to report to Huntsville, the Brewers AA affiliate, in order to take LaPorta's spot on their roster. It has been made perfectly clear that Gamel, Escobar and Salome are still with the team. Look for a press conference to be held tomorrow.
Update 2: It appears that the Brewers have included AAA LHP Zach Jackson and A-ball Rob Bryson. Neither of these two players were even considered to be in the plans of the Brewers for the years to come. Bryson is currently 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in West Virginia and Jackson is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA for Nashville. Another player is involved in the deal and is referred to as being a player to be named later. Bryson's numbers are a bit deceiving, but he does carry a 1.15 WHIP and a 73/20 K/BB ratio. Rumblings continue to suggest the Indians want to look at Taylor Green some more and are considering moving him from third to second. I'll let you know what I find out, but at this point the Brewers appear to have made a steal as far as which prospects they have given up after LaPorta.
Update: The second prospect will not be OFer Lorenzo Cain, who has been mentioned as another candidate earlier. Cain was told to report to Huntsville, the Brewers AA affiliate, in order to take LaPorta's spot on their roster. It has been made perfectly clear that Gamel, Escobar and Salome are still with the team. Look for a press conference to be held tomorrow.
Update 2: It appears that the Brewers have included AAA LHP Zach Jackson and A-ball Rob Bryson. Neither of these two players were even considered to be in the plans of the Brewers for the years to come. Bryson is currently 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in West Virginia and Jackson is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA for Nashville. Another player is involved in the deal and is referred to as being a player to be named later. Bryson's numbers are a bit deceiving, but he does carry a 1.15 WHIP and a 73/20 K/BB ratio. Rumblings continue to suggest the Indians want to look at Taylor Green some more and are considering moving him from third to second. I'll let you know what I find out, but at this point the Brewers appear to have made a steal as far as which prospects they have given up after LaPorta.
Brewers Pirates Series Recap
The Scores:
Milwaukee Brewers 9 Pittsburgh Pirates 1
Milwaukee Brewers 2 Pittsburgh Pirates 2
Milwaukee Brewers 11 Pittsburgh Pirates 6
MVPs of the Series:
JJ Hardy: 7/12; 3 HRs, 2B, 3 Rs, 6 RBIs, BB
Jason Bay: 4/11; HR, 2 BBs, R, RBI
JJ has been hot, I mean really hot. I fear ruining that because I'm a superstitious baseball man at heart , but I'll just throw out his numbers over the last ten games: .500/.533/1.000 with five homeruns, six doubles and 11 RBIs. And that doesn't include today's 3/4, two home run affair. That's enough jinxing, but I do want to give JJ props for sacrificing his 16 game hit streak to move Rickie Weeks to second in Saturday's one run walk off.
No Pirate really stuck out this series. With the exception of this afternoon's game, there wasn't much offense coming out of the visitor's dugout, but Jason Bay was the most consistent of the bunch. I'm not sure how much longer Jason will be willing to stick in Pittsburgh. He won't be a superstar on any other team, but he could really contribute somewhere in the league if given the opportunity.
What Was the Difference?:
This is kind of hard to be completely honest. The Brewers completely dominated the Pirates as the score shows, but the numbers are very odd. For instance, nine hits and four walks resulted in only one run including no GIDPs or pickoffs. And then there was today's affair where both teams gave up six runs in the first three innings, so it wasn't the starting pitching either. In the end, I'm just going to give it to the Brewers bullpen. After giving up six runs without recording an out on Thursday, they bounced back by pitching 10.1 innings of scoreless baseball. The Pirates on the other hand gave up seven runs in their 9.1 innings.
Causes for Excitement:
There weren't too many positives this week for the Pirates as they were swept clean out of Milwaukee after coming down from four runs today, but something good can be taken from today. A year ago baseball experts had tossed Paul Maholm on to their radar as an up and coming star. He was said to have the potential to be an ace this year, but up until his last few starts, Maholm has been quite disappointing. Maholm has given up six runs in his last 22 innings and has had a quality start in six of his last seven appearances.
C.C. Sabathia. This team did what it was supposed to this weekend, which was sweep a very poor team at home. With that being said, the addition of Sabathia could turn this mediocre rotation into a top notch one with one single arm. And to top it off, the Brewers don't have to change their current roster at all. All they'll have to do is move Mitch Stetter back to the minors or trade McClung or Bush to a team that needs more pitching depth. Keep your eyes open since it is likely the trade, if it does happen, will be finalized this evening or tomorrow morning, leaving the afternoon open for a press conference during the Indians off day.
Causes for Concern:
The Pirates defense this weekend was atrocious. If your stuck with mediocre talent at the plate and a particularly below average pitching staff, you need to have the defense to cut them some slack every now and then. The Pirates didn't do that at all committing five errors this series. Be prepared for the sale of Xavier Nady to gain some depth in their system. That may help, but a lot of work needs to be done by the Pirates organization to get this team any where near competitive.
Base running blunders are starting to become all too common for the Crew, and it's about time they did something about it. The Brewers were caught stealing twice and picked off once this inning and every time I turn my head, they're making outs on the bases. But I guess if this is my biggest nit pick about the team, they're doing pretty well at home.
Milwaukee Brewers 9 Pittsburgh Pirates 1
Milwaukee Brewers 2 Pittsburgh Pirates 2
Milwaukee Brewers 11 Pittsburgh Pirates 6
MVPs of the Series:
JJ Hardy: 7/12; 3 HRs, 2B, 3 Rs, 6 RBIs, BB
Jason Bay: 4/11; HR, 2 BBs, R, RBI
JJ has been hot, I mean really hot. I fear ruining that because I'm a superstitious baseball man at heart , but I'll just throw out his numbers over the last ten games: .500/.533/1.000 with five homeruns, six doubles and 11 RBIs. And that doesn't include today's 3/4, two home run affair. That's enough jinxing, but I do want to give JJ props for sacrificing his 16 game hit streak to move Rickie Weeks to second in Saturday's one run walk off.
No Pirate really stuck out this series. With the exception of this afternoon's game, there wasn't much offense coming out of the visitor's dugout, but Jason Bay was the most consistent of the bunch. I'm not sure how much longer Jason will be willing to stick in Pittsburgh. He won't be a superstar on any other team, but he could really contribute somewhere in the league if given the opportunity.
What Was the Difference?:
This is kind of hard to be completely honest. The Brewers completely dominated the Pirates as the score shows, but the numbers are very odd. For instance, nine hits and four walks resulted in only one run including no GIDPs or pickoffs. And then there was today's affair where both teams gave up six runs in the first three innings, so it wasn't the starting pitching either. In the end, I'm just going to give it to the Brewers bullpen. After giving up six runs without recording an out on Thursday, they bounced back by pitching 10.1 innings of scoreless baseball. The Pirates on the other hand gave up seven runs in their 9.1 innings.
Causes for Excitement:
There weren't too many positives this week for the Pirates as they were swept clean out of Milwaukee after coming down from four runs today, but something good can be taken from today. A year ago baseball experts had tossed Paul Maholm on to their radar as an up and coming star. He was said to have the potential to be an ace this year, but up until his last few starts, Maholm has been quite disappointing. Maholm has given up six runs in his last 22 innings and has had a quality start in six of his last seven appearances.
C.C. Sabathia. This team did what it was supposed to this weekend, which was sweep a very poor team at home. With that being said, the addition of Sabathia could turn this mediocre rotation into a top notch one with one single arm. And to top it off, the Brewers don't have to change their current roster at all. All they'll have to do is move Mitch Stetter back to the minors or trade McClung or Bush to a team that needs more pitching depth. Keep your eyes open since it is likely the trade, if it does happen, will be finalized this evening or tomorrow morning, leaving the afternoon open for a press conference during the Indians off day.
