Hey guys, since I'm at work listening to the game and reading physics, I'll give an inning by inning run down of what went down here and there to keep people in the know.
2:15 PM In the top of the first, Rickie K'd, walk for Cameron, Prince singles and Cameron goes to third on it, Braun flied out to shallow right but it wasn't far enough to score Cam from 3rd, Hart singled right up the middle scoring Cam and Hall K'd out in front of a changeup.
2:26PM In the bottom half, Bush has already loaded the bases on two straight rockets and a walk. Yup... that's pretty normal. Grand Slam by Jack Cust seals Bush as the one big inning guy yet again. Ahead in the count 2-0 I believe and he knocked it out over Brauy's head. Still no outs, Crew down 4-1.
2:30 PM Quick pop-up followed by what sounded like a pretty solid and difficult play by Hall to get Crosby at first. And yet another base hit given up by Bush, a solid liner to the hole by Suzuki. One on and two out situation and Bush keeps pitching from behind. I can only remember one of his 6 batters starting with a strike, which is a big problem. He was supposed to go 2 innings or 35 pitches today. It looks like his 35 pitches will be up in the first. A foul out to Billy Hall ends the first with the Crew down 4-1.
2:47 PM I'd love to tell you what happened in the second, but I had to check my spec a million times because it was fidgety. I do know that when I came back Bush had walked a guy on four pitches. Now we're in the middle of the third and Hart is up. Because Brian Anderson is talking right now, i don't know who's on base, what the score is, or if there are anyone one.
3:00 PM Cust just drilled another homer. This time a solo shot to right off of Manny Parra.
Keep coming back for inning by inning updates.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Looking at the lineup again
The Brewers play their second exhibition game today against A's again and JS is already displaying the lineup which reads:
So let's think about this. On average, if a player plays the whole season he will get about 630 plate appearances. No matter what happens, Rickie Weeks is your leadoff guy, and his OBP will be about .380 this year. That means that of your 630 PAs, Rickie will be on for about 240 of them. With a difference of about 0.35 pitches/PA between all of these guys, Mike Cameron will see about 84 more pitches during the year than everyone else on the team with Rickie on base if he worked the two hole. That gives Rickie 84 more chances to steal a base, to force a throw away on a pick off or take the pitcher off of his game. Weeks has stolen 59 bases in his major league career and only been thrown out 9. Hell, he was 25/27 last year. That's pretty darn good. Career he has an 86% success rate on the paths. And if you think about it, that hole lefty neutralize thing doesn't work so well since Cameron is a pretty solid hitter against lefties going .265/.363/.480 which is a 20/30/46 point increase across the board over lefties.
Just something for you guys to mull over.
2B Rickie Weeks
CF Mike Cameron
1B Prince Fielder
LF Ryan Braun
RF Corey Hart
3B Bill Hall
SS J.J. Hardy
DH Joe Dillon
C Jason Kendall
RHP Dave Bush
And I can see people screaming right now about Mike Cameron in the two hole, but this is the second day in a row for this, and I think it may be a trend. While Mike is a high strikeout guy, I mentioned in a post a long time ago that he sees more than four pitches an AB at 4.04. This is compared to the league average which is around 3.75. Prince Fielder sees 3.70 pitches per plate appearance, which is weird because he walks so much, Ryan Braun sees 3.70, Corey Hart 3.62, JJ Hardy 3.78 and Rickie Weeks 4.07.So let's think about this. On average, if a player plays the whole season he will get about 630 plate appearances. No matter what happens, Rickie Weeks is your leadoff guy, and his OBP will be about .380 this year. That means that of your 630 PAs, Rickie will be on for about 240 of them. With a difference of about 0.35 pitches/PA between all of these guys, Mike Cameron will see about 84 more pitches during the year than everyone else on the team with Rickie on base if he worked the two hole. That gives Rickie 84 more chances to steal a base, to force a throw away on a pick off or take the pitcher off of his game. Weeks has stolen 59 bases in his major league career and only been thrown out 9. Hell, he was 25/27 last year. That's pretty darn good. Career he has an 86% success rate on the paths. And if you think about it, that hole lefty neutralize thing doesn't work so well since Cameron is a pretty solid hitter against lefties going .265/.363/.480 which is a 20/30/46 point increase across the board over lefties.
Just something for you guys to mull over.
Jeremy Jeffress a stand up guy?
With all the craziness abound in the Roger Clemens perjury and steroid scandal, it's hard to believe a young 20 year old kid with a beast of an arm can stand up and admit his flaws. Jeremy Jeffress is a 6'0, 175 pound right handed pitcher, who was picked in the first round by the Brewers in the 2006 First Year Players' Draft, and at the age of 18 he was immediately tossed into the bin as one of the top 5 prospects in the system. This simply the result of his A++ fastball, which clocks over a 100 MPH consistently, and a high school senior year ERA of 0.19. But like many young kids who think they have it made after getting drafted, Jeremy went off into his own world and neglected the rules that professional baseball lay upon its players.
In 2 years of professional baseball, Jeffress has tested positive for a substance of abuse four (from what I can tell) different times, which is right up there with the likes of Rickey Williams of the Miami Dolphins. That's marijuana for those not in the know. As a result, Jeremy will have to sit out the first 40 games of this season, bleeding over from a 50 game suspension that began at the end of last year. As a Brewers fan, it's been pretty depressing to see this kid drop this low, especially because the lack of power arms in the system has been pretty minimal for a very long time, but there's a hope.
In yet another Haudricourt article today, Jeffress has come clean, so much so that he's admitted spending up to a month in a rehab center to get sober. Even further, since MLB and the Brewers are not allowed to reveal the drug he tested positive for, Jeffress, himself, revealed he was in fact fighting a marijuana addiction, even though most of us had already been informed. I don't know about any one else, but this is a breath of fresh air in a baseball world that has been scattered with liars upon liars over the last decade.
From HGH to anabolic steroids and even to alcohol abuse, baseball has been frayed at the edges and in its core by drug use whether it be performance enhancing or hindering. But its nice to see someone come clean without getting forced by subpoena or accusations in an article or book. The best thing Brewers fans should get out of this article isn't so much the progress of Jeffress who has really put himself at the back of the line for his mistakes, but how Reid Nichols and the minor league farm directors are handling Jeremy. They helped him find a program, stick to it and work his way out of a tough situation. It's a testament to a group of guys who have helped build the talents we see on the field at Miller Park. And on behalf of all Brewers fans out there, I would like to thank all of the gentlemen involved in the development of our young ballplayers, not just as athletes, but as men. Because no matter how long they play baseball, the will always be men and men are much more valuable to this world.
In 2 years of professional baseball, Jeffress has tested positive for a substance of abuse four (from what I can tell) different times, which is right up there with the likes of Rickey Williams of the Miami Dolphins. That's marijuana for those not in the know. As a result, Jeremy will have to sit out the first 40 games of this season, bleeding over from a 50 game suspension that began at the end of last year. As a Brewers fan, it's been pretty depressing to see this kid drop this low, especially because the lack of power arms in the system has been pretty minimal for a very long time, but there's a hope.
In yet another Haudricourt article today, Jeffress has come clean, so much so that he's admitted spending up to a month in a rehab center to get sober. Even further, since MLB and the Brewers are not allowed to reveal the drug he tested positive for, Jeffress, himself, revealed he was in fact fighting a marijuana addiction, even though most of us had already been informed. I don't know about any one else, but this is a breath of fresh air in a baseball world that has been scattered with liars upon liars over the last decade.
From HGH to anabolic steroids and even to alcohol abuse, baseball has been frayed at the edges and in its core by drug use whether it be performance enhancing or hindering. But its nice to see someone come clean without getting forced by subpoena or accusations in an article or book. The best thing Brewers fans should get out of this article isn't so much the progress of Jeffress who has really put himself at the back of the line for his mistakes, but how Reid Nichols and the minor league farm directors are handling Jeremy. They helped him find a program, stick to it and work his way out of a tough situation. It's a testament to a group of guys who have helped build the talents we see on the field at Miller Park. And on behalf of all Brewers fans out there, I would like to thank all of the gentlemen involved in the development of our young ballplayers, not just as athletes, but as men. Because no matter how long they play baseball, the will always be men and men are much more valuable to this world.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
It's official: Brian Anderson needs to go back to golf
I'm sorry Brian, but after listening to your snooze-fest on the webcast of today's Brewers' first exhibition, I've never felt so lost. And while you can sort of hold your own on TV, you offer no thoughtful insight, you rarely mention the count and you never say what the pitch was or where it was located. You're a nice guy, but give the ball back to Ueker. Hell, I'll even take Darren Sutton back. At least he had some memorable one-liners. It's unfortunate that I have to mute the TV and put on 620. Motivate me damnit! Make me care!
As for the game: 6 runs in the first 2 innings, 3 RBIs for Braun including a 2-run shot and 2 RBIs for Fielder. Cameron also had two hits with a stolen base, Gabe Gross got on twice with a double and a walk, and Matt LaPorta drilled his first extra base hit of the season against a true minor league pitcher.
Final score: Crew 7 A's 1
The only run given up by the Crew was a solo shot by Dan Johnson off of former Padre Scott Cassidy. From what little info I got from Anderson, it sounded like Pena looked good as well as former Cardinal lefty Chris Narveson who is getting no ink at all. Claudio pitched two scoreless but does what he always does which is put guys on base.
Go Crew!
As for the game: 6 runs in the first 2 innings, 3 RBIs for Braun including a 2-run shot and 2 RBIs for Fielder. Cameron also had two hits with a stolen base, Gabe Gross got on twice with a double and a walk, and Matt LaPorta drilled his first extra base hit of the season against a true minor league pitcher.
Final score: Crew 7 A's 1
The only run given up by the Crew was a solo shot by Dan Johnson off of former Padre Scott Cassidy. From what little info I got from Anderson, it sounded like Pena looked good as well as former Cardinal lefty Chris Narveson who is getting no ink at all. Claudio pitched two scoreless but does what he always does which is put guys on base.
Go Crew!
Let the countdown begin.
March 1st, 2008 is on the horizon, which means one thing to me: St. Patrick's Day in 15 days! Wait, I'm from Wisconsin. I'm not Irish. Oh yeah, 30 (+2) days 'til the Brewers open the regular season at soon to be changed Wrigley Field against the yet again revamped Cubs squad. Most of us cannot maintain our composure. People don't seem to understand that when you wait to be a contender for as long as Brewers' fans have, the more excited you get just for opportunities. As a Green Bay homer, I know the feeling of winning a championship and being in the city as it celebrated. Milwaukee needs that excitement, it needs the revenue, but most importantly, it needs to create its own identity as a professional sports town. But that's a topic for the talk radio hosts.
