Thursday, July 10, 2008

Something's Missing

I wasn't going to do a recap today because I was so frustrated with last night's game, and I really didn't want to whine for an hour today while sitting at work. But 'the believer' commented this morning on the game and I've kind of changed my mind. I still won't be doing a recap, and least not the usual anyways, but I want to delve into the big problems the Brewers have, and why there's not guarantees in the second half.

CC Sabathia is a stud and there's few rotations that can rival the punch of Sheets, Sabathia and Parra. But Brewers fans need to remember the average age of our starters on this team is about 26. Furthermore, with the exception of Kendall and Cameron, not one of these guys has more than three full seasons of ABs under their belt.

Last night, they showed their age. Glendon Rusch is a career 5.04 ERA pitcher with a WHIP of 1.48. He has an 88 MPH fastball, throws junkballs and makes a lot of mistakes. He pitches to a lot of contact and really relies on his defense to get him through. He's basically a band aid pitcher. But the Brewers made him look like an ace last night. And it's not the first time they've done that. Remember Jorge Campillo? Josh Fogg? Nelson Figueroa? Greg Reynolds? Not one of these guys is very good. In fact, they're all number four, number five or spot starters, but they each pitched at least six innings and gave up two runs or fewer. The Brewers made them look like aces.

We've all heard the phrase, 'These are the games you're supposed to win.' These are the games when the opposing team throws their innings eater on to the mound and are basically conceding they're going to give up three to five runs, guaranteed. They just hope that they can score more and have the bullpen do the rest. The problem for the Brewers is if you throw that band aid out there, especially if they haven't seen that band aid before, the offense gets super amped up and goes for the long ball. Guys who don't throw very hard like Rusch and Campillo don't give up a lot of homeruns. The teams that have success against them are teams that are willing to take walks, go opposite field and stay patient.

The Brewers are NOT patient. There's nothing that's more unsexy than a walk to this team. We are 90 games through the season and the Brewers have 289 walks. Sounds reasonable I guess, but for a good comparison, the Cubs have 365. That's 76 more baserunners this season that were freebies. These guys just had to walk up there, look at 4-7 pitches and start trotting. And it's not surprising to find out that the Cubs also have 108 more hits than the Brewers. The reason? They see more pitches.

So great, the Brewers have one of the best rotations in baseball, perhaps THE best. But if they can only offer eight runs one night and two the next, they will never be able to make an overly tremendous run. It will simply be what it is now, a hot month or two. The pitchers have picked up the offense far too often this year. We rarely see this team win games if the other team gets five or more. CC Sabathia can't be perfect. He adds confidence, swagger and great pitching, but great pitching needs some help.

This team needs another asset. Someone who understands this obvious theory and is going to convince every one else of the same thing. Kenny Lofton is known as one of the best club house guys in the business and is a career .299/.372 hitter. Not to mention he's 41 years old and has had a very solid career. If he came in here and produced at about 80% of what he did last year for the Indians in the second half, his presence alone could improve this team. It's another lefty bat, but one that is willing to teach a bunch of young guy, who clearly aren't learning much from below average hitters like Jim Skaalen or Butch Wynegar. Kenny Lofton will have the immediate respect of this team and may be able to push them over the top.

Until then, the Brewers are riding the seesaw. They'll be up and down all year until they find some sort of consistency at the plate. Melvin wants to get over the top, and a move is definitely necessary. If you're going to go for it, go for it.

I'll leave you with one question. If Alcides Escobar can play second base, would you try and trade Rickie Weeks? Weeks is a solid trade chip this off season or right now if the Brewers can find a high OBP guy somewhere. Just a thought I haven't given too much consideration.

1 comment:

steve said...

Great post Aaron. You put into words what we're thinking. Your suggestion of trading Weeks is a good one, but one that comes a season too late I think.

Don't get me wrong, I like Weeks. And I am totally amazed by his knack for scoring runs. I don't what it is, but over the past 2 seasons, his percentage of scoring when reaching base must be at or near the top of league leaders. Maybe, the threat of him stealing causes some havoc with opposing pitchers.

So, who would be intersted in Weeks? Well, he still strikes me as an MLB starter...#9 hitter with an average or above average defensive skill.

Rather than seeking a speedy lead off hitter, I think a super high OB% guy without speed is a better fit for the Brewers personality.

Your suggestion a few weeks back about Adam Dunn as a lead off hitter is sort of what I'm thinking. However, maybe Dunn induces more walks in the #4 spot from a pitchers nibbling to avoid giving up a homerun.

We don't run that much. Not much at all and when we do or make a threat, we have trouble...make mistakes...get picked off.

I would love to see Kenny Loften for the short term and for the long haul, somebody like Youkilis to lead off.