Causes for Concern:
The Pirates defense this weekend was atrocious. If your stuck with mediocre talent at the plate and a particularly below average pitching staff, you need to have the defense to cut them some slack every now and then. The Pirates didn't do that at all committing five errors this series. Be prepared for the sale of Xavier Nady to gain some depth in their system. That may help, but a lot of work needs to be done by the Pirates organization to get this team any where near competitive.
Base running blunders are starting to become all too common for the Crew, and it's about time they did something about it. The Brewers were caught stealing twice and picked off once this inning and every time I turn my head, they're making outs on the bases. But I guess if this is my biggest nit pick about the team, they're doing pretty well at home.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
The Brewers Vying for C.C. Sabathia
If you're not up to date on your trade rumors, the Brewers have reportedly been in talks with the Cleveland Indians for about four or five days now. The rumors started flying on Wednesday when Brewers' scouts were spotted watching C.C. Sabathia's last start against the Chicago White Sox. Sabathia went eight innings in that game giving up five runs (four earned) while striking out five in a no decision. At the same time, Indians scouts were being distributed to different Brewers' minor leagues affiliates. Reports had them in Brevard County and Huntsville watching Brewers' Minor League Player of the Year, third baseman, Taylor Green and top prospects Matt Laporta, Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar.
Ken Rosenthal was the first reporter to suggest a deal that were already on the table, suggesting Escobar and LaPorta were offered for Sabathia. But as usual, Rosenthal got whiff of a deal and just spewed out a few names, hoping to hit at least one. Chances are he's right about one of them, but Tom Haudricourt of the Milwakee Journal Sentinal immediately shot down the idea that Melvin would be willing to give up two of the Huntsville five. Buster Olney then threw in JJ Hardy into the bunch. Another farce. Do these guys ever go on true knowledge? Or are they just looking for readers? Anyways, Haurdricout was able to dispel this one as well, since he has more inside opportunities than these guys.
Finally, late last night, Haudricourt spelled out the deal that he believes has been offered. The deal includes Matt LaPorta, Taylor Green and an additional prospect, which he suggests is Lorenzo Cain. This is a pretty good deal for the Indians, though it may or may not be the best off they will receive. The Dodgers, who have a pretty good farm system themselves, are also pursuing Sabathia, and may have a bit more to offer including third baseman, Josh Bell, shortstop, Ivan DeJesus and pitchers James McDonald, Scott Elbert and Jon Meloan. But if this deal does, in fact, go through for the Brewers, what are they really losing.
I suggest not that much. Let's consider the Brewers' current roster situation. In the outfield, they have just signed Ryan Braun to a seven year deal beyond this season. Corey Hart is arbitration eligible after this season, meaning the Brewers have control of him for at least three seasons, and you can fully expect the Brewers to do their best to sign him to a long term deal if at all possible. It probably won't be Ryan Braun numbers, but it will be significant enough. That leaves center field, which at this point is being roamed by Mike Cameron. At 35 and with a $10 million option for next season, you know he'll be gone. This could open the door for Tony Gwynn Jr., but you can only speculate what the organization has in store for center field.
As for the infield, the Brewers appear to be dedicated to JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks for quite some time. Even though Rickie has underperformed considerably, he still shows the physical attributes to be one of the best second basemen in the league, and I have a feeling the Brewers are willing to stick with him for years to come since no one in the system could replace him in a pinch. Hardy is slowly but surely becoming a fan favorite, and if he can continue to produce with average everything, he's the perfect fit for this team. He won't make a ton of money and he'll fill one of the toughest voids to get in baseball. That's what the Brewers like.
The corners are a little sketchy. Bill Hall is under control for four more years, but he's not particularly good and is making a considerable amount of cash. Prince Fielder is under control for three more years and has made it clear that he will not sign a long term deal. But let's be honest, Prince probably only has about 2-3 years left in the NL. His defense is already sketchy and as his body continues to change as a result of his genetics, it will not be getting any better. With that being said, the Brewers will likely keep him around for two more years.
In the minor league system, the Brewers are stacked in the outfield with Michael Brantley, Tony Gwynn Jr., Matt LaPorta, Lorenzo Cain, Caleb Gindl and Cole Gillespie. LaPorta is really the only big time prospect, so getting rid of him seems like a risky situation. But the Brewers infield prospects often have a problem with defense. Their top infielders consist of third baseman Mat Gamel, shortstop Alcides Escobar and 2B Hernan Iribarren. Iribarren really isn't worth talking about. He's clearly a future back-up in the league if he makes it at all.
Gamel has been improving consistently at the hot corner, but his footwork causes him to struggle with his throws to first. While the Brewers roving infield instructor thinks he has the ability to become average with his defense, many believe he'll have to move to first or the outfield if he plans on making it in the bigs. Alcides Escobar has a plus arm to go with plus range. His error total is pretty large, but that goes along with the plus range. There were concerns about his ability at the plate at the beginning of the season, but those have been erradicated since, batting .331/.359/.446. As you can see, he still needs time to understand the strikezone, but he's got talent. Elsewhere, Taylor Green is batting .297/.381/.452 at the hot corner for the A+ Brevard County squad. Green shows an ability to take a walk, which is great and could be a big loss, but he struggles on the defensive end as well. Ultimately the knowledge of the strike zone puts Green one up on Escobar and may be the reason for the Indians inquiry.
If this move goes through the Brewers lose their top prospect in the outfield, a mid-level prospect in the outfield as well and a third base prospect who is at least three years away from the bigs. Interestingly, these moves may help the log jam in the farm system. The Brewers can now move Mat Gamel to the outfield or first base without blocking Matt LaPorta. Furthermore, guys like Michael Brantley and Tony Gwynn Jr. get a little more confidence that they have a future with the big league ball club. On top of that, the Brewers get a top-notch starter who, if he decides to not sign with the team, will net two first round picks. That would likely give Jack and Doug four first round picks (if Sheets left as well), which is hardly a sacrifice in my book, considering Parra and Gallardo have showed enough talent to anchor the rotation.
This move just makes sense. If the Brewers think they're going to trade Fielder in two years, they can move Gamel over to first and play him in Nashville next season after shipping Brad Nelson somewhere. If they sign Hardy long term, they'll get something good in return the following season for a big league-ready Alcides Escobar. In the end, it's a win win for the Crew and the Indians. The Brewers gain flexibility and start to seriously look like a playoff contender, while the Indians build considerable depth into their system and have a major league ready first baseman/outfielder/DH to come up in a pinch. Unless the Dodgers really blow them away, I would not be surprised to see the Brewers get Sabathia in the next week or two. They may have to up the ante a little bit on Lorenzo Cain, but any other outfield prospect may go just fine because Cleveland cannot deal with Delucci and Guitierrez in their outfield for much longer.
Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Ken Rosenthal was the first reporter to suggest a deal that were already on the table, suggesting Escobar and LaPorta were offered for Sabathia. But as usual, Rosenthal got whiff of a deal and just spewed out a few names, hoping to hit at least one. Chances are he's right about one of them, but Tom Haudricourt of the Milwakee Journal Sentinal immediately shot down the idea that Melvin would be willing to give up two of the Huntsville five. Buster Olney then threw in JJ Hardy into the bunch. Another farce. Do these guys ever go on true knowledge? Or are they just looking for readers? Anyways, Haurdricout was able to dispel this one as well, since he has more inside opportunities than these guys.