Nevertheless, the Brewers open their exhibition season today against the Oakland Athletics at 2PM. For those of you who care, you can purchase Gameday Audio at MLB for the entire season for only $14.95. It's been quite nice for me since I can't get out of work for most day games, and in the steel encasing that is my lab, there is absolutely no reception. Gameday is always money.
Speaking of money (how about that transition?), it sounds like Gord Ash and Doug Melvin are working their magic as usual and are in the process of finishing off 2008 contracts for Braun and Fielder, so that's one less thing to have to think about. There's never really any worry about getting guys with 3 years or less of experience because they don't have a leg to stand on in these 'negotiations', but Braun and Fielder are both looking at significant raises. I know for sure that Fielder only made $450,000 last year and Braun probably a third or half of that since he spent some time in the minors. It sounds like when all is said and done, and exempting any long term deals that will be offered to Fielder and Weeks, the Brewers' salary will consist of $86 million dollars, $27 million of which will be eliminated about the potential departures of Ben Sheets, Mike Cameron and Eric Gagne at the end of the season. It's pretty funny to think that 5-6 years ago that $27 mil would have been the whole team.
Other than that, all things are quiet on the Brewers' front, which is good and bad. It's understandable that Doug is reluctant to discuss any deals right now with the injury of Yovani Gallardo, but I imagine he's had some discussions with other GMs if anybody is desparate. The thing is that the Brewers don't need any help at the big league level. Every position is set top to bottom in the lineup, but all I keep hearing is this team needs a left-handed bat. And while that's true, people fail to realize that there's no where to place them in the lineup unless you yank someone out or get rid of them, which I'm not okay with.
This team has straight up chemistry. They've all played in the minor league system together with the exception of Braun, who has Alcides Escobar and Matt LaPorta coming up soon to set up the second clan of homegrown talent. The biggest hole on this team right now is still the bat off Billy Hall at third base, but why? Why would you get rid of a guy that's stood pat and has done everything for you? It's setting the tone for the rest of the team and it may scare some of the young guys that may be willing to take bargain deals for a franchise that takes care of its people. It's called job stability and comfort, and while good pro ballplayers don't have to worry so much about stability, comfort is key.
If you guys want to catch some of the interactions on the team, you should hit up the Journal Sentinel online, where Anthony Witrado and Tom Haudricourt interview some of the guys about their game and the year. While I enjoy reading McCalvey's posts on milwaukeebrewers.com, I just feel like he's always one step behind of the Journal and plays the homer game more because he works for MLB and perhaps the Brewers. Either way the Journal has up some one of a kind video snip-its that I watch every day to see the guys in Arizona, which will have to suffice until the Crew comes home on March 27th to play an exhibition game at Miller Park.
One last thing. Catchers have a tendency to talk a lot about how much they like pitchers and what they're doing, but they're easy to read. If they start saying the cliche statements like, "He's throwing real well. Good location and velocity. He looks good," they're not impressed. But if those comments are strewn with, "The ball explodes out of his hand," or, "I was very impressed," good things are to come. Stay focused TBow. This team may need you more than you expect.
Nevertheless, the Brewers open their exhibition season today against the Oakland Athletics at 2PM. For those of you who care, you can purchase Gameday Audio at MLB for the entire season for only $14.95. It's been quite nice for me since I can't get out of work for most day games, and in the steel encasing that is my lab, there is absolutely no reception. Gameday is always money.
Speaking of money (how about that transition?), it sounds like Gord Ash and Doug Melvin are working their magic as usual and are in the process of finishing off 2008 contracts for Braun and Fielder, so that's one less thing to have to think about. There's never really any worry about getting guys with 3 years or less of experience because they don't have a leg to stand on in these 'negotiations', but Braun and Fielder are both looking at significant raises. I know for sure that Fielder only made $450,000 last year and Braun probably a third or half of that since he spent some time in the minors. It sounds like when all is said and done, and exempting any long term deals that will be offered to Fielder and Weeks, the Brewers' salary will consist of $86 million dollars, $27 million of which will be eliminated about the potential departures of Ben Sheets, Mike Cameron and Eric Gagne at the end of the season. It's pretty funny to think that 5-6 years ago that $27 mil would have been the whole team.
Other than that, all things are quiet on the Brewers' front, which is good and bad. It's understandable that Doug is reluctant to discuss any deals right now with the injury of Yovani Gallardo, but I imagine he's had some discussions with other GMs if anybody is desparate. The thing is that the Brewers don't need any help at the big league level. Every position is set top to bottom in the lineup, but all I keep hearing is this team needs a left-handed bat. And while that's true, people fail to realize that there's no where to place them in the lineup unless you yank someone out or get rid of them, which I'm not okay with.
This team has straight up chemistry. They've all played in the minor league system together with the exception of Braun, who has Alcides Escobar and Matt LaPorta coming up soon to set up the second clan of homegrown talent. The biggest hole on this team right now is still the bat off Billy Hall at third base, but why? Why would you get rid of a guy that's stood pat and has done everything for you? It's setting the tone for the rest of the team and it may scare some of the young guys that may be willing to take bargain deals for a franchise that takes care of its people. It's called job stability and comfort, and while good pro ballplayers don't have to worry so much about stability, comfort is key.
If you guys want to catch some of the interactions on the team, you should hit up the Journal Sentinel online, where Anthony Witrado and Tom Haudricourt interview some of the guys about their game and the year. While I enjoy reading McCalvey's posts on milwaukeebrewers.com, I just feel like he's always one step behind of the Journal and plays the homer game more because he works for MLB and perhaps the Brewers. Either way the Journal has up some one of a kind video snip-its that I watch every day to see the guys in Arizona, which will have to suffice until the Crew comes home on March 27th to play an exhibition game at Miller Park.
One last thing. Catchers have a tendency to talk a lot about how much they like pitchers and what they're doing, but they're easy to read. If they start saying the cliche statements like, "He's throwing real well. Good location and velocity. He looks good," they're not impressed. But if those comments are strewn with, "The ball explodes out of his hand," or, "I was very impressed," good things are to come. Stay focused TBow. This team may need you more than you expect.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Villanueva: A Minor Leaguer?! And assorted goods.
Ugh, I can't believe Yost just mentioned Villanueva has options and may have to take one for the team. That is completely heinous. You got a guy who has a career 3.86 ERA in 168 innings in two seasons and you're going to demote him because you don't have the ratchets to toss underperforming players like Capuano, Bush and Vargas into the fire. For a team that talks about winning now, they sure are scaring me.
On a side note: I won't be able to post nearly as much as before because the newly instituted firewall at work denies me the opportunity to post or comment, though I can read anything. I may have to move the blog to another site if necessary. More information on the way.
As for the research regarding pitchers numbers before and after catchers, I've realized that I have no idea where to start, and therefore it may take some time. And in other news, the Brewers signed Russell Branyan to a minor league contract yesterday, which was great news. This gives us big league experience and depth in the minors, which is comforting. Branyan really isn't that good, but if he does make the trip, we'll get some entertaining long shots.
Oh, and Prince Fielder's a vegetarian all of a sudden... no joke.
On a side note: I won't be able to post nearly as much as before because the newly instituted firewall at work denies me the opportunity to post or comment, though I can read anything. I may have to move the blog to another site if necessary. More information on the way.
As for the research regarding pitchers numbers before and after catchers, I've realized that I have no idea where to start, and therefore it may take some time. And in other news, the Brewers signed Russell Branyan to a minor league contract yesterday, which was great news. This gives us big league experience and depth in the minors, which is comforting. Branyan really isn't that good, but if he does make the trip, we'll get some entertaining long shots.
Oh, and Prince Fielder's a vegetarian all of a sudden... no joke.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
I've already fell in love with this team...
I can't help it. These guys are fun, arrogant and humble all at the same time. But most importantly, they're passionate. The media reported that the entire starting lineup showed up to camp yesterday, which is relatively unheard of these days, especially for veterans like Mike Cameron. Even Yost and Sveum didn't expect their guys to show up early, but they did and they all started practicing, even if they may not have had their gloves just yet. I'm excited and though my trip to AZ has been canceled because of unforeseen circumstances, 9 of the first 10 games and Nashville are inevitable.
The big news for me though is reading a bit of the interview with Ben Sheets from the only reliable Brewers' source, Tom Haudricourt. It appears all the media and barbs thrown his way has finally gotten to the 29-year old righty and frustration is coming through. Good thing or bad thing? I honestly have to say good thing. You often only hear jokes from Sheets and a lack of motivation or fire. In the few quotes offered by Tom, he seems competitive and ready to shut some people up.
I can honestly say, I'm not one of those guys who rags on Sheets. I have harped on Sheets for his inability to stay healthy as well as whether or not he's earned the money from his big contract, but when he's in this rotation, he offers incredible stability and morale. Ben is not one of those dime a dozen guys you can just give up on, but at the same time, the Brewers might have to at the end of the season. You would hope Ben will give Milwaukee a hometown discount for paying him 8-11 million dollars a year over the last 3 years, but you can't expect anything. Ben will make 13-16 million a year when this year is over and unless this team makes enough revenue to accommodate him, Sheets will end up on a big market team.
Nevertheless, Sheets is the ace this year. He will start another Opening Day barring injury and he will smoke the Cubs like he does every year. A mid-level 90s fastball and a nasty overhand curve, coupled with the newly acquired change-up, Ben has the stuff that leads to sub-3.00 ERAs, provided he stays out of trouble in the early innings when he isn't as sharp. If you can get 30 starts out of him and maybe Yovani, you're going to find yourself atop the division or at the bare minimum in a wild card race.
I think I've given up on the remainder of the position analysis. The grueling research journey can be saved for times when I'm motivated. If there's something you, the readers, would like me to work on, feel free to e-mail me or comment at any time. I'm open to any and all suggestions.
The big news for me though is reading a bit of the interview with Ben Sheets from the only reliable Brewers' source, Tom Haudricourt. It appears all the media and barbs thrown his way has finally gotten to the 29-year old righty and frustration is coming through. Good thing or bad thing? I honestly have to say good thing. You often only hear jokes from Sheets and a lack of motivation or fire. In the few quotes offered by Tom, he seems competitive and ready to shut some people up.
I can honestly say, I'm not one of those guys who rags on Sheets. I have harped on Sheets for his inability to stay healthy as well as whether or not he's earned the money from his big contract, but when he's in this rotation, he offers incredible stability and morale. Ben is not one of those dime a dozen guys you can just give up on, but at the same time, the Brewers might have to at the end of the season. You would hope Ben will give Milwaukee a hometown discount for paying him 8-11 million dollars a year over the last 3 years, but you can't expect anything. Ben will make 13-16 million a year when this year is over and unless this team makes enough revenue to accommodate him, Sheets will end up on a big market team.
