Position Analysis: Shortstop and the Outfield

Well, it's been quite a while since I've followed up my position analysis. The research and writing has been a bit more grueling than I expected. I have a problem with having to finish something no matter how long it takes, so instead of starting the longer posts, I put them off because I don't have the time. Regardless, my absence has been inexcusable, and with pitchers and catchers reporting in just a couple of days, I have some catching up to do.

Before I get into it, the usual housekeeping I do every post reveals that the Brewers re-signed Chris Spurling, but thankfully to a minor league contract. The depth in the minors for pitching is a bit shaky and Spurling did quite a good job last year eating up innings when we needed him to. There's no room for him in the bigs and with the free agent market being as it is, I'm sure he's happy to go somewhere familiar to him, with the opportunity to get some innings when injuries come around.

Shortstop: JJ Hardy

JJ is coming off his first full season in majors as one of the big surprises for the Brewers, mostly because of his power numbers. I say this is JJ's first full season because it's the first time he's made it unscathed as far as injuries go. JJ finished the year going .277/.321/.429 with 26 HRs, 80 RBIs and about 60 baserunning mistakes, but I'll discuss that later.

As mentioned before, JJ's power numbers were phenomenal, for a shortstop anyways, but the problem lies in that huge .321 OBP. It's hideous, and if you take away the first two months of the season, you're looking at a .310 OBP, which Ned should realize is not what a 2-hitter hits. I'm one of the few people out there who think JJ's got a long way to go with his bat, especially his pitch selection. If he can recreate his OBP of the first two months, .350, then we're looking at probably the 1st or 2nd best infield in the NL.

Overall, I'm not worried about JJ's bat. It'll come around and he tends to hit very well in clutch situations, but I cannot stand watching JJ on the bases. He never looks comfortable and when he looks confident, he's misjudged something and gets busted up. BP did a study on baserunners and have marked him as one of the 10 worst baserunners in th league. I know that Yost "Threw out the rule book," in regards to baserunning last year, but JJ couldn't get from first to third if his life depended on it or if someone hit a triple. It's not a big part of his game, but it's another part that needs to improve.

Predictions: .270/.331/.400 JJ will figure out the OBP problem on a year by year basis, but you can't expect him to hit 26 HRs again this year. I'm looking at 18-20 and his RBIs will depend solely on where he gets placed in the lineup. Again, I don't like him in the two hole. I actually like Kendall (I get a lot of flack for that) because of his OBP and uncanny ability to hit every single ball on the ground like Jeff Cirillo. Hopefully Escobar gets his numbers up and JJ spends the next two years increasing his trade value because Weeks, Hart, Braun and Fielder are staying for the next 6 years. I like JJ as a person, but his ceiling is only a little above average.

Right Field: Corey Hart

"I wear my sunglasses at night..." Ah, that never gets old. I'm a Corey Hart fan, more so than I thought I would be when he first came into the league. It's become rather apparent that Corey is one of the most under-rated right-fielders in the league right now, considering he's only 25. Corey batted .295/.353/.539 last year, hitting for 24 HRs, 81 RBIs and swiping 20 bases becoming the first Brewer in two decades to go 20/20 in a season. Corey showed excellent patience at the plate, as shown by the 58 point differential between his Avg and OBP, but struck out a bit too much (99), but the key to his season was consistency.

The power was almost non-existent at the beginning of the year, but the team could live without his slugging. After the first two months of play, Corey went .298/.358/.440 with only on HR and only 10 runs. But this type of consistency got Corey more playing time and an every day starting job. He responded in June going .336/.421/.618. Wowsa! That's excellent. If you tack on the 10 SBs and 9 HRs, you got yourself a top-notch right fielder.

But a friend of mine, who lives and dies by numbers and everything Baseball Prospectus says, told me that you always revert to the mean, and this time he was right. Corey followed a ridiculous June by putting the finishing touches on a 22 game hit streak. Unfortunately the rest of the month wasn't too kind and he finished July with a .200/.261/.467 with no stolen bases. He fought this slump by playing good defense and returned to reasonable form in the Brewers treacherous August going .313/.337/.542. The OBP differential is pretty awful, but he made up for it in September going .295/.381/.641. I'd much rather the lower average and higher OBP and slugging because that's what leads to runs.