Finally, late last night, Haudricourt spelled out the deal that he believes has been offered. The deal includes Matt LaPorta, Taylor Green and an additional prospect, which he suggests is Lorenzo Cain. This is a pretty good deal for the Indians, though it may or may not be the best off they will receive. The Dodgers, who have a pretty good farm system themselves, are also pursuing Sabathia, and may have a bit more to offer including third baseman, Josh Bell, shortstop, Ivan DeJesus and pitchers James McDonald, Scott Elbert and Jon Meloan. But if this deal does, in fact, go through for the Brewers, what are they really losing.
I suggest not that much. Let's consider the Brewers' current roster situation. In the outfield, they have just signed Ryan Braun to a seven year deal beyond this season. Corey Hart is arbitration eligible after this season, meaning the Brewers have control of him for at least three seasons, and you can fully expect the Brewers to do their best to sign him to a long term deal if at all possible. It probably won't be Ryan Braun numbers, but it will be significant enough. That leaves center field, which at this point is being roamed by Mike Cameron. At 35 and with a $10 million option for next season, you know he'll be gone. This could open the door for Tony Gwynn Jr., but you can only speculate what the organization has in store for center field.
As for the infield, the Brewers appear to be dedicated to JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks for quite some time. Even though Rickie has underperformed considerably, he still shows the physical attributes to be one of the best second basemen in the league, and I have a feeling the Brewers are willing to stick with him for years to come since no one in the system could replace him in a pinch. Hardy is slowly but surely becoming a fan favorite, and if he can continue to produce with average everything, he's the perfect fit for this team. He won't make a ton of money and he'll fill one of the toughest voids to get in baseball. That's what the Brewers like.
The corners are a little sketchy. Bill Hall is under control for four more years, but he's not particularly good and is making a considerable amount of cash. Prince Fielder is under control for three more years and has made it clear that he will not sign a long term deal. But let's be honest, Prince probably only has about 2-3 years left in the NL. His defense is already sketchy and as his body continues to change as a result of his genetics, it will not be getting any better. With that being said, the Brewers will likely keep him around for two more years.
In the minor league system, the Brewers are stacked in the outfield with Michael Brantley, Tony Gwynn Jr., Matt LaPorta, Lorenzo Cain, Caleb Gindl and Cole Gillespie. LaPorta is really the only big time prospect, so getting rid of him seems like a risky situation. But the Brewers infield prospects often have a problem with defense. Their top infielders consist of third baseman Mat Gamel, shortstop Alcides Escobar and 2B Hernan Iribarren. Iribarren really isn't worth talking about. He's clearly a future back-up in the league if he makes it at all.
Gamel has been improving consistently at the hot corner, but his footwork causes him to struggle with his throws to first. While the Brewers roving infield instructor thinks he has the ability to become average with his defense, many believe he'll have to move to first or the outfield if he plans on making it in the bigs. Alcides Escobar has a plus arm to go with plus range. His error total is pretty large, but that goes along with the plus range. There were concerns about his ability at the plate at the beginning of the season, but those have been erradicated since, batting .331/.359/.446. As you can see, he still needs time to understand the strikezone, but he's got talent. Elsewhere, Taylor Green is batting .297/.381/.452 at the hot corner for the A+ Brevard County squad. Green shows an ability to take a walk, which is great and could be a big loss, but he struggles on the defensive end as well. Ultimately the knowledge of the strike zone puts Green one up on Escobar and may be the reason for the Indians inquiry.
If this move goes through the Brewers lose their top prospect in the outfield, a mid-level prospect in the outfield as well and a third base prospect who is at least three years away from the bigs. Interestingly, these moves may help the log jam in the farm system. The Brewers can now move Mat Gamel to the outfield or first base without blocking Matt LaPorta. Furthermore, guys like Michael Brantley and Tony Gwynn Jr. get a little more confidence that they have a future with the big league ball club. On top of that, the Brewers get a top-notch starter who, if he decides to not sign with the team, will net two first round picks. That would likely give Jack and Doug four first round picks (if Sheets left as well), which is hardly a sacrifice in my book, considering Parra and Gallardo have showed enough talent to anchor the rotation.
This move just makes sense. If the Brewers think they're going to trade Fielder in two years, they can move Gamel over to first and play him in Nashville next season after shipping Brad Nelson somewhere. If they sign Hardy long term, they'll get something good in return the following season for a big league-ready Alcides Escobar. In the end, it's a win win for the Crew and the Indians. The Brewers gain flexibility and start to seriously look like a playoff contender, while the Indians build considerable depth into their system and have a major league ready first baseman/outfielder/DH to come up in a pinch. Unless the Dodgers really blow them away, I would not be surprised to see the Brewers get Sabathia in the next week or two. They may have to up the ante a little bit on Lorenzo Cain, but any other outfield prospect may go just fine because Cleveland cannot deal with Delucci and Guitierrez in their outfield for much longer.
Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Belated Brewers Pirates Series Preview
My apologies for a lack of a D'Backs and Brewers Series recap. It is the holiday weekend afterall, and it just so happens to be my brother's birthday as well. As for the Conor Jackson blogger who stopped by, my apologies for not giving a Game Four recap, but I often don't recap the last game, and do a series recap and series preview instead. As for the game itself, it was incredibly well played by the Brewers for eight innings and the same can be said for the D'Backs the last three. The last inning paid off. On to the series preview.
The Series:
Pittsburgh Pirates (40-44) @ Milwaukee Brewers (46-39)
Who's on Tap?:
July 4th: Ben Sheets (9-3, 2.83 ERA) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (5-7, 6.18 ERA)
July 5th: Dave Bush (4-8, 5.06 ERA) vs. Paul Maholm (5-5, 4.28 ERA)
July 6th: Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.30 ERA) vs. Zach Duke (4-5, 3.88 ERA)
Who Should You Watch?:
Since game is already in the books in favor of the Brewers, I put up the numbers for Sheets and Gorzelanny that existed prior to the game. As a result, I'll have to focus on the last two games with regard to who you should watch. For the Pirates, the first thing you should recognize is Zach Duke may have stopped being a disappointment. After showing how good he could be in 2005 with a 1.81 ERA, Duke struggled with a 4.41 and 5.53 ERA the last two years. But Duke has been coming around and has looked pretty solid in his last seven outings, lowering his ERA .60 runs in the process. He's had mixed results against the Brewers, so it'll be interesting to see which Duke shows up on Sunday. At the plate, the Brewers should watch out for catcher, Ryan Doumit, who is batting .337/.384/.594. He makes the middle of this lineup a little more threatening than usual. Brewers pitchers cannot take a batter off in this lineup any more.
For the Brewers, I'm not going to say the shortstop. Refer to my comments at the BrewersNation to understand why. Instead, I'm going to point to Bill Hall. Yeah, Billy had three hits yesterday and I sound like I'm jumping on the bandwagon, but the fact of the matter is the Brewers are facing all left-handers this weekend. Hall is hitting .360/.417/.640 against south paws. While these numbers are above and beyond his career, Hall is going to have to rely on this big split to ensure him regular playing time. On the mound, you have to watch Dave Bush again. With the all the rumors about C.C. Sabathia going to the Brewers in the coming weeks, Bush has to wonder how much longer he'll be standing in that rotation. I'll look at all the those rumors later this afternoon.