Nevertheless, Sheets is the ace this year. He will start another Opening Day barring injury and he will smoke the Cubs like he does every year. A mid-level 90s fastball and a nasty overhand curve, coupled with the newly acquired change-up, Ben has the stuff that leads to sub-3.00 ERAs, provided he stays out of trouble in the early innings when he isn't as sharp. If you can get 30 starts out of him and maybe Yovani, you're going to find yourself atop the division or at the bare minimum in a wild card race.
I think I've given up on the remainder of the position analysis. The grueling research journey can be saved for times when I'm motivated. If there's something you, the readers, would like me to work on, feel free to e-mail me or comment at any time. I'm open to any and all suggestions.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Position Analysis: Coaching
If you go to the JSOnline.com today you can find an article by Tom Haudricourt, in which he discusses his rather candid interview with Ned Yost about the virtual meltdown the Brewers went through during the last 2 months of the season. And Tom was right, it was rather candid, and extremely frustrating because what that interview told me is that Ned's team dictates him, and he does not dictate his team. While he's realized that and has shown some promise in changing these things by keeping some of his players on a short least, he still has a long way to go if you thinks he's going to be an elite coach.
Head Coach: Ned Yost
This will be Ned's sixth year as the Brewers' skipper, and expectations for his team and him are higher than ever after leading the 2007 Crew to an 83-79 record. Ned's career record stands at 374-434, which is surprisingly close to .500 since he started coaching the Brewers when they had that amazing sub-$30-million team salary.
Ned's a pretty erratic coach, changing his lineups quite regularly, which I really wouldn't mind if he would just give each one more than a couple of days to work. He makes it relatively difficult for his teams to settle in and get into a groove. While some players like staying on their toes, most young players would prefer knowing what they're going to do that day when they arrive at the park so they can acclimate themselves to the Major League game.
While this type of behavior can really bog a team down, Ned's unchallenged support and protection for his players earns him all the respect he needs to get his players to play for him without question. However, this can lead to some problems. One of Ned's biggest criticisms is that he lets his players struggle far too long before pulling the plug. The most important instances last year were waiting to yank Kevin Mench and Bill Hall and leaving pitchers like Dave Bush and Derrick Turnbow in for too long so as to not damage their fragile professional egos.
This year Ned to needs to not make this mistake again. Yes, you need to give players some leeway, but if they're not doing their job, there needs to be some repercussions, whether it's a demotion or a week on the bench with extra required drills. As professionals with a couple of years experience and a 'win now' attitude, these guys can easily understand that production matters and if they're not getting the job done, they're going to run out of chances. Sometimes you have to sour some relationships because they'll eventually get over it. It's not his fault he had to yank you, it's your own.
To be continued... Don't have time to finish tonight.
Head Coach: Ned Yost
This will be Ned's sixth year as the Brewers' skipper, and expectations for his team and him are higher than ever after leading the 2007 Crew to an 83-79 record. Ned's career record stands at 374-434, which is surprisingly close to .500 since he started coaching the Brewers when they had that amazing sub-$30-million team salary.
Ned's a pretty erratic coach, changing his lineups quite regularly, which I really wouldn't mind if he would just give each one more than a couple of days to work. He makes it relatively difficult for his teams to settle in and get into a groove. While some players like staying on their toes, most young players would prefer knowing what they're going to do that day when they arrive at the park so they can acclimate themselves to the Major League game.
While this type of behavior can really bog a team down, Ned's unchallenged support and protection for his players earns him all the respect he needs to get his players to play for him without question. However, this can lead to some problems. One of Ned's biggest criticisms is that he lets his players struggle far too long before pulling the plug. The most important instances last year were waiting to yank Kevin Mench and Bill Hall and leaving pitchers like Dave Bush and Derrick Turnbow in for too long so as to not damage their fragile professional egos.
This year Ned to needs to not make this mistake again. Yes, you need to give players some leeway, but if they're not doing their job, there needs to be some repercussions, whether it's a demotion or a week on the bench with extra required drills. As professionals with a couple of years experience and a 'win now' attitude, these guys can easily understand that production matters and if they're not getting the job done, they're going to run out of chances. Sometimes you have to sour some relationships because they'll eventually get over it. It's not his fault he had to yank you, it's your own.
To be continued... Don't have time to finish tonight.
Yo: Hurt already!
Tom Haudricourt is reporting that Brewers ace, Yovani Gallardo likely has torn cartilage in his knee and might have to have it scoped, putting him on the sidelines for at least 2 weeks and then rehab for however long is necessary. I've had my knee scoped before, you start walking in 2 days, but you really can't plant or run for about a week, unless you're Phillip Rivers.
Both knees are very important for pitchers in order to shift weight and plant properly, so it really doesn't matter much which one it is, just that one of them is hurt. Let's hope that Yovani's age will allow him to heal faster and move on quickly.
Both knees are very important for pitchers in order to shift weight and plant properly, so it really doesn't matter much which one it is, just that one of them is hurt. Let's hope that Yovani's age will allow him to heal faster and move on quickly.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Position Analysis: The Bench
As we speak, pitchers and catchers are stretching and joking around with each other and other early reports. The remainder of the team is to report by February 23rd. It's an exciting time to say the least. Hopefully my father will get excited too and we can take a trip to Maryvalle to see them a bit early. That may over power the trip to Nashville.
Last night the Brewers and JJ Hardy were able to get to come to an agreement just in time to avoid a trip to Florida for an arbitration hearing. JJ will receive $2.65 million this year, which was below the medium point. I always loved this stat, but in all the years Doug Melvin has been here, no one has officially gone to arbitration. Just kind of shows you the kind of organization he runs.
In today's post we're going to go over the potential bench players Yost has at his disposal. I'm always weary of teams who say what Doug Melvin said a couple of days ago, which was that the Brewers bench is built for defense. Umm... isn't that what the AL is supposed to do? Because they don't pinch hit, and therefore, all of the moves can be focused on the defensive side of things. In the NL, pinch hitting is a hot commodity that gives you options at the plate during late innings and pitching changes.
The Vet: Craig Counsell
I, like many of the readers of this blog, am a bit of a Jeff Cirillo apologist, but it's only because of Craig Counsell. Craig has really only had one good year during his career which was a .316/.400/.421 stint in his first year with the Diamondbacks, but his career .257/.343/.347 tells you how not amazing he is. I appreciate the .343 OBP, but in 2006 and 2007, he's only managed a .327 and .323. An anomaly in 2005 put him at .350, but then 2003 and 2004 .328 and .330. It's been frustrating to look at that and see a guy like Jeff Cirillo leave the team with a .296/.366/.430. And while his numbers have dwindled every now and then because of sparse play, when he gets his games, he gets his money's worth. In his 2005 and 2006 stint with the Brewers, Jeff batted .281/.373/.427 and .319/.369/.414. Umm... Yes please, Jeff Cirillo apologist.
But this piece isn't about what we lost, it's about what we have and that is lefty bat, Craig Counsell. Craig batted a woeful .220/.323/.309 last year. Let's just say that if you slug lower than your OBP, you have some problems. The plus side of Craig, however, has always been his defense. In 278 chances last year, Craig only committed two errors. This was a great benefit for a team that struggled mightily in that are last year, even though his range isn't what it used to be. But does defense make up for a failure at the plate? I wish I could say so, but this team needed a more reliable AB in pitch hitting/platoon situations. I like the OBP vs Avg differential, but .323 is not serviceable, especially for a veteran like Craig.
Predictions: .235/.317/.310 with the same quality and versatile defense.
The Lefty Bat: Gabe Gross
I guess the word of the day is 'apologist'. Last year I got into quite a few heated debates with South Side Rob of the Brewer Nation blog about the potential and necessity to play Gabe Gross. To say the least, he was vindicated for parts of the year and so was I. Gabe's career numbers aren't really that good, going .245/.343/.410, but I want to point out the near 100 point differential between the OBP and batting average. This is why Gabe could be a starting outfielder, or at least a platoon outfielder in a lot of places around the league. The career numbers don't really do him justice, but a 2006 stint of .274/.382/.476 show that this guy has some serious potential.
Last season was a bit of a let down though. He started off the year, doing exactly what I expect out of him reaching base, 14 times in 31 ABs, walking in 8 of them. That's a .438 OBP for those without a calculator. But the lack of playing time and feeling that he deserved some playing time started to bog him down and those numbers fell, and they fell pretty drastically over the next few months, resulting in a demotion to AAA in July to get his bearings.
While there, Gabe raked going .355/.456/.605 in 20 games. Yeah, that's what the guy can do, and I guess Yost realized it and brought him back up. In August, Gabe hit .356/.366/.725, an amazing slugging, but a failed OBP, with only one walk. Apparently this was a wall that Gabe couldn't break through and he finished September with a .204/.317/.316 and ending the year with .235/.329/.437 totals. Again, the differential is great and the slugging suggests he has some pop, so you're looking at the biggest threat on the Brewers' bench.
Predictions: .255/.360/.440 With sub-par defense and some bombs. You can't expect an Auburn quarterback to be good on defense anyways.
Voyage Vet: Joe Dillon
Joe Dillon may have taken til the age of 31 to make it and stay in the big leagues, but he did it with hard work and claws that are wicked sharp. In 39 games with the Brewers last year, Joe went .342/.390/.500. Pretty impressive showing to say the least, but not necessarily convincing just yet. Dillon still has a lot to prove to me and to all of the other fans in Milwaukee. If you really want to call yourself a journey-man you have to make your stay a long one.
The upside of Dillon is his versatility. Even if he struggles at the plate, which he will, he can give us some defensive security at 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner OF positions, which is a lost art with most players. I just hope he becomes that guy that everybody continues to call the Journey Man, because if he loses that title, he's lost his game.
Predictions: .240/.330/.412 God I hope I'm wrong here. I like the idea of this guy on this team.
Hoffman Killer: Tony Gwynn Jr.
I've showed plenty of praise for this guy, and I think a lot of Brewers fans are rooting for him, but the unfortunate truth is, he's blocked on this squad by the move of Ryan Braun to left and the imminent arrival of Matt LaPorta. Barring injuries, this might be the last year we see Tony Gwynn have a legitimate shot at starting more than a couple of games, meaning he'll likely get traded down the road. But until that happens, I'll be rooting for him.
TG batted a meager .260/.326/.317 last year, but did manage 8/9 steals and two triples, one of which knocked the Padres out of the playoffs. He's got a lot of work to do all around, but he's speed gives him a step on defense and on the bases. Therefore, he becomes a pinch running threat off the bench. So put your best OBP guy up, get him on base and send in Tony.
There isn't much else I can say about Tony. Every feeling I have and everything I've seen hits on my instincts and it's not because his name is Gwynn. All he needs is better vision. I don't care about power, just OBP and with his speed, all he has to do is put the ball in play and run like the wind.