The sky is the limit with this kid. He's already set a goal of 30/30 this year and if he has more consistency with this power numbers, he's got a damn good shot. All I ask from him this year is improvement in the field; Not so much on his range or his footwork, but his throws. Maybe it's because he's a ridiculously tall guy and his mechanics look funky, but he seems to have a terribly slow release and doesn't put everything behind his throws to the plate. Since he's only been in the outfield for a couple of years, I don't doubt he'll find a way to improve.

Predictions: 287/.370/.490 with 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs and a bobblehead wearing sunglasses for good measure.

Left Field: Ryan Braun

It's kind of hard to criticize the 2007 Rookie of the Year, but when you have one of the worst defensive years in history, you leave yourself open for pot shots. Ryan only played in 113 games last year, but he still hit 34 HRs with 97 RBIs, amassing a .324 Avg and a .370 OBP, slugging a ridiculous .634. But he managed to commit 26 fielding errors in only 248 chances, not to mention the other terrible throws Fielder saved with his reflexes. It was this .895 Fielding Percentage that sent Braun away from the hot corner and into the defensive liability hole in left field.

So what can we expect from Ryan Braun this year? I think too much, so I'm going to go through his month by month numbers and see if we can get a better idea of what really to expect. Ryan was called up from AAA on May 25th (I'm angry I missed it. I was in Ireland though.) to play the Padres and he responded by going 1 for 4, hitting his first major league double and his first two major league RBIs. Unfortunately he finished the month going .222/.214/.370, which is ridiculous since it's pretty hard to have a negative differential, but if you don't walk, bad things happen.

June was the time for the turnaround. He opened the month going 3 for 3, scoring three runs while hitting a double and a homerun. But it got better, .382/.435/.716 better and Ryan Braun officially arrived in the majors. July brought more of the same as he went .345/.397/.673, but when the team cools off, so does everybody on in it. Ryan followed two of the best rookie months in baseball history by going .287/.330/.574. God forbid you hit average sir. I guess he realized that so he hit .308/.354/.644 in September.

So the numbers say this... He's good. In fact, he's really good, and nothing would indicate he's going to get worse, but you sophomore slumps are pretty common. If there's a drop in anything for Ryan, it's going to be found in his average. With Corey in the five spot, you might see him get pitched around a little bit more and he won't see the fatty fastballs he got for a good portion of last year. Pitchers will also know more about his tendencies and should adjust some. Regardless, the slugging will stay. He doesn't look all that big, but his mechanics must fit his body type perfect and it sends the ball a long way.

Predictions: .288/.370/.620 with 40 HRs, 119 RBIs and 27 SB (Did I forget to mention he's fast?)

Ryan needs to improve his SO/BB ratio, but as a power hitter you can live with it. If he works on his first step in the outfield, he'll be just fine. Let's hope people aren't dumb enough to call any drop in his numbers a result of the position switch.

Center Field: Mike Cameron

I've done a ridiculous amount of research on this guy since we first got him, and I'm a bit sick of discussing him, to be brutally honest. His numbers last year were pretty embarrassing, going .242/.328/.431 with 21 HRs and 78 RBIs, but 21 HRs in Petco County, I mean Petco Park, is pretty respectable. Career, Cameron has gone .251/.341/.445, which is exactly average, but what he brings is some Gold Glove leadership. If you refer to this post, you'll find out some of the intangibles behind Doug Melvin's signing. I just don't have the energy to go through all of that stuff again.

Predictions: .249/.347/.514 The slugging should go up at Miller Park and his OBP should be healthy even though he won't be protected in the 6 or 7 hole. Expect 20 HRs after the 25 game suspension and some serious range in center.

Strengths: Speed, range and power. You're looking at an outfield with a potential of over 100 HRs and SBs. You can't say that about 90% of the teams in the entire league.

Weaknesses: Experience and SOs. Each of these guys are going to strikeout more than 100 times this year and that's gonna take a toll. This will be Braun's first year in the outfield, an Corey's 4th (I think). Let's hope they can use their skill to keep things going.

Bench Players Tomorrow...