Reviewing My Projections.

It's incredible to think that I started this in January and it's now July and I haven't stalled once. Yes, trying to write every day can be treacherous, but I've realized that I have plenty of readers, as quiet as they may be, who like to see the numbers and appreciate what I've been doing during the season. I love this team, and though I complain considerably about them, they get my full fledged support at all costs. I mean come on, I'm from Green Bay and I've had season tickets since 1991. You know you're loyal when you go watch games where Lindy Infante was your coach.

Anyways, I wanted to do something fun. A lot of you weren't around in January and February when I first started this blog. But at that time, to make things go quickly, I went through every position on the field, reviewed their 2007 season and made some projections on the fly. So today, I want to look at all of those that I projected and compare them to their mid-season numbers. We'll see how dead on/off I was. Projections, unfortunately, fall victim to problems such as health or position changes, so I'm going to be off on a number of them regardless. Here it goes... (If you're looking for these posts, they're all labeled Position Analysis and can be found in the side bar under the month of February.)

I began with Starting Pitching during the projections.
Ben Sheets: 30 GS, 16-8, 3.92 ERA, 195.2 IP
Jeff Suppan: 32 GS, 14-12, 4.78 ERA, 202 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 30 GS, 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 195 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 32 GS, 10-12, 4.42 ERA, 175 IP
Chris Bushuano: I said it was a toss up and didn't project, but I did project Bush to pitch in relief for 52 G, 5-7, 4.90 ERA

Their actual stats:
Ben Sheets: 16 GS, 9-2, 2.83 ERA, 111.1 IP
Jeff Suppan: 17 GS, 5-6, 4.30 ERA, 98.1 IP
Dave Bush: 15 GS, 4-8, 5.06 ERA, 90.2 IP
Carlos Villanueva: 21 G, 3-5, 5.40 ERA, 68.1 IP
Yovani Gallardo: 3 GS, 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 20 IP

Unfortunately, at the time of writing this, Capuano wasn't about to get Tommy John and Parra was a long shot in the rotation before Gallardo showed up. I think my ERAs are going to be pretty spot on. Suppan has been reverting to the mean the last few starts and has a considerable amount of unearned runs under his belt. Gallardo is going to be an ace, which is awesome. If that knee is healthy, we might be able to get away with Sheets being gone and possibly picking up a cheaper two or three starter to make up for it. Unfortunately, Villanueva is doing what I expected him to do, which is have a real rough year. But who would have thought Sheets would be pitching this well? He's blowing a lot of people's projections out of the water. If he sustains this and Parra continues his success, the Brewers' would be in great great shape. Imagine a rotation with Sheets, Gallardo and Parra where Parra and Gallardo are making less than a million bucks for at least two more years.

Relief Pitching Projections:
Guillermo Mota: 47 G, 2-4, 5.12 ERA
Salomon Torres: 65 G, 6-2, 3.88 ERA
David Riske: 65 G, 2.45 ERA (I didn't project, but I did say he was going to stay the same, Oops)
Brian Shouse: 74 G, 2-1, 3.50 ERA
Derrick Turnbow: I'm too ashamed to reprint these, you can look it up.
Eric Gagne: 62 G, 42/50 S, 2.99 ERA

Their Actual Stats:
Guillermo Mota: 30 G, 2-5, 4.22 ERA
Salomon Torres: 39 G, 4-1, 2.56 ERA, 14/16 S
David Riske: 22 G, 0-1, 4.88 ERA
Brian Shouse: 37 G, 3-0, 1.88 ERA
Eric Gagne: 20 G, 1-2, 6.98 ERA

I think I'll ultimately be right about Mota. Torres and Shouse have been phenomenal, and again, just looking at Shouse's numbers have to excite you. The guys has just been unbelievable for the Brewers since his arrival and I think many of us just take it for granted. Props to you Mr. Shouse. On my projection of Gagne I said I was going to completely nail it or get completely rocked because that's what the Gagne signing was. As for Riske, something is not right as pointed out at BrewersNation. I think elbow problems are causing him some serious struggles, though he is very streaky and that could pay off for the Brewers in teh end.

Catcher Predictions:
I didn't make them. I spent an an entire day writing a full biography of Jason Kendall. I didn't want to talk about him any more, but suggested about a .350 OBP, which is pretty much exactly where he's hovering. He was a great pick up, and that's all I'll say.