Predictions: .270/.340/.390 with about 10-15 SBs.
Minor League Coach: Gabe Kapler
Kapler's numbers are hardly impressive. He' a career .270/.331/.418 hitter with only two years of above a .350 OBP, but he has playoff experience, plays a decent OF and can back up first base when needed. The down side is he's coming of a ruptured Achilles tendon from 2005 and really hasn't been healthy since. Hopefully the year of coaching last year in the minor league affiliates last year, helped him stay off it and slowly strengthen it back up.
Predictions: .260/.329/.450 Nothing special, but what can you expect from a guy who hasn't played ball in a year?
I'm spent. Coaching analysis tomorrow. We'll see how nice I can be to Ned Yost after I read his interview with Haurdricourt tomorrow in the Journal Sentinel.
Last night the Brewers and JJ Hardy were able to get to come to an agreement just in time to avoid a trip to Florida for an arbitration hearing. JJ will receive $2.65 million this year, which was below the medium point. I always loved this stat, but in all the years Doug Melvin has been here, no one has officially gone to arbitration. Just kind of shows you the kind of organization he runs.
In today's post we're going to go over the potential bench players Yost has at his disposal. I'm always weary of teams who say what Doug Melvin said a couple of days ago, which was that the Brewers bench is built for defense. Umm... isn't that what the AL is supposed to do? Because they don't pinch hit, and therefore, all of the moves can be focused on the defensive side of things. In the NL, pinch hitting is a hot commodity that gives you options at the plate during late innings and pitching changes.
The Vet: Craig Counsell
I, like many of the readers of this blog, am a bit of a Jeff Cirillo apologist, but it's only because of Craig Counsell. Craig has really only had one good year during his career which was a .316/.400/.421 stint in his first year with the Diamondbacks, but his career .257/.343/.347 tells you how not amazing he is. I appreciate the .343 OBP, but in 2006 and 2007, he's only managed a .327 and .323. An anomaly in 2005 put him at .350, but then 2003 and 2004 .328 and .330. It's been frustrating to look at that and see a guy like Jeff Cirillo leave the team with a .296/.366/.430. And while his numbers have dwindled every now and then because of sparse play, when he gets his games, he gets his money's worth. In his 2005 and 2006 stint with the Brewers, Jeff batted .281/.373/.427 and .319/.369/.414. Umm... Yes please, Jeff Cirillo apologist.
But this piece isn't about what we lost, it's about what we have and that is lefty bat, Craig Counsell. Craig batted a woeful .220/.323/.309 last year. Let's just say that if you slug lower than your OBP, you have some problems. The plus side of Craig, however, has always been his defense. In 278 chances last year, Craig only committed two errors. This was a great benefit for a team that struggled mightily in that are last year, even though his range isn't what it used to be. But does defense make up for a failure at the plate? I wish I could say so, but this team needed a more reliable AB in pitch hitting/platoon situations. I like the OBP vs Avg differential, but .323 is not serviceable, especially for a veteran like Craig.
Predictions: .235/.317/.310 with the same quality and versatile defense.
The Lefty Bat: Gabe Gross
I guess the word of the day is 'apologist'. Last year I got into quite a few heated debates with South Side Rob of the Brewer Nation blog about the potential and necessity to play Gabe Gross. To say the least, he was vindicated for parts of the year and so was I. Gabe's career numbers aren't really that good, going .245/.343/.410, but I want to point out the near 100 point differential between the OBP and batting average. This is why Gabe could be a starting outfielder, or at least a platoon outfielder in a lot of places around the league. The career numbers don't really do him justice, but a 2006 stint of .274/.382/.476 show that this guy has some serious potential.
Last season was a bit of a let down though. He started off the year, doing exactly what I expect out of him reaching base, 14 times in 31 ABs, walking in 8 of them. That's a .438 OBP for those without a calculator. But the lack of playing time and feeling that he deserved some playing time started to bog him down and those numbers fell, and they fell pretty drastically over the next few months, resulting in a demotion to AAA in July to get his bearings.
While there, Gabe raked going .355/.456/.605 in 20 games. Yeah, that's what the guy can do, and I guess Yost realized it and brought him back up. In August, Gabe hit .356/.366/.725, an amazing slugging, but a failed OBP, with only one walk. Apparently this was a wall that Gabe couldn't break through and he finished September with a .204/.317/.316 and ending the year with .235/.329/.437 totals. Again, the differential is great and the slugging suggests he has some pop, so you're looking at the biggest threat on the Brewers' bench.
Predictions: .255/.360/.440 With sub-par defense and some bombs. You can't expect an Auburn quarterback to be good on defense anyways.
Voyage Vet: Joe Dillon
Joe Dillon may have taken til the age of 31 to make it and stay in the big leagues, but he did it with hard work and claws that are wicked sharp. In 39 games with the Brewers last year, Joe went .342/.390/.500. Pretty impressive showing to say the least, but not necessarily convincing just yet. Dillon still has a lot to prove to me and to all of the other fans in Milwaukee. If you really want to call yourself a journey-man you have to make your stay a long one.
The upside of Dillon is his versatility. Even if he struggles at the plate, which he will, he can give us some defensive security at 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner OF positions, which is a lost art with most players. I just hope he becomes that guy that everybody continues to call the Journey Man, because if he loses that title, he's lost his game.
Predictions: .240/.330/.412 God I hope I'm wrong here. I like the idea of this guy on this team.
Hoffman Killer: Tony Gwynn Jr.
I've showed plenty of praise for this guy, and I think a lot of Brewers fans are rooting for him, but the unfortunate truth is, he's blocked on this squad by the move of Ryan Braun to left and the imminent arrival of Matt LaPorta. Barring injuries, this might be the last year we see Tony Gwynn have a legitimate shot at starting more than a couple of games, meaning he'll likely get traded down the road. But until that happens, I'll be rooting for him.
TG batted a meager .260/.326/.317 last year, but did manage 8/9 steals and two triples, one of which knocked the Padres out of the playoffs. He's got a lot of work to do all around, but he's speed gives him a step on defense and on the bases. Therefore, he becomes a pinch running threat off the bench. So put your best OBP guy up, get him on base and send in Tony.
There isn't much else I can say about Tony. Every feeling I have and everything I've seen hits on my instincts and it's not because his name is Gwynn. All he needs is better vision. I don't care about power, just OBP and with his speed, all he has to do is put the ball in play and run like the wind.
Predictions: .270/.340/.390 with about 10-15 SBs.
Minor League Coach: Gabe Kapler
Kapler's numbers are hardly impressive. He' a career .270/.331/.418 hitter with only two years of above a .350 OBP, but he has playoff experience, plays a decent OF and can back up first base when needed. The down side is he's coming of a ruptured Achilles tendon from 2005 and really hasn't been healthy since. Hopefully the year of coaching last year in the minor league affiliates last year, helped him stay off it and slowly strengthen it back up.
Predictions: .260/.329/.450 Nothing special, but what can you expect from a guy who hasn't played ball in a year?
I'm spent. Coaching analysis tomorrow. We'll see how nice I can be to Ned Yost after I read his interview with Haurdricourt tomorrow in the Journal Sentinel.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Position Analysis: Shortstop and the Outfield
Well, it's been quite a while since I've followed up my position analysis. The research and writing has been a bit more grueling than I expected. I have a problem with having to finish something no matter how long it takes, so instead of starting the longer posts, I put them off because I don't have the time. Regardless, my absence has been inexcusable, and with pitchers and catchers reporting in just a couple of days, I have some catching up to do.
Before I get into it, the usual housekeeping I do every post reveals that the Brewers re-signed Chris Spurling, but thankfully to a minor league contract. The depth in the minors for pitching is a bit shaky and Spurling did quite a good job last year eating up innings when we needed him to. There's no room for him in the bigs and with the free agent market being as it is, I'm sure he's happy to go somewhere familiar to him, with the opportunity to get some innings when injuries come around.
Shortstop: JJ Hardy
JJ is coming off his first full season in majors as one of the big surprises for the Brewers, mostly because of his power numbers. I say this is JJ's first full season because it's the first time he's made it unscathed as far as injuries go. JJ finished the year going .277/.321/.429 with 26 HRs, 80 RBIs and about 60 baserunning mistakes, but I'll discuss that later.
As mentioned before, JJ's power numbers were phenomenal, for a shortstop anyways, but the problem lies in that huge .321 OBP. It's hideous, and if you take away the first two months of the season, you're looking at a .310 OBP, which Ned should realize is not what a 2-hitter hits. I'm one of the few people out there who think JJ's got a long way to go with his bat, especially his pitch selection. If he can recreate his OBP of the first two months, .350, then we're looking at probably the 1st or 2nd best infield in the NL.
Overall, I'm not worried about JJ's bat. It'll come around and he tends to hit very well in clutch situations, but I cannot stand watching JJ on the bases. He never looks comfortable and when he looks confident, he's misjudged something and gets busted up. BP did a study on baserunners and have marked him as one of the 10 worst baserunners in th league. I know that Yost "Threw out the rule book," in regards to baserunning last year, but JJ couldn't get from first to third if his life depended on it or if someone hit a triple. It's not a big part of his game, but it's another part that needs to improve.
Predictions: .270/.331/.400 JJ will figure out the OBP problem on a year by year basis, but you can't expect him to hit 26 HRs again this year. I'm looking at 18-20 and his RBIs will depend solely on where he gets placed in the lineup. Again, I don't like him in the two hole. I actually like Kendall (I get a lot of flack for that) because of his OBP and uncanny ability to hit every single ball on the ground like Jeff Cirillo. Hopefully Escobar gets his numbers up and JJ spends the next two years increasing his trade value because Weeks, Hart, Braun and Fielder are staying for the next 6 years. I like JJ as a person, but his ceiling is only a little above average.
Right Field: Corey Hart
"I wear my sunglasses at night..." Ah, that never gets old. I'm a Corey Hart fan, more so than I thought I would be when he first came into the league. It's become rather apparent that Corey is one of the most under-rated right-fielders in the league right now, considering he's only 25. Corey batted .295/.353/.539 last year, hitting for 24 HRs, 81 RBIs and swiping 20 bases becoming the first Brewer in two decades to go 20/20 in a season. Corey showed excellent patience at the plate, as shown by the 58 point differential between his Avg and OBP, but struck out a bit too much (99), but the key to his season was consistency.
The power was almost non-existent at the beginning of the year, but the team could live without his slugging. After the first two months of play, Corey went .298/.358/.440 with only on HR and only 10 runs. But this type of consistency got Corey more playing time and an every day starting job. He responded in June going .336/.421/.618. Wowsa! That's excellent. If you tack on the 10 SBs and 9 HRs, you got yourself a top-notch right fielder.
