Position Analysis: Starting Pitching

Today marks Day 2 of my position analysis leading up to Spring Training. The more I think about it, the more I like doing this column, especially the position analysis. I'm already amped up about baseball season and with football officially ending, one can't be looking forward to anything else this time of year except for March Madness (GO RED!). And if you're an NBA fan, God bless you for having no life (I'm a Bucks fan, I have a right to be bitter). Well on with the show!

The Ace: Ben Sheets

Ben Sheets is coming off yet another disappointing year even though he tied for the team lead with 12 wins. The numbers look great, 12-4 with a 3.82 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP with a trip to the All-Star game and a Pitcher of the Month Award in June. That sounds great! Why should anyone complain? How about only 141 innings pitched? The Brewers looked like beasts on Opening Day when Sheets pitched a complete-game 2-hit 7-1 victory over the LA Dodgers. And that continued for that entire month, but something wasn't right and it never really had time to get better.

The first thing people noticed about Sheets year was that his SO total was down significantly from years past. The curveball didn't have the bite it used to and he couldn't locate it. The upside was the emergence of his changeup which soon crept it's way into his game more and more. This resulted in a still very respectable 106/37 strikeout to walk ratio. But it happened, just like it has for the last three expensive contract years: the injury bug.

It's pretty annoying that it's happened to Sheets every year. Injuries always plague a team, and I can't blame Sheets that much. When you throw overhand curves like he and Wood do, you're risking a lot. At the end of April, Sheets left after 3 innings in Chicago because of a groin strain. He hung on for a while after that, but wasn't as dominating as he always has been before July 14th when he "sprained" his right middle finger and could no longer put proper pressure on the ball. That sprain turned out to be a partial tear of the tissue surrounding the tendon. He was lost until the end of August, at which time the Brewers fell apart, even with the valiant attempts of rookies Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra pitching well. Upon his return he went 2-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts, the last one in Houston only lasted an inning.

Consistency, where is the consistency? Prior to his contract season, Ben Sheets pitched 216, 220 and 237 innings for the Brewers and was essentially injury free. Funny thing is, he was always below .500 because of the team he was on. In 2004 he pitched 5 complete games! People say conditioning has been his problem, but there's no way. It's his style of pitching that is catching up to him and maybe he needs to find something to handle the wear and tear on his body. Something obviously changed this year because at the beginning of games this year, Sheets was immediately throwing 96-97, whereas in years past, that usually took and inning or two. I think progress is being made, but if he has to skip a start somewhere in there because something minor is bothering him, please give it to him!

Sheets is the ace of this staff and he's in a contract year. I'll be sad to see him have an amazing year and then bail on a team that's given him plenty of money for what really has been poor service on his part. Ben might be a loyal guy though, and he shouldn't be asking for too much more money. If he pitches 200 innings again, give him a 2 or three year contract. Cameron's cash will be available and Gwynn should be primed as a starter.

Prediciton: 30 starts, 16-8 record with a 3.92 ERA over 195.2 IP
(Don't ask me where I get these. I'm taking a shot in the dark based on the his past and the present state of the team)

The Number Two: Jeff Suppan

Suppan had a pretty consistent 2007 in my opinion. He's never been an Ace and never will be, but he will always get your 190-200 innings pitched and he we most likely get you 12 wins. Suppan finished '07 with a 12-12 record, amassing a 4.62 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 206 IP, making 30+ starts for the 9th consecutive season. Let's compare that to Sup's career numbers of 4.61 ERA and 1.43. Yeah, that's solid and consistent, a stablizing force that kept these guys going down the stretch.

Jeff had two bad months during his first contractual year with the Brewers. In June he carried a 7.68 ERA, going 2-2 while being the losing pitcher in the Justin Verlander No-Hitter. He followed up in July with a 5.29 ERA, but finshed August with a 3.90 and September with a 3.86, winning 4 of his last 6 starts... when they counted.

I expect an almost identical season from Suppan, where he struggles a couple of times during the middle of the season, but his location will come back and the groundballs will be gobbled up. With better defense at third, a contact pitcher like Jeff is going to flourish a little more. An error by this in field gives the opposing team a significant advantage when facing a guy like Suppan, but he gets the job done and in my opinion was a little overpaid, but worth the money.

Predictions: 32 starts, 14-12 record with a 4.78 ERA and 202 IP

The Kid: Yovani Gallardo

If you're a die hard Brewers fan like I am, you were waiting for this. You knew this kid was coming up and you knew he was going to be good, but you had to wait. You had to sit through Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas' struggles because of an innings limit and some AAA-seasoning. But then; "Sheets is hurt again," and the kid came alive.

In his first Major League start, Yo went 6.1 inning allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4, wile going 1-2 at the plate and doubling in a run in the second inning, AND taking a walk. And the rest of the year went that way too. The only blemish on Yo's resume last year was a rough couple of weeks in August when the team really fell apart. In one game he pitched 2.2 innings and gave up 11 runs. More times than naught, a guy gets removed from the game before allowing 11 runs, but the bullpen was taxed. He followed this outing with a 7 run 5.2 inning game, go scoreless outing in AZ and then a 5 run 3 inning affair, resulting in a 7.55 ERA for the season and ultimately raising his ERA by two full runs.

Gallardo went off in September, pitching 21 scoreless innings to start the month and finishing with a 1.36 ERA in 5 starts that month. He finished with a 9-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 17 starts and 110 IP, making his total for the year around 180 IP, leaving the door open for whatever he wants to do this year. Stud: that's exactly what he's going to be.