Infielder Projections:
Prince Fielder: .298/.409/.599, 47 HRs, 136 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .274/.391/.480, 22 HRs, 68 RBIs, 24 SBs, 12 Es
Bill Hall: .265/.333/.440, 16 HRs, 70 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .270/.331/.400, 18-20 HRs

Actual Stats:
Prince Fielder: .272/.360/.487, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs
Rickie Weeks: .215/.325/.364, 7 HRs, 22 RBIs, 11 SBs, 5 Es
Bill Hall: .208/.271/.379, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs
JJ Hardy: .269/.341/.427, 8 HRs, 30 RBIs

Nobody expected Fielder's power numbers to drop this far down, but there's still plenty of time in the season for him to get his numbers back up. Prince has lost a lot of patience at the plate the last few weeks, which is why he was benched last night. Braun will be doing the same some time soon as well i imagine. Weeks has been a disappointment, but his IsoP continues to be phenomenal. Those numbers should improve and if he just gets to a BA of .250, perhaps fans won't be so upset with the guy. On the upside, his error total and stolen bases have been very very good, though go unnoticed. Hall definitely has time to revert to the numbers I expected from him, especially since he'll only be facing lefties for a while. I don't think many people expected him to drop off this bad, but I knew he wasn't going to be bashing the ball all over the field like he did in 2005. I have JJ hardy pegged right on. He's straight average at the plate with average power. This recent streak of his has been phenomenal, but he will ultimately continue to bring these sorts of consistent numbers to the game at shortstop, which is fine by me.

Outfield Projections:
Corey Hart: .287/.370/.490, 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs
Ryan Braun: .288/.370/.620, 40 HRs, 119 RBIs, 27 SBs
Mike Cameron: .249/.347/.514, 20 HRs, Gold Glove Leadership

Actual Stats:
Corey Hart: .293/.335/.516, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs, 12 SB
Ryan Braun: .278/.313/.536, 20 HRs, 58 RBIs, 8 SB
Mike Cameron: .215/.294/.459, 12 HRs, 28 RBIs, 6 SB

You can see why I thought this team was going to be awesome this year based what i thought they would do as far as OBP stands, but these guys have regressed rather than progressed in their young age and the results have been variable. Hart's power is there as is his average. If he took a few more walks, his slugging would improve just as much because it would lower his ABs considerably. The same can be said about Ryan Bruan. I thought Braun would start to realize that pitchers aren't going to pitch him the same and will tend to nit pick. Instead, Braun has been putty in their hands. When he gets a hold of it, it goes a long way, but a 35 IsoP is awful for this team. Cameron has been amazing in center field, but awful at the plate, though his 79 OBP cuts him some slack. I didn't expect too much out of the guy, just walks, homeruns and plenty of defense, but he needs to get that BA up to .240 for him to keep his job.

The Bench Projections:
Craig Counsell: .235/.317/.310
Gabe Gross: .255/.360/.440
Joe Dillon: .240/.330/.412
Tony Gwynn Jr. .270/.340/.390
Gabe Kapler: .260/.329/.450

Actual Stats:
Craig Counsell: .240/.338/.339
Joe Dillon: .230/.356/.328
Gabe Gross: .209/.352/.279
Tony Gwynn Jr.: .200/.293/.229
Gabe Kapler: .307/.350/.496

These numbers are always tough simply because of samples sizes, but the biggest surprise is obviously Gabe Kapler. Though his IsoP has been pretty terrible, Kapler's power, defense and grittiness has been a blessing to this team. When he and Dillon are placed in the lineup, we're not losing too much and often times we gain something in return. Gabe Gross' power was awful here, but he got on base A LOT and has been pretty darn good for TB in clutch situations. On the year he's batting .234/.342/.404. Not bad for adjusting to the AL. Counsell is doing what he does every year: below average BA, average OBP. And that's fine I guess. He came up big for the Crew this year when Rickie and JJ went down, which I appreciate. I just think there's better utility players out there who we could pay just as much with a better up side.

Well that's it. I think it's interesting how close I was on some and how incredibly off I was on others. Afterall, all you can do is go on intuition and my intuition was right on some, awful on others. There's still more than enough time to give my numbers some sort of validity, but I'd rather just worry about the game and enjoy it rather than think about my own ego.