But a friend of mine, who lives and dies by numbers and everything Baseball Prospectus says, told me that you always revert to the mean, and this time he was right. Corey followed a ridiculous June by putting the finishing touches on a 22 game hit streak. Unfortunately the rest of the month wasn't too kind and he finished July with a .200/.261/.467 with no stolen bases. He fought this slump by playing good defense and returned to reasonable form in the Brewers treacherous August going .313/.337/.542. The OBP differential is pretty awful, but he made up for it in September going .295/.381/.641. I'd much rather the lower average and higher OBP and slugging because that's what leads to runs.
The sky is the limit with this kid. He's already set a goal of 30/30 this year and if he has more consistency with this power numbers, he's got a damn good shot. All I ask from him this year is improvement in the field; Not so much on his range or his footwork, but his throws. Maybe it's because he's a ridiculously tall guy and his mechanics look funky, but he seems to have a terribly slow release and doesn't put everything behind his throws to the plate. Since he's only been in the outfield for a couple of years, I don't doubt he'll find a way to improve.
Predictions: 287/.370/.490 with 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs and a bobblehead wearing sunglasses for good measure.
Left Field: Ryan Braun
It's kind of hard to criticize the 2007 Rookie of the Year, but when you have one of the worst defensive years in history, you leave yourself open for pot shots. Ryan only played in 113 games last year, but he still hit 34 HRs with 97 RBIs, amassing a .324 Avg and a .370 OBP, slugging a ridiculous .634. But he managed to commit 26 fielding errors in only 248 chances, not to mention the other terrible throws Fielder saved with his reflexes. It was this .895 Fielding Percentage that sent Braun away from the hot corner and into the defensive liability hole in left field.
So what can we expect from Ryan Braun this year? I think too much, so I'm going to go through his month by month numbers and see if we can get a better idea of what really to expect. Ryan was called up from AAA on May 25th (I'm angry I missed it. I was in Ireland though.) to play the Padres and he responded by going 1 for 4, hitting his first major league double and his first two major league RBIs. Unfortunately he finished the month going .222/.214/.370, which is ridiculous since it's pretty hard to have a negative differential, but if you don't walk, bad things happen.
June was the time for the turnaround. He opened the month going 3 for 3, scoring three runs while hitting a double and a homerun. But it got better, .382/.435/.716 better and Ryan Braun officially arrived in the majors. July brought more of the same as he went .345/.397/.673, but when the team cools off, so does everybody on in it. Ryan followed two of the best rookie months in baseball history by going .287/.330/.574. God forbid you hit average sir. I guess he realized that so he hit .308/.354/.644 in September.
So the numbers say this... He's good. In fact, he's really good, and nothing would indicate he's going to get worse, but you sophomore slumps are pretty common. If there's a drop in anything for Ryan, it's going to be found in his average. With Corey in the five spot, you might see him get pitched around a little bit more and he won't see the fatty fastballs he got for a good portion of last year. Pitchers will also know more about his tendencies and should adjust some. Regardless, the slugging will stay. He doesn't look all that big, but his mechanics must fit his body type perfect and it sends the ball a long way.
Predictions: .288/.370/.620 with 40 HRs, 119 RBIs and 27 SB (Did I forget to mention he's fast?)
Ryan needs to improve his SO/BB ratio, but as a power hitter you can live with it. If he works on his first step in the outfield, he'll be just fine. Let's hope people aren't dumb enough to call any drop in his numbers a result of the position switch.
Center Field: Mike Cameron
I've done a ridiculous amount of research on this guy since we first got him, and I'm a bit sick of discussing him, to be brutally honest. His numbers last year were pretty embarrassing, going .242/.328/.431 with 21 HRs and 78 RBIs, but 21 HRs in Petco County, I mean Petco Park, is pretty respectable. Career, Cameron has gone .251/.341/.445, which is exactly average, but what he brings is some Gold Glove leadership. If you refer to this post, you'll find out some of the intangibles behind Doug Melvin's signing. I just don't have the energy to go through all of that stuff again.
Predictions: .249/.347/.514 The slugging should go up at Miller Park and his OBP should be healthy even though he won't be protected in the 6 or 7 hole. Expect 20 HRs after the 25 game suspension and some serious range in center.
Strengths: Speed, range and power. You're looking at an outfield with a potential of over 100 HRs and SBs. You can't say that about 90% of the teams in the entire league.
Weaknesses: Experience and SOs. Each of these guys are going to strikeout more than 100 times this year and that's gonna take a toll. This will be Braun's first year in the outfield, an Corey's 4th (I think). Let's hope they can use their skill to keep things going.
Bench Players Tomorrow...
Before I get into it, the usual housekeeping I do every post reveals that the Brewers re-signed Chris Spurling, but thankfully to a minor league contract. The depth in the minors for pitching is a bit shaky and Spurling did quite a good job last year eating up innings when we needed him to. There's no room for him in the bigs and with the free agent market being as it is, I'm sure he's happy to go somewhere familiar to him, with the opportunity to get some innings when injuries come around.
Shortstop: JJ Hardy
JJ is coming off his first full season in majors as one of the big surprises for the Brewers, mostly because of his power numbers. I say this is JJ's first full season because it's the first time he's made it unscathed as far as injuries go. JJ finished the year going .277/.321/.429 with 26 HRs, 80 RBIs and about 60 baserunning mistakes, but I'll discuss that later.
As mentioned before, JJ's power numbers were phenomenal, for a shortstop anyways, but the problem lies in that huge .321 OBP. It's hideous, and if you take away the first two months of the season, you're looking at a .310 OBP, which Ned should realize is not what a 2-hitter hits. I'm one of the few people out there who think JJ's got a long way to go with his bat, especially his pitch selection. If he can recreate his OBP of the first two months, .350, then we're looking at probably the 1st or 2nd best infield in the NL.
Overall, I'm not worried about JJ's bat. It'll come around and he tends to hit very well in clutch situations, but I cannot stand watching JJ on the bases. He never looks comfortable and when he looks confident, he's misjudged something and gets busted up. BP did a study on baserunners and have marked him as one of the 10 worst baserunners in th league. I know that Yost "Threw out the rule book," in regards to baserunning last year, but JJ couldn't get from first to third if his life depended on it or if someone hit a triple. It's not a big part of his game, but it's another part that needs to improve.
Predictions: .270/.331/.400 JJ will figure out the OBP problem on a year by year basis, but you can't expect him to hit 26 HRs again this year. I'm looking at 18-20 and his RBIs will depend solely on where he gets placed in the lineup. Again, I don't like him in the two hole. I actually like Kendall (I get a lot of flack for that) because of his OBP and uncanny ability to hit every single ball on the ground like Jeff Cirillo. Hopefully Escobar gets his numbers up and JJ spends the next two years increasing his trade value because Weeks, Hart, Braun and Fielder are staying for the next 6 years. I like JJ as a person, but his ceiling is only a little above average.
Right Field: Corey Hart
"I wear my sunglasses at night..." Ah, that never gets old. I'm a Corey Hart fan, more so than I thought I would be when he first came into the league. It's become rather apparent that Corey is one of the most under-rated right-fielders in the league right now, considering he's only 25. Corey batted .295/.353/.539 last year, hitting for 24 HRs, 81 RBIs and swiping 20 bases becoming the first Brewer in two decades to go 20/20 in a season. Corey showed excellent patience at the plate, as shown by the 58 point differential between his Avg and OBP, but struck out a bit too much (99), but the key to his season was consistency.
The power was almost non-existent at the beginning of the year, but the team could live without his slugging. After the first two months of play, Corey went .298/.358/.440 with only on HR and only 10 runs. But this type of consistency got Corey more playing time and an every day starting job. He responded in June going .336/.421/.618. Wowsa! That's excellent. If you tack on the 10 SBs and 9 HRs, you got yourself a top-notch right fielder.
But a friend of mine, who lives and dies by numbers and everything Baseball Prospectus says, told me that you always revert to the mean, and this time he was right. Corey followed a ridiculous June by putting the finishing touches on a 22 game hit streak. Unfortunately the rest of the month wasn't too kind and he finished July with a .200/.261/.467 with no stolen bases. He fought this slump by playing good defense and returned to reasonable form in the Brewers treacherous August going .313/.337/.542. The OBP differential is pretty awful, but he made up for it in September going .295/.381/.641. I'd much rather the lower average and higher OBP and slugging because that's what leads to runs.
The sky is the limit with this kid. He's already set a goal of 30/30 this year and if he has more consistency with this power numbers, he's got a damn good shot. All I ask from him this year is improvement in the field; Not so much on his range or his footwork, but his throws. Maybe it's because he's a ridiculously tall guy and his mechanics look funky, but he seems to have a terribly slow release and doesn't put everything behind his throws to the plate. Since he's only been in the outfield for a couple of years, I don't doubt he'll find a way to improve.
Predictions: 287/.370/.490 with 31 HRs, 95 RBIs, 32 SBs and a bobblehead wearing sunglasses for good measure.
Left Field: Ryan Braun
It's kind of hard to criticize the 2007 Rookie of the Year, but when you have one of the worst defensive years in history, you leave yourself open for pot shots. Ryan only played in 113 games last year, but he still hit 34 HRs with 97 RBIs, amassing a .324 Avg and a .370 OBP, slugging a ridiculous .634. But he managed to commit 26 fielding errors in only 248 chances, not to mention the other terrible throws Fielder saved with his reflexes. It was this .895 Fielding Percentage that sent Braun away from the hot corner and into the defensive liability hole in left field.
So what can we expect from Ryan Braun this year? I think too much, so I'm going to go through his month by month numbers and see if we can get a better idea of what really to expect. Ryan was called up from AAA on May 25th (I'm angry I missed it. I was in Ireland though.) to play the Padres and he responded by going 1 for 4, hitting his first major league double and his first two major league RBIs. Unfortunately he finished the month going .222/.214/.370, which is ridiculous since it's pretty hard to have a negative differential, but if you don't walk, bad things happen.
June was the time for the turnaround. He opened the month going 3 for 3, scoring three runs while hitting a double and a homerun. But it got better, .382/.435/.716 better and Ryan Braun officially arrived in the majors. July brought more of the same as he went .345/.397/.673, but when the team cools off, so does everybody on in it. Ryan followed two of the best rookie months in baseball history by going .287/.330/.574. God forbid you hit average sir. I guess he realized that so he hit .308/.354/.644 in September.
So the numbers say this... He's good. In fact, he's really good, and nothing would indicate he's going to get worse, but you sophomore slumps are pretty common. If there's a drop in anything for Ryan, it's going to be found in his average. With Corey in the five spot, you might see him get pitched around a little bit more and he won't see the fatty fastballs he got for a good portion of last year. Pitchers will also know more about his tendencies and should adjust some. Regardless, the slugging will stay. He doesn't look all that big, but his mechanics must fit his body type perfect and it sends the ball a long way.