Keys to Victory:
The Pirates are going to need to take advantage of a Brewers struggling bullpen. They had their shot yesterday by getting Sheets out in just 5.2 innings, but Villanueva took advantage of an opportunity and saved the bullpen following their debauchery on Thursday. If the Pirates are able to do something similar to that tonight, which they should, they'll get a shot at some of the relief pitchers who aren't on their game. So I guess the key is to work the count, be patient and get that starter out of there, even if you don't necessarily have success against him.
In the first base dugout, the Brewers will need the middle of their lineup to start producing and stop killing rallies. Fielder and Braun combined for four hits during the road trip, not to mention their fair share of double plays and strikeouts. They won't have to carry the Brewers, but they need to be more productive and patient at the plate to allow the Brewers a final run before the All-Star break. Prince should struggle a bit more because of the all lefty rotation, but Braun should come back strong this series and take adantage of all of the opportunities he gets.
Predictions and Notes:
- I would have picked the Brewers in yesteday's game in a heartbeat with Sheets and Gorzelanny on the mound. I just didn't think it would be that big of a blow out considering what happened Thursday. Tonight's game should be the hardest for the Brewers considering Suppan has had quite a bit of success against the Pirates in his career. Bush is going to struggle a bit, but I'm guessing he'll make it six and give up four, which will hopefully be good enough for the Brewers offense. Look for Gagne and Riske to take the 7th and 8th innings if it comes down to it. Gagne was quite impressive in his first outing back. His changeup finally had some life and he was locating his fastball. If they can get him to be useful, the Brewers could be a serious force to be reckconed with.
- As long as the Brewers win, they gain ground on someone since the Cubs are in St. Louis this weekend. As a result, every game is an opportunity and every win gets them a little bit closer to the opportunities they have been looking for.
- Keep your eyes open this afternoon, as I'm going to look at the Sabathia trade rumors and their ramifications for the future of this team.
The Series:
Pittsburgh Pirates (40-44) @ Milwaukee Brewers (46-39)
Who's on Tap?:
July 4th: Ben Sheets (9-3, 2.83 ERA) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (5-7, 6.18 ERA)
July 5th: Dave Bush (4-8, 5.06 ERA) vs. Paul Maholm (5-5, 4.28 ERA)
July 6th: Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.30 ERA) vs. Zach Duke (4-5, 3.88 ERA)
Who Should You Watch?:
Since game is already in the books in favor of the Brewers, I put up the numbers for Sheets and Gorzelanny that existed prior to the game. As a result, I'll have to focus on the last two games with regard to who you should watch. For the Pirates, the first thing you should recognize is Zach Duke may have stopped being a disappointment. After showing how good he could be in 2005 with a 1.81 ERA, Duke struggled with a 4.41 and 5.53 ERA the last two years. But Duke has been coming around and has looked pretty solid in his last seven outings, lowering his ERA .60 runs in the process. He's had mixed results against the Brewers, so it'll be interesting to see which Duke shows up on Sunday. At the plate, the Brewers should watch out for catcher, Ryan Doumit, who is batting .337/.384/.594. He makes the middle of this lineup a little more threatening than usual. Brewers pitchers cannot take a batter off in this lineup any more.
For the Brewers, I'm not going to say the shortstop. Refer to my comments at the BrewersNation to understand why. Instead, I'm going to point to Bill Hall. Yeah, Billy had three hits yesterday and I sound like I'm jumping on the bandwagon, but the fact of the matter is the Brewers are facing all left-handers this weekend. Hall is hitting .360/.417/.640 against south paws. While these numbers are above and beyond his career, Hall is going to have to rely on this big split to ensure him regular playing time. On the mound, you have to watch Dave Bush again. With the all the rumors about C.C. Sabathia going to the Brewers in the coming weeks, Bush has to wonder how much longer he'll be standing in that rotation. I'll look at all the those rumors later this afternoon.
Keys to Victory:
The Pirates are going to need to take advantage of a Brewers struggling bullpen. They had their shot yesterday by getting Sheets out in just 5.2 innings, but Villanueva took advantage of an opportunity and saved the bullpen following their debauchery on Thursday. If the Pirates are able to do something similar to that tonight, which they should, they'll get a shot at some of the relief pitchers who aren't on their game. So I guess the key is to work the count, be patient and get that starter out of there, even if you don't necessarily have success against him.
In the first base dugout, the Brewers will need the middle of their lineup to start producing and stop killing rallies. Fielder and Braun combined for four hits during the road trip, not to mention their fair share of double plays and strikeouts. They won't have to carry the Brewers, but they need to be more productive and patient at the plate to allow the Brewers a final run before the All-Star break. Prince should struggle a bit more because of the all lefty rotation, but Braun should come back strong this series and take adantage of all of the opportunities he gets.
Predictions and Notes:
- I would have picked the Brewers in yesteday's game in a heartbeat with Sheets and Gorzelanny on the mound. I just didn't think it would be that big of a blow out considering what happened Thursday. Tonight's game should be the hardest for the Brewers considering Suppan has had quite a bit of success against the Pirates in his career. Bush is going to struggle a bit, but I'm guessing he'll make it six and give up four, which will hopefully be good enough for the Brewers offense. Look for Gagne and Riske to take the 7th and 8th innings if it comes down to it. Gagne was quite impressive in his first outing back. His changeup finally had some life and he was locating his fastball. If they can get him to be useful, the Brewers could be a serious force to be reckconed with.
- As long as the Brewers win, they gain ground on someone since the Cubs are in St. Louis this weekend. As a result, every game is an opportunity and every win gets them a little bit closer to the opportunities they have been looking for.
- Keep your eyes open this afternoon, as I'm going to look at the Sabathia trade rumors and their ramifications for the future of this team.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Brewers Diamondbacks Game Three Recap
The Score:
Milwaukee Brewers 4 Arizona D'Backs 3
MVPs of the Game:
Mike Cameron: 2/4; 2B, 2 RBIs (Tying and Go-Ahead)
Yusmeiro Petit: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 Ks (ND)
Game Recap:
The Arizona Diamondbacks were given chance after chance after chance to blow out the Brewers, but found themselves getting two significant outs on the bases that would prove important in the end. Yusmeiro Petit was made to look like an ace all night by a Brewer squad whose known for this kind of thing, while Seth McClung fought himself, the strike zone and a lot of Diamondbacks on the way to 5.1 IP, but only two runs. While the Brewers were quiet the first five innings of the night, they managed to score once in each of the last four innings, taking advantage of a huge error in the top of the ninth. Despite a little threat in the bottom half of the inning, Salomon Torres induced a 5-3 double play to take game three of this series and secure a .500 road trip for the Brewers.
I didn't get to watch too much of the game, but from what I did see, Yusmeiro Petit isn't that great, but the free swinging or perhaps flailing made him look like he was. Don't get me wrong. Petit made some excellent pitches, but the Brewers were neither selective or smart when it came to the stuff Petit was throwing. As a result he would only need 77 pitches to get through six innings. Seth McClung, on the other hand, was a picture of inconsistency, giving up 10 baserunners in his 5.1 innings. But Seth got a little lucky and on top of it has really good stuff.
The luck started early with a rip by Stephen Drew to the right center gap. Drew tried to extend the hit to a triple, but was gunned down by Craig Counsell and Mike Cameron at third. Orlando Hudson followed up with a bunt single, which would have moved Drew to third and brought up Conor Jackson with two on and one out. Instead, McClung would get Jackson to look at a third strike to leave the inning unharmed. An inning later, it would happen again. McClung loaded the bases after giving up two singles and hitting Justin Upton to bring up Miguel Montero. Montero would line somewhat sharply to Craig Counsell, who misread the ball and deflected it to center field, allowing Chad Tracy to score. But the D'Backs got greedy as Chris Young tried to go home as well with no one out at the bases loaded. Counsell would toss him out at the plate to save a run. McClung would get out of the inning without any further harm.
