Friday, July 18, 2008

Brewers Giants Series Preview

The Series:
Milwaukee Brewers (52-43) @ San Francisco Giants (40-55)


Who's on Tap?:
July 18th: CC Sabathia (8-8, 3.67 ERA) vs. Matt Cain (5-7, 4.06 ERA)
July 19th: Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.85 ERA) vs. Jonathon Sanchez (8-5, 3.97 ERA)
July 20th: Manny Parra (8-2, 3.78 ERA) vs. Tim Lincecum (11-2, 2.57 ERA)

Who Should You Watch?:
If you didn't know already, the Giants aren't that good of team. As a result, guys like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum get more than overlooked as absolute studs. Throw in Jonathon Sanchez, who is quietly becoming a pretty good number three, and the Giants seem to have a nice core in their starting rotation. At the plate, the Brewers need to keep an eye on Fred Lewis, the Giants speedy left handed lead off hitter. If there's something that the Brewers have trouble with, it's their ability to defend the bunt. With Sheets and Sabathia toeing the rubber in the first two games, we may see a healthy bit of bunts this series. The same can be said for Randy Winn.

The Brewers need to counter with some offense, and I suspect the break is going to help out the 'struggling' Prince Fielder. There are a lot of teams out there that would love to have a guy hitting .270/.350 with 18 home runs, but that just isn't enough for Prince. In four games at AT&T Park, Prince is .500/.529/.571. On top of that, he's hitting .284/.395/.418 against the Giants in 19 games. On the mound, keep your eye on Manny Parra. As the Brewers move into the second half, they're going to need Parra, Sabathia and Sheets to all be lights out and make up for any offensive blunders that may come their way down the stretch. Parra does carry a 3.38 ERA against Giants in his 10.2 innings of work. We'll see if he continue that success.

Keys to Victory:
There are far too many holes in the Giants lineup for any one to expect them to score a lot of runs against quality pitching, as shown by the fact that the Giants rank 14th in the NL in runs scored. With the Brewers walking in with their three top pitchers, the Giants are going to have to rely on their starting pitching to keep them in the game and knock out the Brewers starters early to go after the vulnerable bullpen. But if they get down early, they'll find themselves in a real tight spot.

The Brewers are going to have to do exactly what I just said SF has to try and avoid. They'll need to jump on the Giants' starters early. I'm not talking about scoring runs in bunches, but manufacturing a few runs to put the pressure on their offense. This puts the manager in a position to consider pulling their starter, and San Fran's bullpen can't be relied on for too many innings. Rickie Weeks will be important in this regard. He needs to get on and advance without wasting outs.

Predictions and Notes:
- It's a bit nerve wracking to see Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum face the Brewers to start the second half, considering they combined for 15 innings of two run baseball against the Cubs last week. Nevertheless, I have a good feeling the second half slump Brewers' fans are so accustomed to won't be there this season; not with Sabathia and Sheets in the rotation. Here's some wishful thinking, the Brewers win Friday and Sunday, but struggle against the hard throwing, rejuvenated Jonathon Sanchez.

- With all the BS talk about the HR Derby screwing up your swing, maybe it'll turn Ryan Braun into a patient hitter. Not likely, but it's always fun to see how All-Stars respond to playing in the middle of the week when others do not. Guys like Braun and Hamilton always deserve a little more attention as far as looking to see if anything changes in their game.

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