Predictions: 30 Starts, 17-7 record with a 3.20 ERA and 195 IP

He's the future ace of this staff if Ben says goodbye. I say if he doesn't sign another deal at the trade deadline, trade him for some serious pitching prospects in the Sox or Yankee system. Yo will get his respect in two years when they sign him and Ryan Braun.

Young Vet: Carlos Villanueva

I need to make one minor disclaimer. Carlos Villanueva is my favorite Brewer. Ever since he came up two years ago and mowed down the Reds without flinching, I've been obsessed with this guy getting the props he deserves. His composure just baffles me and I appreciate how humble he is and how he appears to be a veteran player at the age of 24. With that being said, Villanueva has earned himself a spot in this rotation because of what he was able to do for this team last year.

In 2006, Carlos appeared in 10 games, starting 6 of them to end the year. He finished with a 2-2 record with a respectable 3.69 ERA. At that time, he officially had established himself as the fifth starter. And then the Brewers signed Jeff Suppan and Villa went from a guaranteed starting spot to a roster competition. Well that veteran composure paid off as he pitched his ass off in spring training and earned himself a spot in the bullpen. He started off sluggish. In his first appearance against the Dodgers Carlos walked three straight batters, who would eventually score. Let's just say the new role wasn't very fun.

But then things changed. Two days later he pitched a scoreless inning against the Cubbies and two days after that he pitched a flawless 2/3 against the North Side Scrubs. What started out rough turned into a 7th inning specialist, switching back and forth with Matt Wise. He became legit on April 23rd when a marathon game in Chicago called for Carlos to pitch four innings: the 8th-11th, facing some of the best hitters out there. The result was a huge come from behind wind for the Crew, helping to catapult their confidence. In May he pitched 22 innings giving up only 6 runs and, yielding a 2.42 ERA, then a 2.41 in June and then he fell off.

Going out there every other day appeared to take a toll on him and his ERA ballooned to 6.75 in June and then 10.32 in August when he was sent down to AAA to get some rest, build arm strength, and get some fresh arms in the bullpen before the Sept call-up. When Carlos returned in September, he destroyed the competition. In six appearances, he pitched 31.2 innings, allowing only 7 runs yielding a 1.99 ERA for September, finishing the year with a 3.94 ERA and and 8-5 record. That's just as respectable as the most highly tauted prospect in the Brewers system.

He won't keep it up, and I can admit that, but he'll be serviceable in every way possible, more serviceable than the rest of the guys on this squad.

Prediction: 32 starts, 10-12 record with a 4.42 ERA with 75 innings. I really think I'm low balling him here, but I have a bad feeling he's going to struggle. I bought a shirt baring his name, which usually ruins that guy's career (Derrick Turnbow e.g. Bought his jersey on T'Bow bobblehead day and he gave up a 9th inning homer to lose that game.)


The Other Guy: Chris Bushuano

From the looks of it, we have a switch throwing pitcher with the 2nd best pickoff move in baseball. Claudio Vargas will be gone, unless Guillermo Mota gets back on the anabolic sauce, leaving Chris Capuano and Dave Bush to battle. Both of these guys had a rough year in '07, both carrying an over 5.00 ERA, though their records suggest otherwise. Bush went 12-10 with a 5.12 ERA, while Cappy was reduced to a 5-12 record with a 5.10 ERA.

Bush wasn't as good as his record suggests, but he's durable and he'll get the job done. He only had two months with an ERA under 5, June with a 3.51 and July with a 4.31. Only 8 of his 29 starts made it through the 7th inning and those that finished in the 6th weren't that pretty either. It seemed like every time the Brewers needed to stop the bleeding, Bush fell off the wagon, but after finally becoming his own man and not pitching to the batter's weaknesses, but his own strengths, he became a bit more consistent. He still has a ton to improve in my eyes. All I can hear from the non-chalant fan is that he's led this team in SOs and wins the last two years, but those numbers mean nothing, ESPECIALLY wins. Wins are the most deceiving stat ever. Hell Dice K won 15 games last year with a 4.40 ERA, while Schilling only won 8 games with a 3.87 ERA. I rest my case. Run support matters and Capuano was throwing against the #3 pitcher most of the time, while Bush got to face the rookie.

Chris Capuano fell apart last year. Starting the year 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA in the first 7 games raised Brewers' fans' expectations higher than ever before, and how could it not. But things went down after that as he lost 5 of his next 6 starts, but scattered in there was a 7 inning 2-run showing against Atlanta and a 7 inning, 3 hit, 2 run no decision against FL. In June was place on the DL with a strained groin, and when he came back things didn't get much better. The Brewers ended up losing 18 straight games when Chris pained, most of them were not is fault in July. There's even a 8 inning 1 run performance against Cincy that led to a no decision, or a 7 inning, 4 hit, 2 run performance that yielded another no decision.

What more can you ask for? Instead of showing support for their pitcher, the fans and media began to rag pretty hard on him, which may have led to his to demise, as the rest of the team, in August, where he pitched a 7.63 ERA. His last two appearances were reasonable going 10 innings and giving up 4 runs total.

I'm sorry, but I may be hanging on to the negatives of one and the positives of another, but looking at the numbers and the individual performances, Cappy is the guy we need out there. This is going to be the biggest battle in camp. Everything else is pretty much set or will be played out during the first three weeks of the regular season. Let's hope Ned and Mike come up with the right answer, and that answer is: Chris Capuano