The Diamondbacks would tack on another in the third following Orlando Hudson's second of four hits on the night. He would score on a Chris Young single two batters later to make the game 2-0. Thankfully for the Brewers, McClung would settle down after this only give up one more hit the rest of the night, while Petit kept the Brewers at bay. That was, at least, until the sixth inning. Petit started the inning by hitting Jason Kendall on the shoulder. Nothing like free base runners when you only have one hit on the night. After a sac bunt and a ground out that moved Kendall to third, JJ Hardy singled him in to shrink the lead to one.
The Brewers would do more damage with two outs in the seventh on a Gabe Kapler triple, followed by a Mike Cameron double to tie things up. Things got a little interesting in the bottom half of the inning, however, when Drew and Hudson led off the inning with singles and were sacrificed over by Conor Jackson. The Brewers commentators whined about the sac bunt, but I thought it was an impressive selfless move by Jackson. Melvin trusts his bullpen and for good reason. If they can get just one more run, you have to think you're going to get the victory. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for the D'Backs. Ned Yost ran Brian Shouse out there to replace Villanueva, who promptly induced a sharp ground ball right at Russell Branyan, who threw out Stephen Drew at the plate for the second out. Another ground out to Branyan ended the inning and the threat.
Three pitches later, on an 0-2 count, Rickie Weeks smoked a line drive down the left field line that was just high enough to get over the fence. Fans will cheer for him now I guess. D'Backs' fans, on the other hand, were cheering for Justin Upton, who promptly took the first pitch he saw from David Riske in the bottom half of the inning to the same exact spot as Rickie to tie it up yet again. Riske looked really good, but just found a guy who was looking dead red and drilled it.
Going into the ninth 3-3, the Brewers looked extremely tense. The D'Backs had the benefit of putting their closer on the mound, while the Brewers were stuck with Mota or Gagne if they went to the bottom of the ninth without a lead. Russell Branyan lead off the inning and was thinking homerun the whole time. It proved worthless, as he pulled a ball to first base. But worthless it was not. Mark Reynolds promptly booted the ball to right field and Branyan made it to first safely on the error. After a sacrifice bunt by Gabe Kapler, Mike Cameron worked ahead 2-0 and fouled off three pitches before hitting a ball to the gap in left center, which scored Branyan easily.
After a shallow fly out by Kendall Joe Dillon absolutely destroyed a mistake 412 feet to dead center. Unfortunately, the wall in Arizona is 413 feet and Chris Young made a jumping catch against the wall to save an insurance run. Salomon Torres wouldn't need the run though. He worked around a lead off single and good baserunning by Orlando Hudson to get into scoring position on the fly out from Conor Jackson. After walking Mark Reynolds, Torres got Young to ground to Russell Branyan who touched third and tossed to Prince to end the game.
Game Changing Play:
It's an easy one, Mark Reynolds error. Lyon was pitching well, but Reynolds defense, which has been pretty rough all series, pinned a loss on the closer's lapel.
Notes:
- The strike zone last night was big, small and everything in between. The consistency of Jeff Nelson's calls was incredibly awful. To his credit though, it wasn't one sided and both teams received their fair share of calls.
- My friends over at BrewersNation mentioned the Stephen Drew play at home in the seventh in which Drew tried to kick the ball from Jason Kendall's glove, which at that point was almost chest high. It was a Bush League play to say the least and I'm surprised there wasn't any barking afterwards. I don't care who it is, you never do something as dangerous as that. Those spikes aren't forgiving at all.
- Brian Shouse has gone unnoticed for this Brewers team for a long time and has been the most consistent reliever for the Crew since arriving two years ago. Yet, somehow, nobody notices. Let's be honest, a 1.84 ERA in 29.1 innings is impressive no matter how many times the splits favor you. Brewers fans need to give this guy some more support and cheers. He's been pretty much lights out and has been pivotal with inherited runners.
- Both the Cubs and Cards struggled last night, so the Brewers simply stayed on pace. And that's all you can really hope for. Just keep winning, so you don't lose ground. At some point you'll be able to leap frog someone. Zambrano comes back on Friday for the Cubs, so perhaps their struggles will be quelled with their ace's return. The Brewers know full well what it's like to lose an ace and fall off the wagon.
- There's discussion going on over in Arizona about the Brewers making a trade with them sometime soon. Eric Byrnes is likely done for the season with a torn hamstring, which he did on Monday after trying to steal third, so the D'Backs will need an outfielder badly. That's something Brewers have plenty of and I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for someone like Gwynn for a Pena, Qualls or Juan Cruz. If the Brewers were serious about getting a starter, there's a slim chance the Brewers could pry away a Max Scherzer or a Dan Haren away with some of their big time prospects. However, this is big time speculation and using Darron Sutton's television gossip doesn't necessarily mean anything is in the works. Any speculations from the folks around here?
- Ryan Braun got the night off like I suggested, and surprisingly Yost is likely to bench him again this afternoon, which I suggested yesterday as well. God, I love it when I suggest something and it comes true. It doesn't boost my ego, but it's always nice to get something you ask for. Maybe Robin Yount, who was chilling out during BP yesterday, can have a talk with Braunie and teach him how to take an outside slider.
What's on Tap?:
The Brewers finally get to take on an ace this afternoon. I can't remember the last time that has happened, but Brandon Webb is toeing the rubber against Manny Parra. It should be an incredible pitching match up if Parra can avoid the free passes. The series is currently 5-1 in favor of the Brewers since the sweep of AZ in Milwaukee, so the D'Backs may be hell bent on making this season series not too overwhelmingly awful. The game is at 2 CST, so try and keep and eye on it if you get the chance.
Milwaukee Brewers 4 Arizona D'Backs 3
MVPs of the Game:
Mike Cameron: 2/4; 2B, 2 RBIs (Tying and Go-Ahead)
Yusmeiro Petit: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 Ks (ND)
Game Recap:
The Arizona Diamondbacks were given chance after chance after chance to blow out the Brewers, but found themselves getting two significant outs on the bases that would prove important in the end. Yusmeiro Petit was made to look like an ace all night by a Brewer squad whose known for this kind of thing, while Seth McClung fought himself, the strike zone and a lot of Diamondbacks on the way to 5.1 IP, but only two runs. While the Brewers were quiet the first five innings of the night, they managed to score once in each of the last four innings, taking advantage of a huge error in the top of the ninth. Despite a little threat in the bottom half of the inning, Salomon Torres induced a 5-3 double play to take game three of this series and secure a .500 road trip for the Brewers.
I didn't get to watch too much of the game, but from what I did see, Yusmeiro Petit isn't that great, but the free swinging or perhaps flailing made him look like he was. Don't get me wrong. Petit made some excellent pitches, but the Brewers were neither selective or smart when it came to the stuff Petit was throwing. As a result he would only need 77 pitches to get through six innings. Seth McClung, on the other hand, was a picture of inconsistency, giving up 10 baserunners in his 5.1 innings. But Seth got a little lucky and on top of it has really good stuff.
