Thursday, July 24, 2008

Brewers 2009 Salaries

Can we really afford to sign CC Sabathia to a long term deal? It's all the Milwaukee Sports Radio station can talk about. It's possible if you give away some of your talent. Here's the numbers:

This season:
Ben Sheets: 12.125 million
Eric Gagne: 10.000 million
Craig Counsell: 2.800 million
Guillermo Mota: 3.2 - 4.2 million
Mike Cameron: about 5 million after incentives

33.125 million relieved off the salary cap with 700k in buy outs on Cameron and Counsell if you decide not to pick up their options.

Salary increases next season:
Jason Kendall: 2008 4.25M to 2009 4.6M
Jeff Suppan: 8M to 12.5M
David Riske: 4M to 4.25M
Chris Capuano: 3.75M should not receive a raise
Salmon Torres: 3.2M to 3.75M if he doesn't retire
JJ Hardy: 2.65M to about $4.5M (second year of arbitration J Reyes made $4M this season)
Dave Bush: 2.55M to about $4M (second year of arb)
Brian Shouse: 2M to about 2.5M (May retire)
Rickie Weeks: 1.057M to about 2.3M (first year arb)
Gabe Kapler: 800k to FA (probably will go elsewhere)
Seth McClung: 750k to 1.2M (2nd year arb)
Ryan Braun: .455M + 2.3M to .745M (signing bonus)
Prince Fielder: .67M to 7M (Shot in the dark)
Russell Branyan: 300k to FA
Corey Hart: 444k to 2.4M (First year arb)
Carlos Villanueva: 413k to 500k (last year before arb)
Yovani Gallardo: 404k to about 450k
Mike Rivera: 395k to 450k (last year before arb)
Manny Parra: 392k to 500k (still one more year after before arb)
Turns out to be about 15 million in raises

So the salary of the team should drop about $15 million from it's opening day salary which started at $80M based on raises and free agency. And remember, the Brewers can buy out Suppan's contract after next season for $2M saving $10.5M after next season.

One thing to note is the Brewers potential revenue gained during a post season run. If two series were played here, you're looking at serious cash flow and Attanasio's 'losses' won't be losses any more. Here's the thing though, the Brewers farm AA-Huntsville team has more than it's fair share of major league ready stars. While I love this team's roster a trade of JJ Hardy or Prince Fielder is not out of the question. Fielder leaving would give the Brewers an additional 7M to work with and his spot could be filled by Brad Nelson or Mat Gamel as a stop gap. This would leave your rotation with Sabathia/Parra/Gallardo/XX. Let's be honest, we can find someone to fill those gaps.

Now you give CC a 4-6 year deal, but you try and leave open the opportunity to trade him in the last two years of his contract for savings sake. Parra and Gallardo will both make very little money for the next two seasons because of their service time. Jeremy Jeffress should be ready in 3-4 years which could potentially fill a CC hole, not to mention the return on Sabathia in the form of prospects. Gallardo should pan out to be an ace in the hole as well.

We worry about long term effects of investing some $100 million Sabathia as far as the salary goes, but Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley, Cole Gillespie, Tony Gwynn Jr, Angel Salome, Mat Gamel, Jonathon Lucroy, Tim Dillard, Mitch Stetter, Mark DiFelice and Brad Nelson come cheap for four years if at any time the Brewers decide to send off a Corey Hart, Jason Kendall, or JJ Hardy. It's the problem of a small market team. But for the Brewers it's not as difficult as others because of how Jack has put together the system. Hart, Fielder, Hardy and Weeks will all bring in solid prospects and will replenish the system as we use it in the bigs.

The conclusion: It is possible to sign CC Sabathia for the big bucks, and it should be done if you feel he can continue to perform at an extremely high level. Johan Santana proves that it's possible and I think that CC's big frame actually will help him in the long run because most of his power derives from his legs and his mechanics are quite clean. It doesn't hurt that he relies on a cutter and changeup. What do you think Brewers' fans?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think this is actually a possibility...I want to see CC back before Ben just soley based on what Sabathia can offer...but theres also a chance if we do sign Sheets which would save us money over Sabathia...we could keep a few players around for a while...or sign a few more big names...but who am I kidding...I wanna see CC here for a long time!

steve said...

I don't know how you find the head space to think about salary considerations for 2009 when the Brewers are in the midst of the their franchise long road winning streak and inching closer to 1st place.....but someone has to do it and knowing Brewer fans like you guys are so far ahead of the moment leaves a good feeling about the future.

I'm obsessed by Braun's at bats in game 3 and 4 of teh St. Louis series. Not so much his homerun because we've all seen this....It's more his sudden discipline to lay off that pitch sailing outside....same thing for Hall...

akittell said...

Steve,

I know! I can't believe it. All of a sudden Braun learns to avoid that off the outside corner breaking ball and his average jumps to .300. Then Bill Hall adjusts his stance and starts seeing the ball better as well. Check out the recap today and I'll toss out the numbers.