Brewers Astros Series Preview

The Series:
Houston Astros (46-55) @ Milwaukee Brewers (59-43)

Who's on Tap?:
July 25th: Wandy Rodriguez (5-3, 3.31 ERA) vs. Manny Parra (9-2, 3.68 ERA)
July 26th: Brandon Backe (6-10, 4.79 ERA) vs. Dave Bush (5-8, 4.39 ERA)
July 27th: Randy Wolf (6-10, 4.74 ERA) vs. Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.65 ERA)

Who Should You Watch?:
The Astros come in last place in the NL Central and a game and half back behind Pittsburgh on top of that, which makes you wonder why they even considered trading for Randy Wolf. Nevertheless, the Astros aren't a team that can simply be over-looked, considering they are 4-5 against Milwaukee this season, including a series sweep in May. Those three victories had a lot to do with one of the best hitters in the NL this year, Lance Berkman. Lance is hitting .400/.447/.829 against the Crew this season with three homeruns and 12 RBIs in just nine games. Thankfully the Brewers aren't throwing out Ben Sheets this weekend, who Lance just destroys, but Bush, Parra and Soup are going to have to contain the big fella to continue their streak. On the mound you should keep your eye on Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy has had a very interesting career where he shows flashes of brilliance and then just turns falls apart. That is to be expected from an inexperienced pitcher. But he has yet to fall apart this year, mostly because he has limited his walks, and is coming off a solid start against the Cubs going 6.2 and only giving up one run.

The Brewers are undoubtedly the hottest team in baseball right now, riding an undefeated road trip and the hot bats of Ryan Braun and JJ Hardy. And while you should watch those guys too, play close attention the wiry fellow, Corey Hart. Corey is a career .342/.395/.664 hitter against the Astros in 165 PAs, which is a pretty reasonable sample size. He's 6/15 against Brandon Backe with three doubles and a homerun and 8/17 against Wandy. Corey had a rough rough series against the Cardinals, but he should hop back on the wagon after some home cooking gets in his stomach. On the mound, keep your eyes on Dave Bush and the bullpen. No one is quite sure how Ned Yost is going to run the platoon situation as Seth McClung turns in his long reliever for the next three days or so. As for the bullpen, it's fresh and ready to go as Carlos Villanueva, Dave Riske and Brian Shouse are all fresher than ever. Villa has only tossed 12 pitches since the ASB, and is due for a couple of innings with the back end of the rotation taking its turn. Shouse has only seen an inning and two thirds of work since the ASB and will need some work to get sharp again, though seven of his eight pitches were strikes on Tuesday was enough to get through three Cardinal batters.

Keys to Victory:
If you've looked at the box scores for the Astros lately, you'll notice that they have absolutely no problems scoring runs in bunches. But sometimes they just can't put it together all at once. And recently they're pitching hasn't been anything to call home about either, as they've lost a number games 8-7 or 7-6. After some thought, it's going to come down to patience. It's hard to believe that when you have a guy with a .437 OBP like Lance Berkman, it doesn't somewhat rub off on the rest of the team. Houston's team OBP is .321, which is absolutely atrocious especially considering they're only slugging .404 in the right handed hitter friendly Minute Maid Park. Patience should garner them some extra base runners with Soup and Parra on the mound. That should get them to the bullpen sooner rather than later and give them the best chance to take this series.

The Astros don't strike out a lot, and are second to last in SOs in the NL, just one above the St. Louis Cardinals. This means the Brewers defense has to show up. No more indecision. If you're going to go for the ball, go for it damnit. If there is any series where the Brewers difficulties in the infield could haunt them, it's this one. Their confidence is so high right now, they may overlook the little things that got them to this point. The biggest culprits are Rickie, Prince and the pitcher. Yes Hall has struggled too, but the right side of the infield is covered in the soot of mental errors. Provided these guys play well and we get the usual play from the outfield, the Brewers should be just fine.

Predictions and Notes:
- It's never easy to say the Brewers will sweep because baseball is such a funny game, but it's hard to argue against Manny Parra tonight with the Astros rolling out a lefty. The Brewers are 22-9 against lefties this year, while the Astros are 14-15. Brandon Backe is just downright awful, even if the Brewers are trying out the platoon experiment this week. And then Suppan rolls out at Miller Park looking just as good as he did early in the season. If the Brewers do lose a game, though, it will be Sunday, as the Brewers have had a hard time with Wolf and the Astros have had significant success against Suppan.

- If you haven't noticed yet, the arrival of Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall has put the Brewers well over the top in the last week. Weeks is batting .348/.467/.609 since the break with five walks, eight RBIs and only three Ks. Hall is batting a measly .190/.292/.476 in his five game, has two huge homeruns and has walked three times. Not bad for two guys who were getting hunted by Brewers fans all over the internet. I'm proud to say that I've always stuck behind Weeks and his talents. He's a top notch second baseman if he puts his talents to use, and is a big reason for this run by the Crew. Hall, on the other hand, isn't out of my doghouse just yet. The strike out rate is still way up and the defense is a still a worry, but he's showing flashes of the guy we'll need down the stretch if Yost opts out of the third base platoon for the rest of the season.