The luck started early with a rip by Stephen Drew to the right center gap. Drew tried to extend the hit to a triple, but was gunned down by Craig Counsell and Mike Cameron at third. Orlando Hudson followed up with a bunt single, which would have moved Drew to third and brought up Conor Jackson with two on and one out. Instead, McClung would get Jackson to look at a third strike to leave the inning unharmed. An inning later, it would happen again. McClung loaded the bases after giving up two singles and hitting Justin Upton to bring up Miguel Montero. Montero would line somewhat sharply to Craig Counsell, who misread the ball and deflected it to center field, allowing Chad Tracy to score. But the D'Backs got greedy as Chris Young tried to go home as well with no one out at the bases loaded. Counsell would toss him out at the plate to save a run. McClung would get out of the inning without any further harm.
The Diamondbacks would tack on another in the third following Orlando Hudson's second of four hits on the night. He would score on a Chris Young single two batters later to make the game 2-0. Thankfully for the Brewers, McClung would settle down after this only give up one more hit the rest of the night, while Petit kept the Brewers at bay. That was, at least, until the sixth inning. Petit started the inning by hitting Jason Kendall on the shoulder. Nothing like free base runners when you only have one hit on the night. After a sac bunt and a ground out that moved Kendall to third, JJ Hardy singled him in to shrink the lead to one.
The Brewers would do more damage with two outs in the seventh on a Gabe Kapler triple, followed by a Mike Cameron double to tie things up. Things got a little interesting in the bottom half of the inning, however, when Drew and Hudson led off the inning with singles and were sacrificed over by Conor Jackson. The Brewers commentators whined about the sac bunt, but I thought it was an impressive selfless move by Jackson. Melvin trusts his bullpen and for good reason. If they can get just one more run, you have to think you're going to get the victory. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for the D'Backs. Ned Yost ran Brian Shouse out there to replace Villanueva, who promptly induced a sharp ground ball right at Russell Branyan, who threw out Stephen Drew at the plate for the second out. Another ground out to Branyan ended the inning and the threat.
Three pitches later, on an 0-2 count, Rickie Weeks smoked a line drive down the left field line that was just high enough to get over the fence. Fans will cheer for him now I guess. D'Backs' fans, on the other hand, were cheering for Justin Upton, who promptly took the first pitch he saw from David Riske in the bottom half of the inning to the same exact spot as Rickie to tie it up yet again. Riske looked really good, but just found a guy who was looking dead red and drilled it.
Going into the ninth 3-3, the Brewers looked extremely tense. The D'Backs had the benefit of putting their closer on the mound, while the Brewers were stuck with Mota or Gagne if they went to the bottom of the ninth without a lead. Russell Branyan lead off the inning and was thinking homerun the whole time. It proved worthless, as he pulled a ball to first base. But worthless it was not. Mark Reynolds promptly booted the ball to right field and Branyan made it to first safely on the error. After a sacrifice bunt by Gabe Kapler, Mike Cameron worked ahead 2-0 and fouled off three pitches before hitting a ball to the gap in left center, which scored Branyan easily.
After a shallow fly out by Kendall Joe Dillon absolutely destroyed a mistake 412 feet to dead center. Unfortunately, the wall in Arizona is 413 feet and Chris Young made a jumping catch against the wall to save an insurance run. Salomon Torres wouldn't need the run though. He worked around a lead off single and good baserunning by Orlando Hudson to get into scoring position on the fly out from Conor Jackson. After walking Mark Reynolds, Torres got Young to ground to Russell Branyan who touched third and tossed to Prince to end the game.
Game Changing Play:
It's an easy one, Mark Reynolds error. Lyon was pitching well, but Reynolds defense, which has been pretty rough all series, pinned a loss on the closer's lapel.
Notes:
- The strike zone last night was big, small and everything in between. The consistency of Jeff Nelson's calls was incredibly awful. To his credit though, it wasn't one sided and both teams received their fair share of calls.
- My friends over at BrewersNation mentioned the Stephen Drew play at home in the seventh in which Drew tried to kick the ball from Jason Kendall's glove, which at that point was almost chest high. It was a Bush League play to say the least and I'm surprised there wasn't any barking afterwards. I don't care who it is, you never do something as dangerous as that. Those spikes aren't forgiving at all.
- Brian Shouse has gone unnoticed for this Brewers team for a long time and has been the most consistent reliever for the Crew since arriving two years ago. Yet, somehow, nobody notices. Let's be honest, a 1.84 ERA in 29.1 innings is impressive no matter how many times the splits favor you. Brewers fans need to give this guy some more support and cheers. He's been pretty much lights out and has been pivotal with inherited runners.
- Both the Cubs and Cards struggled last night, so the Brewers simply stayed on pace. And that's all you can really hope for. Just keep winning, so you don't lose ground. At some point you'll be able to leap frog someone. Zambrano comes back on Friday for the Cubs, so perhaps their struggles will be quelled with their ace's return. The Brewers know full well what it's like to lose an ace and fall off the wagon.
- There's discussion going on over in Arizona about the Brewers making a trade with them sometime soon. Eric Byrnes is likely done for the season with a torn hamstring, which he did on Monday after trying to steal third, so the D'Backs will need an outfielder badly. That's something Brewers have plenty of and I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for someone like Gwynn for a Pena, Qualls or Juan Cruz. If the Brewers were serious about getting a starter, there's a slim chance the Brewers could pry away a Max Scherzer or a Dan Haren away with some of their big time prospects. However, this is big time speculation and using Darron Sutton's television gossip doesn't necessarily mean anything is in the works. Any speculations from the folks around here?
- Ryan Braun got the night off like I suggested, and surprisingly Yost is likely to bench him again this afternoon, which I suggested yesterday as well. God, I love it when I suggest something and it comes true. It doesn't boost my ego, but it's always nice to get something you ask for. Maybe Robin Yount, who was chilling out during BP yesterday, can have a talk with Braunie and teach him how to take an outside slider.
What's on Tap?:
The Brewers finally get to take on an ace this afternoon. I can't remember the last time that has happened, but Brandon Webb is toeing the rubber against Manny Parra. It should be an incredible pitching match up if Parra can avoid the free passes. The series is currently 5-1 in favor of the Brewers since the sweep of AZ in Milwaukee, so the D'Backs may be hell bent on making this season series not too overwhelmingly awful. The game is at 2 CST, so try and keep and eye on it if you get the chance.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Reviewing My Projections.
It's incredible to think that I started this in January and it's now July and I haven't stalled once. Yes, trying to write every day can be treacherous, but I've realized that I have plenty of readers, as quiet as they may be, who like to see the numbers and appreciate what I've been doing during the season. I love this team, and though I complain considerably about them, they get my full fledged support at all costs. I mean come on, I'm from Green Bay and I've had season tickets since 1991. You know you're loyal when you go watch games where Lindy Infante was your coach.
Anyways, I wanted to do something fun. A lot of you weren't around in January and February when I first started this blog. But at that time, to make things go quickly, I went through every position on the field, reviewed their 2007 season and made some projections on the fly. So today, I want to look at all of those that I projected and compare them to their mid-season numbers. We'll see how dead on/off I was. Projections, unfortunately, fall victim to problems such as health or position changes, so I'm going to be off on a number of them regardless. Here it goes... (If you're looking for these posts, they're all labeled Position Analysis and can be found in the side bar under the month of February.)
I began with Starting Pitching during the projections.