Predictions: .288/.370/.620 with 40 HRs, 119 RBIs and 27 SB (Did I forget to mention he's fast?)
Ryan needs to improve his SO/BB ratio, but as a power hitter you can live with it. If he works on his first step in the outfield, he'll be just fine. Let's hope people aren't dumb enough to call any drop in his numbers a result of the position switch.
Center Field: Mike Cameron
I've done a ridiculous amount of research on this guy since we first got him, and I'm a bit sick of discussing him, to be brutally honest. His numbers last year were pretty embarrassing, going .242/.328/.431 with 21 HRs and 78 RBIs, but 21 HRs in Petco County, I mean Petco Park, is pretty respectable. Career, Cameron has gone .251/.341/.445, which is exactly average, but what he brings is some Gold Glove leadership. If you refer to this post, you'll find out some of the intangibles behind Doug Melvin's signing. I just don't have the energy to go through all of that stuff again.
Predictions: .249/.347/.514 The slugging should go up at Miller Park and his OBP should be healthy even though he won't be protected in the 6 or 7 hole. Expect 20 HRs after the 25 game suspension and some serious range in center.
Strengths: Speed, range and power. You're looking at an outfield with a potential of over 100 HRs and SBs. You can't say that about 90% of the teams in the entire league.
Weaknesses: Experience and SOs. Each of these guys are going to strikeout more than 100 times this year and that's gonna take a toll. This will be Braun's first year in the outfield, an Corey's 4th (I think). Let's hope they can use their skill to keep things going.
Bench Players Tomorrow...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
'Little T' Tony Gwynn Jr.
Check out the most well-written and -researched baseball article I've read all winter.
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Who did Dave Bush pitch against last year
I want to take a solid look at Bush's numbers and see if I buy into all of this insane talk about Bush DESERVING his starting job. This takes priority over the position analysis. We'll go Date, Opposing Team, Opposing Pitcher (Career ERA), Bush's line, Game Result
APRIL
6th CHC Rich Hill (4.39) 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H 1 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 3 Cubs 9 Bush gives up a 6 run 1st
11th @FL Sergio Mitre (5.36) 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 5 Marlins 2 Crew scores first and take s 3-0 by the 6th
17th @CIN Matt Belisle (4.85) 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 11 Bush allows 3 over the first 2, leaves with tie
22nd HOU Roy Oswalt (3.07) 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K (W)
Crew 4 Astros 3 Bush pitched a gem, I was there. Gave up 3 in the 9th.
26th @HOU C. Sampson (4.05) 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 1 Astros 10 Bush gives up 4 in the 5th and 6th
One Quality Start in April: Pitches into the 7th once
2-3 with Bush as starter
MAY
3rd PIT Tom Gorzelanny (4.04) 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Pirates 4 Bush gives up 4 in the 7th while leading 2-0
8th WSH J. Simontacchi (5.09) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 4 Bush leaves up 4-3 in mid-7 after giving up 2 runs
14th @PHI Jamie Moyer (4.21) 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Philllies 8 Bush leaves with 70 pitches
19th MIN Scott Baker (4.71) 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 2 Twins 5 Bush pitches into the 8th, but gives up 5
25th @SD Greg Maddux (3.11) 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 6 Padres 8 Bush gives up 5 in the 5 and leaves down 7-0
30th ATL Tim Hudson (3.51) 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 6 K (ND)
Crew 5 Braves 9 Bush's gem gets tainted by 7 run 8th
Too many games left out of reach taints two quality starts
1-5 in May when Bush starts
JUNE
4th CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Cubs 7 Bush explodes in 7th, giving up 3 w/o an out
10th TEX V. Padilla (4.25) 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 9 Rangers 6 Bush gives up 2 in the first and leaves 2 on in 5th
16th MIN Boof Bonser (4.77) 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 5 Twins 2 Bush pitches well and gets yanked with one on
23rd KC Brian Bannister (3.95) 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 7 KC 1 Bush pitches gem against worst team in baseball
27th HOU Borkowski 2.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB (W)
Crew 6 Astros 3 Bush pitches 2 innings in relief in extra innings
There's your freebie win for the team lead.
Quality month even with few innings
Crew goes 4-1 with Bush, 3-1 with starts
JULY
1st CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K (L)
Crew 1 Cubs 5 Bush puts Crew behind 4-0 after 3
6th @WSH Mike Bacsik (5.46) 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 2 Pitches gem against another awful team
16th @ARI Micah Owings (4.30) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 K (W)
Crew 4 D'Backs 3 Bush gives up one early, but Crew answer w/ 3
21st SF Tim Lincecum (4.00) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 0 Giants 8 Gives up 3 in first 4, but Lincecum throws gem
26th @CIN B. Livingston (5.27) 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 6 Leaves down 4-3 leaving 1 on after giving up 2 in 5th
31st NYM Aaron Sele (4.61) 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K (W)
Crew 4 Mets 2 Bush gets another freebie after a walkoff by Jenks
An okay month, but nothing to call home about.
That's 2 relief wins... let's keep talking about how he leads this team
Crew goes 3-3 when Bush pitches, 2-3 when he starts.
AUGUST
4th PHI Cole Hamels (3.68) 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Phillies 5 Gordon blows save in 8th saving Bush a loss
10th @HOU J. Jennings (4.91) 6 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Astros 4 Bush gives up lead in the 5th and leaves with tie.
16th STL Adam Wainwright (3.61) 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 0 Cardinals 8 Bush pitches well, but Turnbow gives up 5 in 9th
21st @ARI L. Hernandez (4.25) 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 SO, (W)
Crew 7 D'Backs 4 Leaves with 2-2 tie. Crew scores 5 in 7th.
26th @SF T. Lincecum (4.00) 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 SO (ND)
Crew 4 Giants 5 Bush blows up in the 7th and is saved by Shouse leaving a tie
Another mediocre month, but fewer losses because of comebacks.
Crew goes 3-2 when Bush starts thanks to some heroics.
He can beat Arizona and Washington consistently 4-0, but not SF.
SEPTEMBER
1st PIT Shane Youman (5.13) 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 12 Pirates 3 Bush pitches gem, but is backed by an 8-1 lead in 3rd
7th @CIN Bronson Arroyo (4.22) 1.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 K (L)
Crew 4 Reds 11 Bush gives up 6 in first and 2 in second
12th @PIT T. Gorzelanny (4.04) 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K (ND)
Crew 4 Pirates 7 Bush taxes the bullpen again leaving down 4-1
19th @ HOU Juan Gutierrez (5.91) 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Astros 5 Bush pitches well, but gets no support. Lose in 10.
24th STL A. Wainwright (3.61) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 13 Cardinals 5 Bush gives up 5, but starts with a 4-0 and 9-2 lead
29th SD Chris Young (3.68) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Padres 3 Bush is outpitched by Young, but Hoffman blows save
An inconsistent month to say the least, with tough luck and good luck
Crew goes 3-3 with him on the mound, but the long term effects of pitching 1, 4 and 6 innings caught this bullpen at a real bad time.
Okay, let's look at the totals.
Record when Bush starts: 14-17
When Bush pitches: 16-17
Average ERA of opposing starter: 4.49
Bush's W/L against above .500: 3-4
Team's W/L against above .500: 5-6
Bush's W/L against below .500: 9-6
Team's W/L against below .500: 11-11
Quality Starts: 14/31 (45%)
Innings pitched/Start: 6.00 IP/Start
Hits/Start: 6.93 Hits/Start
Walks and Hits per Nine: 8.37
Someone please tell me how this makes him a shoe in. I'm clearly pretty adamant about this being the wrong thing to do, and it'll take some hard evidence and me turning down the stubborness to open my eyes to this guy as legit.
APRIL
6th CHC Rich Hill (4.39) 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H 1 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 3 Cubs 9 Bush gives up a 6 run 1st
11th @FL Sergio Mitre (5.36) 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 5 Marlins 2 Crew scores first and take s 3-0 by the 6th
17th @CIN Matt Belisle (4.85) 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 11 Bush allows 3 over the first 2, leaves with tie
22nd HOU Roy Oswalt (3.07) 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K (W)
Crew 4 Astros 3 Bush pitched a gem, I was there. Gave up 3 in the 9th.
26th @HOU C. Sampson (4.05) 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 1 Astros 10 Bush gives up 4 in the 5th and 6th
One Quality Start in April: Pitches into the 7th once
2-3 with Bush as starter
MAY
3rd PIT Tom Gorzelanny (4.04) 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Pirates 4 Bush gives up 4 in the 7th while leading 2-0
8th WSH J. Simontacchi (5.09) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 4 Bush leaves up 4-3 in mid-7 after giving up 2 runs
14th @PHI Jamie Moyer (4.21) 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Philllies 8 Bush leaves with 70 pitches
19th MIN Scott Baker (4.71) 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 2 Twins 5 Bush pitches into the 8th, but gives up 5
25th @SD Greg Maddux (3.11) 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 6 Padres 8 Bush gives up 5 in the 5 and leaves down 7-0
30th ATL Tim Hudson (3.51) 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 6 K (ND)
Crew 5 Braves 9 Bush's gem gets tainted by 7 run 8th
Too many games left out of reach taints two quality starts
1-5 in May when Bush starts
JUNE
4th CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Cubs 7 Bush explodes in 7th, giving up 3 w/o an out
10th TEX V. Padilla (4.25) 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 9 Rangers 6 Bush gives up 2 in the first and leaves 2 on in 5th
16th MIN Boof Bonser (4.77) 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 5 Twins 2 Bush pitches well and gets yanked with one on
23rd KC Brian Bannister (3.95) 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 7 KC 1 Bush pitches gem against worst team in baseball
27th HOU Borkowski 2.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB (W)
Crew 6 Astros 3 Bush pitches 2 innings in relief in extra innings
There's your freebie win for the team lead.
Quality month even with few innings
Crew goes 4-1 with Bush, 3-1 with starts
JULY
1st CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K (L)
Crew 1 Cubs 5 Bush puts Crew behind 4-0 after 3
6th @WSH Mike Bacsik (5.46) 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 2 Pitches gem against another awful team
16th @ARI Micah Owings (4.30) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 K (W)
Crew 4 D'Backs 3 Bush gives up one early, but Crew answer w/ 3
21st SF Tim Lincecum (4.00) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 0 Giants 8 Gives up 3 in first 4, but Lincecum throws gem
26th @CIN B. Livingston (5.27) 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 6 Leaves down 4-3 leaving 1 on after giving up 2 in 5th
31st NYM Aaron Sele (4.61) 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K (W)
Crew 4 Mets 2 Bush gets another freebie after a walkoff by Jenks
An okay month, but nothing to call home about.
That's 2 relief wins... let's keep talking about how he leads this team
Crew goes 3-3 when Bush pitches, 2-3 when he starts.
