I guess I haven't stuck my schedule all that well, but I'll make up for it today by taking on two positions in one post. Before that, a little housekeeping. A few days ago Dave Bush agreed to a one year contract worth 2.55 million, below the median that existed between the the Brewers and Bush's agent. But then Doug Melvin said, "I think he'd have to pitch awful [in Spring Training] to not be a part of the rotation. Take a look at Dave Bush vs. Joe Blanton's numbers over their career. Blanton has the wins and the ERA was better last year, but overall they're not far off." Are you kidding me?! That is the biggest load of BS that has ever come out Doug Melvin's mouth. Since when do wins represent how well a pitcher did. Joe Blanton pitched 230 innings last year with a 3.95 ERA and a 14-10 record with a WHIP of 1.22. How does that compare to Bush's 5.12 ERA, a 12-10 record in 186 IP with a WHIP of 1.40. That is absolutely absurd. If he gets the spot because Melvin and Yost have a soft spot for him, these team will never be a consistent ball-club.
On top of that, Melvin and Attanasio agreed to exercise Yost's option for 2009, and rightfully so, I guess. I'm not a Yost fan, but I get that this is a business, and we don't need that stupid job security bit to distract this young team. On to today's position analysis:
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Every analyst across the board expects big things from the Brewers' second baseman, and I'm no exception. However, I was on that bus last year after watching Weeks' improvement throughout his rookie season, and I don't think I ever got off. Rickie Darnell Weeks was drafted out of Southern University after being named Baseball America's Player of the Year and exploded through the Brewers' system arriving in Milwaukee in 2005. Unfortunately, Rickie made it to Milwaukee with his bat and not his glove, and it showed as he committed 43 errors in 187 innings in 2005 and 2006.
2007 was a turnaround year though, for his bat and more importantly his glove. While most people remember Weeks' trials and tribulations last year, I remember two very important things: A high OBP and extreme improvement on the defensive end of the game. Rickie started out the 2007 pretty average batting .237/.348/.329 over the first two months. The OBP and BA are right on, but the slugging is absolutely atrocious, especially for the speed Rickie has. His excuse, "I'm just not playing well,"; the real reason: a banged up wrist that hurt his bat speed and his confidence and put him on the pine for a couple of weeks. Upon his return, he was worse, batting .125/.279/.143 in July, and heads rolled. Weeks was sent to AAA-Nashville for a wake up call and returned 10 days later, hitting what I expected him to do. He finished August batting .327/.500/.519. If you get on base 50% of the time, you're more than successful, you're a stud. The average dipped to .245 in September, but an OBP and Slg of .409 and .571 places him in the upper echelon of 2nd Baseman in the league.
Rickie Weeks is this team's 2nd Baseman and leadoff hitter, and that's because he can do everything for this team. He can get on base in every way possible whether it be infield hits or shooting the ball to either gap. And when he's on base, he can steal a base and move from 1st to 3rd better than anybody else on the team. Additionally, he has built chemistry on the field with shortstop JJ Hardy. I expect some fantastic and athletic plays from this duo as the they progress even more as ballplayers, but most importantly, I expect fewer errors, which will yield more wins for this team.
Predictions: The hype about Rickie is real. If he's healthy, he should have his power back, and his OBP can only go up as he learns NL pitching. If he limits his strikeouts to under 120, look for him to have a ridiculous year.
.275/.391/.480 with 22 HRs, 68RBIs, 24 SBs and let's hope 12 errors and a healthy year.
Third Base: Bill Hall
I've discussed Bill Hall quite a bit this off-season, specifically discussing why he had such a poor year in 2007, going .254/.315/.425. If you want to see what I had to say about the Bill Hall move check out this link, but to avoid excuses and other unnecessary analysis, let's look more into his numbers.
Hall started off pretty sluggish last year batting .257/.314/.404 over the first two months of the season, hitting only 6 HRs during that time. And it really only got better than that for one or two months out of the season. In June he was able to bounce back and hit .307/.388/.523, a good sign of power and OBP, but it didn't stick and those numbers plummeted over the last two months, finishing the year with months of .185/.230/.370 and .255/.302/.400. It's surprising to think he never saw the pine for very long.
There's a lot less pressure on Hall this year, and expecting average on-base and slugging numbers is reasonable. If he keeps the OBP above .340 and the slugging at .450, we may find ourselves in a pretty good fight this year with Billy in the 7 hole.
Predictions: .265/.333/.440 with 16HRs and 70 RBIs. Not Hank Blalock, but reasonable enough.
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3 comments:
On your intro to second base and third base, you commented on Dave Bush..
If Bush is put in the starting rotation and from what Melvin and Yost are saying, he will be...here's some pain killer remedies for you and all the Bush Bashers..
Bush as you probably already know, was a catcher in college...and after the conversion to the mound, he became a closer...a very good one. So, he is relatively new to the position...
He has remarkable control...the last two years ranking in the top 5in the National League in walks per nine innings..Last year behind Smoltz, Maddux, Hammels, and somebody else I forget.
OK...big deal, right? He has control. He can win a stuffed animal at the carnival...He also strikes people out...giving him an excellent Strikeouts to Walks ratio...
OK...maybe, this is an overated stat too..However, the fact that Bush is new to the mound and capable of striking people out seems to indicate that his days as a productive pitcher will soon arrive.
I wish Bush would take a few more risks when ahead in the count and maybe walk a few more batters...The sacrifice would result in batters chasing more pitches out of the strike zone...and hitting balls to our defense which will hopefully be improved..
The Big Inning Bush suffers from is a consequence of inexperience...
Don't forget that most pitchers take 3-4-5 years before they become consistent winners...and I'm not talking about posting wins...I'm talking about getting batters out which we all know does not translate into a winning record.
Over the last two years, Bush has statistically been better than Suppan....Bush has a durable arm. He has a young arm...
You are right to question decisions based on two consecutive years winning 12 games...However, Bush has earned a spot in the rotation more on account of his durability and flashes of being a solid #3 or #4 starter....or in the Brewers 2008 situation..an excellent #5 guy.
You're the third person to tell me that Bush has better numbers than Suppan. That's just a straight lie. Look at them. While Suppan has had a higher WHIP, he throws a better groundball ratio, making it acceptable. He had more wins last year, but not two years ago, and he's never been a SO pitcher. So you're comparing apples to oranges in that sense.
If you find something that's actually convincing, let me know because this feels like insanity to me.
I guess I was wrong. I thought Bush had more wins, but I was wrong. They tied in wins, but Soup had a better ERA and 11 more innings pitched, so durability isn't a question either. All Bush has a is a SO/BB ratio, but he throws for fly ball contact because there isn't much sink on the ball. That's his biggest problem. I'm in total agreement about the pithing out of the zone more. But I'm not quite sure he has the stuff to fool batters.
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