Ben Sheets: 30 GS, 16-8, 3.92 ERA, 195.2 IP
Jeff Suppan: 32 GS, 14-12, 4.78 ERA, 202 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 30 GS, 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 195 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 32 GS, 10-12, 4.42 ERA, 175 IP
Chris Bushuano: I said it was a toss up and didn't project, but I did project Bush to pitch in relief for 52 G, 5-7, 4.90 ERA
Their actual stats:
Ben Sheets: 16 GS, 9-2, 2.83 ERA, 111.1 IP
Jeff Suppan: 17 GS, 5-6, 4.30 ERA, 98.1 IP
Dave Bush: 15 GS, 4-8, 5.06 ERA, 90.2 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 21 G, 3-5, 5.40 ERA, 68.1 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 3 GS, 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 20 IP
Unfortunately, at the time of writing this, Capuano wasn't about to get Tommy John and Parra was a long shot in the rotation before Gallardo showed up. I think my ERAs are going to be pretty spot on. Suppan has been reverting to the mean the last few starts and has a considerable amount of unearned runs under his belt. Gallardo is going to be an ace, which is awesome. If that knee is healthy, we might be able to get away with Sheets being gone and possibly picking up a cheaper two or three starter to make up for it. Unfortunately, Villanueva is doing what I expected him to do, which is have a real rough year. But who would have thought Sheets would be pitching this well? He's blowing a lot of people's projections out of the water. If he sustains this and Parra continues his success, the Brewers' would be in great great shape. Imagine a rotation with Sheets, Gallardo and Parra where Parra and Gallardo are making less than a million bucks for at least two more years.
Relief Pitching Projections:
Guillermo Mota: 47 G, 2-4, 5.12 ERA
Salomon Torres: 65 G, 6-2, 3.88 ERA
David Riske: 65 G, 2.45 ERA (I didn't project, but I did say he was going to stay the same, Oops)
Brian Shouse: 74 G, 2-1, 3.50 ERA
Derrick Turnbow: I'm too ashamed to reprint these, you can look it up.
Eric Gagne: 62 G, 42/50 S, 2.99 ERA
Their Actual Stats:
Guillermo Mota: 30 G, 2-5, 4.22 ERA
Salomon Torres: 39 G, 4-1, 2.56 ERA, 14/16 S
David Riske: 22 G, 0-1, 4.88 ERA
Brian Shouse: 37 G, 3-0, 1.88 ERA
Eric Gagne: 20 G, 1-2, 6.98 ERA
I think I'll ultimately be right about Mota. Torres and Shouse have been phenomenal, and again, just looking at Shouse's numbers have to excite you. The guys has just been unbelievable for the Brewers since his arrival and I think many of us just take it for granted. Props to you Mr. Shouse. On my projection of Gagne I said I was going to completely nail it or get completely rocked because that's what the Gagne signing was. As for Riske, something is not right as pointed out at BrewersNation. I think elbow problems are causing him some serious struggles, though he is very streaky and that could pay off for the Brewers in teh end.
Catcher Predictions:
I didn't make them. I spent an an entire day writing a full biography of Jason Kendall. I didn't want to talk about him any more, but suggested about a .350 OBP, which is pretty much exactly where he's hovering. He was a great pick up, and that's all I'll say.
Infielder Projections:
Prince Fielder: .298/.409/.599, 47 HRs, 136 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .274/.391/.480, 22 HRs, 68 RBIs, 24 SBs, 12 Es
Bill Hall: .265/.333/.440, 16 HRs, 70 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .270/.331/.400, 18-20 HRs
Actual Stats:
Prince Fielder: .272/.360/.487, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .215/.325/.364, 7 HRs, 22 RBIs, 11 SBs, 5 Es
Bill Hall: .208/.271/.379, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .269/.341/.427, 8 HRs, 30 RBIs
Nobody expected Fielder's power numbers to drop this far down, but there's still plenty of time in the season for him to get his numbers back up. Prince has lost a lot of patience at the plate the last few weeks, which is why he was benched last night. Braun will be doing the same some time soon as well i imagine. Weeks has been a disappointment, but his IsoP continues to be phenomenal. Those numbers should improve and if he just gets to a BA of .250, perhaps fans won't be so upset with the guy. On the upside, his error total and stolen bases have been very very good, though go unnoticed. Hall definitely has time to revert to the numbers I expected from him, especially since he'll only be facing lefties for a while. I don't think many people expected him to drop off this bad, but I knew he wasn't going to be bashing the ball all over the field like he did in 2005. I have JJ hardy pegged right on. He's straight average at the plate with average power. This recent streak of his has been phenomenal, but he will ultimately continue to bring these sorts of consistent numbers to the game at shortstop, which is fine by me.
Outfield Projections:
Corey Hart: .287/.370/.490, 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs
Ryan Braun: .288/.370/.620, 40 HRs, 119 RBIs, 27 SBs
Mike Cameron: .249/.347/.514, 20 HRs, Gold Glove Leadership
Actual Stats:
Corey Hart: .293/.335/.516, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs, 12 SB
Ryan Braun: .278/.313/.536, 20 HRs, 58 RBIs, 8 SB
Mike Cameron: .215/.294/.459, 12 HRs, 28 RBIs, 6 SB
You can see why I thought this team was going to be awesome this year based what i thought they would do as far as OBP stands, but these guys have regressed rather than progressed in their young age and the results have been variable. Hart's power is there as is his average. If he took a few more walks, his slugging would improve just as much because it would lower his ABs considerably. The same can be said about Ryan Bruan. I thought Braun would start to realize that pitchers aren't going to pitch him the same and will tend to nit pick. Instead, Braun has been putty in their hands. When he gets a hold of it, it goes a long way, but a 35 IsoP is awful for this team. Cameron has been amazing in center field, but awful at the plate, though his 79 OBP cuts him some slack. I didn't expect too much out of the guy, just walks, homeruns and plenty of defense, but he needs to get that BA up to .240 for him to keep his job.
The Bench Projections:
Craig Counsell: .235/.317/.310
Gabe Gross: .255/.360/.440
Joe Dillon: .240/.330/.412
Tony Gwynn Jr. .270/.340/.390
Gabe Kapler: .260/.329/.450
Actual Stats:
Craig Counsell: .240/.338/.339
Joe Dillon: .230/.356/.328
Gabe Gross: .209/.352/.279
Tony Gwynn Jr.: .200/.293/.229
Gabe Kapler: .307/.350/.496
These numbers are always tough simply because of samples sizes, but the biggest surprise is obviously Gabe Kapler. Though his IsoP has been pretty terrible, Kapler's power, defense and grittiness has been a blessing to this team. When he and Dillon are placed in the lineup, we're not losing too much and often times we gain something in return. Gabe Gross' power was awful here, but he got on base A LOT and has been pretty darn good for TB in clutch situations. On the year he's batting .234/.342/.404. Not bad for adjusting to the AL. Counsell is doing what he does every year: below average BA, average OBP. And that's fine I guess. He came up big for the Crew this year when Rickie and JJ went down, which I appreciate. I just think there's better utility players out there who we could pay just as much with a better up side.
Well that's it. I think it's interesting how close I was on some and how incredibly off I was on others. Afterall, all you can do is go on intuition and my intuition was right on some, awful on others. There's still more than enough time to give my numbers some sort of validity, but I'd rather just worry about the game and enjoy it rather than think about my own ego.
Anyways, I wanted to do something fun. A lot of you weren't around in January and February when I first started this blog. But at that time, to make things go quickly, I went through every position on the field, reviewed their 2007 season and made some projections on the fly. So today, I want to look at all of those that I projected and compare them to their mid-season numbers. We'll see how dead on/off I was. Projections, unfortunately, fall victim to problems such as health or position changes, so I'm going to be off on a number of them regardless. Here it goes... (If you're looking for these posts, they're all labeled Position Analysis and can be found in the side bar under the month of February.)