AUGUST
4th PHI Cole Hamels (3.68) 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Phillies 5 Gordon blows save in 8th saving Bush a loss
10th @HOU J. Jennings (4.91) 6 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Astros 4 Bush gives up lead in the 5th and leaves with tie.
16th STL Adam Wainwright (3.61) 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 0 Cardinals 8 Bush pitches well, but Turnbow gives up 5 in 9th
21st @ARI L. Hernandez (4.25) 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 SO, (W)
Crew 7 D'Backs 4 Leaves with 2-2 tie. Crew scores 5 in 7th.
26th @SF T. Lincecum (4.00) 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 SO (ND)
Crew 4 Giants 5 Bush blows up in the 7th and is saved by Shouse leaving a tie
Another mediocre month, but fewer losses because of comebacks.
Crew goes 3-2 when Bush starts thanks to some heroics.
He can beat Arizona and Washington consistently 4-0, but not SF.
SEPTEMBER
1st PIT Shane Youman (5.13) 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 12 Pirates 3 Bush pitches gem, but is backed by an 8-1 lead in 3rd
7th @CIN Bronson Arroyo (4.22) 1.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 K (L)
Crew 4 Reds 11 Bush gives up 6 in first and 2 in second
12th @PIT T. Gorzelanny (4.04) 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K (ND)
Crew 4 Pirates 7 Bush taxes the bullpen again leaving down 4-1
19th @ HOU Juan Gutierrez (5.91) 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Astros 5 Bush pitches well, but gets no support. Lose in 10.
24th STL A. Wainwright (3.61) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 13 Cardinals 5 Bush gives up 5, but starts with a 4-0 and 9-2 lead
29th SD Chris Young (3.68) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Padres 3 Bush is outpitched by Young, but Hoffman blows save
An inconsistent month to say the least, with tough luck and good luck
Crew goes 3-3 with him on the mound, but the long term effects of pitching 1, 4 and 6 innings caught this bullpen at a real bad time.
Okay, let's look at the totals.
Record when Bush starts: 14-17
When Bush pitches: 16-17
Average ERA of opposing starter: 4.49
Bush's W/L against above .500: 3-4
Team's W/L against above .500: 5-6
Bush's W/L against below .500: 9-6
Team's W/L against below .500: 11-11
Quality Starts: 14/31 (45%)
Innings pitched/Start: 6.00 IP/Start
Hits/Start: 6.93 Hits/Start
Walks and Hits per Nine: 8.37
Someone please tell me how this makes him a shoe in. I'm clearly pretty adamant about this being the wrong thing to do, and it'll take some hard evidence and me turning down the stubborness to open my eyes to this guy as legit.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Position Analysis: Second and Third Base
I guess I haven't stuck my schedule all that well, but I'll make up for it today by taking on two positions in one post. Before that, a little housekeeping. A few days ago Dave Bush agreed to a one year contract worth 2.55 million, below the median that existed between the the Brewers and Bush's agent. But then Doug Melvin said, "I think he'd have to pitch awful [in Spring Training] to not be a part of the rotation. Take a look at Dave Bush vs. Joe Blanton's numbers over their career. Blanton has the wins and the ERA was better last year, but overall they're not far off." Are you kidding me?! That is the biggest load of BS that has ever come out Doug Melvin's mouth. Since when do wins represent how well a pitcher did. Joe Blanton pitched 230 innings last year with a 3.95 ERA and a 14-10 record with a WHIP of 1.22. How does that compare to Bush's 5.12 ERA, a 12-10 record in 186 IP with a WHIP of 1.40. That is absolutely absurd. If he gets the spot because Melvin and Yost have a soft spot for him, these team will never be a consistent ball-club.
On top of that, Melvin and Attanasio agreed to exercise Yost's option for 2009, and rightfully so, I guess. I'm not a Yost fan, but I get that this is a business, and we don't need that stupid job security bit to distract this young team. On to today's position analysis:
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Every analyst across the board expects big things from the Brewers' second baseman, and I'm no exception. However, I was on that bus last year after watching Weeks' improvement throughout his rookie season, and I don't think I ever got off. Rickie Darnell Weeks was drafted out of Southern University after being named Baseball America's Player of the Year and exploded through the Brewers' system arriving in Milwaukee in 2005. Unfortunately, Rickie made it to Milwaukee with his bat and not his glove, and it showed as he committed 43 errors in 187 innings in 2005 and 2006.
2007 was a turnaround year though, for his bat and more importantly his glove. While most people remember Weeks' trials and tribulations last year, I remember two very important things: A high OBP and extreme improvement on the defensive end of the game. Rickie started out the 2007 pretty average batting .237/.348/.329 over the first two months. The OBP and BA are right on, but the slugging is absolutely atrocious, especially for the speed Rickie has. His excuse, "I'm just not playing well,"; the real reason: a banged up wrist that hurt his bat speed and his confidence and put him on the pine for a couple of weeks. Upon his return, he was worse, batting .125/.279/.143 in July, and heads rolled. Weeks was sent to AAA-Nashville for a wake up call and returned 10 days later, hitting what I expected him to do. He finished August batting .327/.500/.519. If you get on base 50% of the time, you're more than successful, you're a stud. The average dipped to .245 in September, but an OBP and Slg of .409 and .571 places him in the upper echelon of 2nd Baseman in the league.
Rickie Weeks is this team's 2nd Baseman and leadoff hitter, and that's because he can do everything for this team. He can get on base in every way possible whether it be infield hits or shooting the ball to either gap. And when he's on base, he can steal a base and move from 1st to 3rd better than anybody else on the team. Additionally, he has built chemistry on the field with shortstop JJ Hardy. I expect some fantastic and athletic plays from this duo as the they progress even more as ballplayers, but most importantly, I expect fewer errors, which will yield more wins for this team.
Predictions: The hype about Rickie is real. If he's healthy, he should have his power back, and his OBP can only go up as he learns NL pitching. If he limits his strikeouts to under 120, look for him to have a ridiculous year.
.275/.391/.480 with 22 HRs, 68RBIs, 24 SBs and let's hope 12 errors and a healthy year.
Third Base: Bill Hall
I've discussed Bill Hall quite a bit this off-season, specifically discussing why he had such a poor year in 2007, going .254/.315/.425. If you want to see what I had to say about the Bill Hall move check out this link, but to avoid excuses and other unnecessary analysis, let's look more into his numbers.
Hall started off pretty sluggish last year batting .257/.314/.404 over the first two months of the season, hitting only 6 HRs during that time. And it really only got better than that for one or two months out of the season. In June he was able to bounce back and hit .307/.388/.523, a good sign of power and OBP, but it didn't stick and those numbers plummeted over the last two months, finishing the year with months of .185/.230/.370 and .255/.302/.400. It's surprising to think he never saw the pine for very long.
There's a lot less pressure on Hall this year, and expecting average on-base and slugging numbers is reasonable. If he keeps the OBP above .340 and the slugging at .450, we may find ourselves in a pretty good fight this year with Billy in the 7 hole.
Predictions: .265/.333/.440 with 16HRs and 70 RBIs. Not Hank Blalock, but reasonable enough.
On top of that, Melvin and Attanasio agreed to exercise Yost's option for 2009, and rightfully so, I guess. I'm not a Yost fan, but I get that this is a business, and we don't need that stupid job security bit to distract this young team. On to today's position analysis:
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Every analyst across the board expects big things from the Brewers' second baseman, and I'm no exception. However, I was on that bus last year after watching Weeks' improvement throughout his rookie season, and I don't think I ever got off. Rickie Darnell Weeks was drafted out of Southern University after being named Baseball America's Player of the Year and exploded through the Brewers' system arriving in Milwaukee in 2005. Unfortunately, Rickie made it to Milwaukee with his bat and not his glove, and it showed as he committed 43 errors in 187 innings in 2005 and 2006.
2007 was a turnaround year though, for his bat and more importantly his glove. While most people remember Weeks' trials and tribulations last year, I remember two very important things: A high OBP and extreme improvement on the defensive end of the game. Rickie started out the 2007 pretty average batting .237/.348/.329 over the first two months. The OBP and BA are right on, but the slugging is absolutely atrocious, especially for the speed Rickie has. His excuse, "I'm just not playing well,"; the real reason: a banged up wrist that hurt his bat speed and his confidence and put him on the pine for a couple of weeks. Upon his return, he was worse, batting .125/.279/.143 in July, and heads rolled. Weeks was sent to AAA-Nashville for a wake up call and returned 10 days later, hitting what I expected him to do. He finished August batting .327/.500/.519. If you get on base 50% of the time, you're more than successful, you're a stud. The average dipped to .245 in September, but an OBP and Slg of .409 and .571 places him in the upper echelon of 2nd Baseman in the league.
Rickie Weeks is this team's 2nd Baseman and leadoff hitter, and that's because he can do everything for this team. He can get on base in every way possible whether it be infield hits or shooting the ball to either gap. And when he's on base, he can steal a base and move from 1st to 3rd better than anybody else on the team. Additionally, he has built chemistry on the field with shortstop JJ Hardy. I expect some fantastic and athletic plays from this duo as the they progress even more as ballplayers, but most importantly, I expect fewer errors, which will yield more wins for this team.
Predictions: The hype about Rickie is real. If he's healthy, he should have his power back, and his OBP can only go up as he learns NL pitching. If he limits his strikeouts to under 120, look for him to have a ridiculous year.
.275/.391/.480 with 22 HRs, 68RBIs, 24 SBs and let's hope 12 errors and a healthy year.
Third Base: Bill Hall
I've discussed Bill Hall quite a bit this off-season, specifically discussing why he had such a poor year in 2007, going .254/.315/.425. If you want to see what I had to say about the Bill Hall move check out this link, but to avoid excuses and other unnecessary analysis, let's look more into his numbers.
Hall started off pretty sluggish last year batting .257/.314/.404 over the first two months of the season, hitting only 6 HRs during that time. And it really only got better than that for one or two months out of the season. In June he was able to bounce back and hit .307/.388/.523, a good sign of power and OBP, but it didn't stick and those numbers plummeted over the last two months, finishing the year with months of .185/.230/.370 and .255/.302/.400. It's surprising to think he never saw the pine for very long.
There's a lot less pressure on Hall this year, and expecting average on-base and slugging numbers is reasonable. If he keeps the OBP above .340 and the slugging at .450, we may find ourselves in a pretty good fight this year with Billy in the 7 hole.