I began with Starting Pitching during the projections.
Ben Sheets: 30 GS, 16-8, 3.92 ERA, 195.2 IP
Jeff Suppan: 32 GS, 14-12, 4.78 ERA, 202 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 30 GS, 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 195 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 32 GS, 10-12, 4.42 ERA, 175 IP
Chris Bushuano: I said it was a toss up and didn't project, but I did project Bush to pitch in relief for 52 G, 5-7, 4.90 ERA
Their actual stats:
Ben Sheets: 16 GS, 9-2, 2.83 ERA, 111.1 IP
Jeff Suppan: 17 GS, 5-6, 4.30 ERA, 98.1 IP
Dave Bush: 15 GS, 4-8, 5.06 ERA, 90.2 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 21 G, 3-5, 5.40 ERA, 68.1 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 3 GS, 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 20 IP
Unfortunately, at the time of writing this, Capuano wasn't about to get Tommy John and Parra was a long shot in the rotation before Gallardo showed up. I think my ERAs are going to be pretty spot on. Suppan has been reverting to the mean the last few starts and has a considerable amount of unearned runs under his belt. Gallardo is going to be an ace, which is awesome. If that knee is healthy, we might be able to get away with Sheets being gone and possibly picking up a cheaper two or three starter to make up for it. Unfortunately, Villanueva is doing what I expected him to do, which is have a real rough year. But who would have thought Sheets would be pitching this well? He's blowing a lot of people's projections out of the water. If he sustains this and Parra continues his success, the Brewers' would be in great great shape. Imagine a rotation with Sheets, Gallardo and Parra where Parra and Gallardo are making less than a million bucks for at least two more years.
Relief Pitching Projections:
Guillermo Mota: 47 G, 2-4, 5.12 ERA
Salomon Torres: 65 G, 6-2, 3.88 ERA
David Riske: 65 G, 2.45 ERA (I didn't project, but I did say he was going to stay the same, Oops)
Brian Shouse: 74 G, 2-1, 3.50 ERA
Derrick Turnbow: I'm too ashamed to reprint these, you can look it up.
Eric Gagne: 62 G, 42/50 S, 2.99 ERA
Their Actual Stats:
Guillermo Mota: 30 G, 2-5, 4.22 ERA
Salomon Torres: 39 G, 4-1, 2.56 ERA, 14/16 S
David Riske: 22 G, 0-1, 4.88 ERA
Brian Shouse: 37 G, 3-0, 1.88 ERA
Eric Gagne: 20 G, 1-2, 6.98 ERA
I think I'll ultimately be right about Mota. Torres and Shouse have been phenomenal, and again, just looking at Shouse's numbers have to excite you. The guys has just been unbelievable for the Brewers since his arrival and I think many of us just take it for granted. Props to you Mr. Shouse. On my projection of Gagne I said I was going to completely nail it or get completely rocked because that's what the Gagne signing was. As for Riske, something is not right as pointed out at BrewersNation. I think elbow problems are causing him some serious struggles, though he is very streaky and that could pay off for the Brewers in teh end.
Catcher Predictions:
I didn't make them. I spent an an entire day writing a full biography of Jason Kendall. I didn't want to talk about him any more, but suggested about a .350 OBP, which is pretty much exactly where he's hovering. He was a great pick up, and that's all I'll say.
Infielder Projections:
Prince Fielder: .298/.409/.599, 47 HRs, 136 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .274/.391/.480, 22 HRs, 68 RBIs, 24 SBs, 12 Es
Bill Hall: .265/.333/.440, 16 HRs, 70 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .270/.331/.400, 18-20 HRs
Actual Stats:
Prince Fielder: .272/.360/.487, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .215/.325/.364, 7 HRs, 22 RBIs, 11 SBs, 5 Es
Bill Hall: .208/.271/.379, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .269/.341/.427, 8 HRs, 30 RBIs
Nobody expected Fielder's power numbers to drop this far down, but there's still plenty of time in the season for him to get his numbers back up. Prince has lost a lot of patience at the plate the last few weeks, which is why he was benched last night. Braun will be doing the same some time soon as well i imagine. Weeks has been a disappointment, but his IsoP continues to be phenomenal. Those numbers should improve and if he just gets to a BA of .250, perhaps fans won't be so upset with the guy. On the upside, his error total and stolen bases have been very very good, though go unnoticed. Hall definitely has time to revert to the numbers I expected from him, especially since he'll only be facing lefties for a while. I don't think many people expected him to drop off this bad, but I knew he wasn't going to be bashing the ball all over the field like he did in 2005. I have JJ hardy pegged right on. He's straight average at the plate with average power. This recent streak of his has been phenomenal, but he will ultimately continue to bring these sorts of consistent numbers to the game at shortstop, which is fine by me.
Outfield Projections:
Corey Hart: .287/.370/.490, 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs
Ryan Braun: .288/.370/.620, 40 HRs, 119 RBIs, 27 SBs
Mike Cameron: .249/.347/.514, 20 HRs, Gold Glove Leadership
Actual Stats:
Corey Hart: .293/.335/.516, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs, 12 SB
Ryan Braun: .278/.313/.536, 20 HRs, 58 RBIs, 8 SB
Mike Cameron: .215/.294/.459, 12 HRs, 28 RBIs, 6 SB
You can see why I thought this team was going to be awesome this year based what i thought they would do as far as OBP stands, but these guys have regressed rather than progressed in their young age and the results have been variable. Hart's power is there as is his average. If he took a few more walks, his slugging would improve just as much because it would lower his ABs considerably. The same can be said about Ryan Bruan. I thought Braun would start to realize that pitchers aren't going to pitch him the same and will tend to nit pick. Instead, Braun has been putty in their hands. When he gets a hold of it, it goes a long way, but a 35 IsoP is awful for this team. Cameron has been amazing in center field, but awful at the plate, though his 79 OBP cuts him some slack. I didn't expect too much out of the guy, just walks, homeruns and plenty of defense, but he needs to get that BA up to .240 for him to keep his job.
The Bench Projections:
Craig Counsell: .235/.317/.310
Gabe Gross: .255/.360/.440
Joe Dillon: .240/.330/.412
Tony Gwynn Jr. .270/.340/.390
Gabe Kapler: .260/.329/.450
Actual Stats:
Craig Counsell: .240/.338/.339
Joe Dillon: .230/.356/.328
Gabe Gross: .209/.352/.279
Tony Gwynn Jr.: .200/.293/.229
Gabe Kapler: .307/.350/.496
These numbers are always tough simply because of samples sizes, but the biggest surprise is obviously Gabe Kapler. Though his IsoP has been pretty terrible, Kapler's power, defense and grittiness has been a blessing to this team. When he and Dillon are placed in the lineup, we're not losing too much and often times we gain something in return. Gabe Gross' power was awful here, but he got on base A LOT and has been pretty darn good for TB in clutch situations. On the year he's batting .234/.342/.404. Not bad for adjusting to the AL. Counsell is doing what he does every year: below average BA, average OBP. And that's fine I guess. He came up big for the Crew this year when Rickie and JJ went down, which I appreciate. I just think there's better utility players out there who we could pay just as much with a better up side.
Well that's it. I think it's interesting how close I was on some and how incredibly off I was on others. Afterall, all you can do is go on intuition and my intuition was right on some, awful on others. There's still more than enough time to give my numbers some sort of validity, but I'd rather just worry about the game and enjoy it rather than think about my own ego.
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