Predictions: .265/.333/.440 with 16HRs and 70 RBIs. Not Hank Blalock, but reasonable enough.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Position Analysis: First Base
Maybe I was drunk last night. After reading my most recent post on back-up catchers, I realized that I said absolutely nothing profound, and when I did, the grammar was wrong, so here's a quick recap. Vinny Rottino may or may not be the best option as the backup catcher. He needs more experience behind the plate and with the bat, however, time with Jason Kendall could be extremely beneficial and his offensive ceiling is clearly higher than the other two candidates. That being said, the role of the back up catcher in baseball is a valued commodity; more so than one might think. His job is to cater to the bullpen early in games and help guys learn new pitches or understand batters better. This is why guys like Mike Rivera and Eric Munson have jobs. They're essentially equals. So do you go for the higher ceiling or the necessary leadership? I'd go with the higher ceiling and OBP. We have a veteran bullpen right now with Bill Castro garnering some serious managing points.
Now on to First Base
King Fielder
He's no Prince. Let's be honest here. He is officially the King of this Brewers franchise and will be for quite some time. I'm adamant about this guy getting his big contract because he gets fans in the seats. He's intense, plays the game with passion and loves to crack jokes, but most of all he's a leader. Some would say he's a quiet leader, but I doubt that greatly. Just ask Matt Capps from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The most important part for Brewers fans though is Prince loves Milwaukee. He and Rickie praise and embrace this city, and it shows.
Eric Gagne recognized the Brewers were contenders last year when they came through with their first winning season in over a decade, but he heard from his agent something else. Scott Boras is Prince Fielder's agent, and while that makes us tremble a bit, we know Boras tells his clients about other situations. Fielder has raved about this franchise and the free agent market has heard it and heard it loud, with Gagne, Kendall and others like Kenny Lofton looking at the team more closely. Doug Melvin laid the groundwork and Fielder's ambition is slowly building it up floor after floor.
As the unchallenged leader on this team last year, Prince batted a whopping .288/.395/.618 up from .271/.347/.483 in 2006. That's without mentioning the 50 HRs and 119 RBIs compared to 28 and 81 the year before. Don't expect much improvement. Those are some ridiculous slugging numbers with an OPS of 1.013, and while I expect the OPS to stay the same, I expect lower slugging and a higher OBP, perhaps a higher batting average as well. Hitting in the three hole should benefit him greatly. He should attract more walks and additional fastballs to prevent Braun from hitting with runners on base.
An exceptional eye last year led to 90 walks, which is great, but with his quick wrists and newly acquired knowledge of NL pitchers, Prince should easily surpass this number and continue to impress analysts. However, Fielder must lower his SO total, which was 125/121 his last two years. The 121 is actually a relatively reasonable improvement considering he received 35 more plate appearances last year. Nevertheless, improvement here will be an achievement fully recognized by the team.
The key for Prince, however, is keeping his weight down, which he's been doing extremely well. It helps his range greatly on the defensive end and allows for a much a smoother and balanced swing. He lost something like 20 pounds before Spring Training last year, and I expect him to be at that same weight again this year, which still makes him perfectly capable of bowling over catchers, who seem to fear him as he runs down the line (can't understand why). The weight is in his genes and he's going to fight it over the years, but he WILL surpass his father in every category, the most prideful will be his ability to play in the NL for most of his career as a quality first baseman.
Predictions: .298/.409/.599 with 47 HRs and 136 RBIs
How about a round on the King?
Now on to First Base
King Fielder
He's no Prince. Let's be honest here. He is officially the King of this Brewers franchise and will be for quite some time. I'm adamant about this guy getting his big contract because he gets fans in the seats. He's intense, plays the game with passion and loves to crack jokes, but most of all he's a leader. Some would say he's a quiet leader, but I doubt that greatly. Just ask Matt Capps from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The most important part for Brewers fans though is Prince loves Milwaukee. He and Rickie praise and embrace this city, and it shows.
Eric Gagne recognized the Brewers were contenders last year when they came through with their first winning season in over a decade, but he heard from his agent something else. Scott Boras is Prince Fielder's agent, and while that makes us tremble a bit, we know Boras tells his clients about other situations. Fielder has raved about this franchise and the free agent market has heard it and heard it loud, with Gagne, Kendall and others like Kenny Lofton looking at the team more closely. Doug Melvin laid the groundwork and Fielder's ambition is slowly building it up floor after floor.
As the unchallenged leader on this team last year, Prince batted a whopping .288/.395/.618 up from .271/.347/.483 in 2006. That's without mentioning the 50 HRs and 119 RBIs compared to 28 and 81 the year before. Don't expect much improvement. Those are some ridiculous slugging numbers with an OPS of 1.013, and while I expect the OPS to stay the same, I expect lower slugging and a higher OBP, perhaps a higher batting average as well. Hitting in the three hole should benefit him greatly. He should attract more walks and additional fastballs to prevent Braun from hitting with runners on base.
An exceptional eye last year led to 90 walks, which is great, but with his quick wrists and newly acquired knowledge of NL pitchers, Prince should easily surpass this number and continue to impress analysts. However, Fielder must lower his SO total, which was 125/121 his last two years. The 121 is actually a relatively reasonable improvement considering he received 35 more plate appearances last year. Nevertheless, improvement here will be an achievement fully recognized by the team.
The key for Prince, however, is keeping his weight down, which he's been doing extremely well. It helps his range greatly on the defensive end and allows for a much a smoother and balanced swing. He lost something like 20 pounds before Spring Training last year, and I expect him to be at that same weight again this year, which still makes him perfectly capable of bowling over catchers, who seem to fear him as he runs down the line (can't understand why). The weight is in his genes and he's going to fight it over the years, but he WILL surpass his father in every category, the most prideful will be his ability to play in the NL for most of his career as a quality first baseman.
Predictions: .298/.409/.599 with 47 HRs and 136 RBIs
How about a round on the King?
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Position Analysis: Catchers
A blizzard of epic proportions has flashed through Milwaukee and it's amplified my desire for baseball season to begin so much more. I couldn't be more sick of shoveling and with only 10 days left before pitchers and catchers report, the excitement can only grow. With that being said, today's post will only reflect on the backup catcher spot. If anyone is interested in what Jason Kendall has to offer, you can refer to this post, and comment there. I'm okay with the signing, not thrilled, but he has the potential to make us very proud, even though we haven't seen a free agent flourish here in some time. On with the show:
Minor League Vet: Mike Rivera
Puerto Rican born Mike Rivera is a 31 year-old Minor League vet who has been in major league system since 1997 when he was signed in 1997. In 10 years he has yet to play an entire season at the major league level, the closest being 46 games with the Brewers in 2006. During that year he was able to surprise fans and scouts by hitting .268/.325/.458, but that didn't help him obtain a roster spot the following year because of the arrival of Johnny Estrada.
The demotion hurt him some as he only batted .215/.270/.421 in Nashville, before returning to Milwaukee during the September call up. Overall, Rivera is a career .239 hitter with an OBP of .285, which is nothing to be proud of, but Rivera is a straight defensive catcher, though his numbers were atrocious in 2006, who has handled our minor league pitchers phenomenally, while helping groom Vinny Rottino for the Majors.
Ultimately, he offers us pretty much nothing, but we'll soon find out that, the remaining candidates don't either.
The Over-rated: Eric Munson
Eric Munson is a 30 year-old left-handed hitting catcher from San Diego California, who has been in and out of the big leagues since 2000, who started in Detroit just like Mike Rivera. He has only had two memorable season, which most people who have heard his name tend to hang on to. In 2003 and 2004, batted only .240 and .212, but he hit 18 and 19 HRs in those years. Sad thing is, his numbers are still awful. Career, Munson has hit .214/.289/.394.
People want to claim that his left-handed bat off the bench makes him a shoe in for the back up spot, but he hits righties worse that Rivera, making the lefty bat a non-issue. As for his throwing arm, it compares to Rivera's and therefore there isn't much of a difference between the two, except Rivera has put more time in with this team.
The Wild Card: Vinny Rottino
I think we all like this kid. If anything, he reminds me of the blue-collar hard working journeymen that made up this Brewers team in the early 80s. He's selfless, scrappy and does all the things you want a baseball player to do and yet, BP doesn't even mention his name in the Brewers Top 11 Prospects this year and Baseball America fails to mention him in their Top 30. Something is fishy and he may surprise some people this camp.
Rottino has reasonable numbers in AAA, which are significantly better than both Munson and Rivera. In 2005 and 2006 Vinny hit .314/.379/.440 and .289/.363/.446 which is damn good. Especially the pitch taking ability, though he has been unable to show that ability in his 24 PA on the big league squad, walking only once. I can't find his fielding numbers at this time.
He's a risk, but he brings some serious versatility, being able to play OF, C and the corner infield positions. I hope he gets a serious look, and if he gets the spot, you can say goodbye to Mike Rivera. We can't get lucky two years in a row on the waiver wire (JD Closser and Mike Rivera cleared last year).
Who's the Answer?
Honestly, the answer isn't all that apparent. You have a higher ceiling with Vinny Rottino, but his pitch calling ability will be in question especially at the major league level. But Jason Kendall could turn this kid into a quality player with his wisdom. The counter argument is simple; your backup catcher's job is to handle your bullpen, to help guys learn the game better and veteran catcher's get you through this better than young guys who don't always get their respect. This is where Munson or Rivera have their chance. Another season in AAA will do Vinny some good and will open the door for more opportunities as the main guy down there. It may make him trade bait.
Spring Training will make a difference. If I had my way, I'd give the 27 year old kid the nod, but I doubt its occurrence. I think Mike Rivera will get the nod unless Yost is so dumb that he thinks Munson's left-handed bat will be beneficial.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Position Analysis: Relief Pitching
I need an editor. It takes me a long time to put these things together in the morning at and after work. When I'm finally done with the research, I find myself inept to editing my own work. In fact, it takes a day or two to add a word I forgot, or re-write a sentence where I was writing something while thinking of two other things, resulting in a broken and misleading sentence. I guess I'll get around to touching up some of this stuff. On to the bullpen.
Long Relief: Dave Bush
I know a lot of people don't agree with me on this, but Cappy is not a reliever and Bush played most of his college career at the back end of the Wake Forest bullpen, saving games in tight spots. Each only have four major league relief appearances, and Bush is the clear front runner for filling that void most effectively. He's got a rubber arm that can go 2-3 innings every other day or an inning for a few days straight. I'm not a Dave Bush fan, but this role suits him and is exactly where he belongs on this major league roster; that is a long relief role and spot starts during injury problems.
Predictions: 52 games, 5-7 record with a 4.90 ERA
Right Handed Relief: Guillermo Mota
Good Lord! Get off the sauce sir! Gui is a 34 year old right handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic who was once a dominating force in the major leagues during the early 2000's. A former shortstop in the Mets organization, Mota was claimed in the Rule 5 Draft by the then Montreal Expos and turned into a solid reliever, who took a few years to hone his craft. It was at this time that he moved to the Dodgers where he found great success, pitching 4.15, 1.97 and 2.14 ERAs from 2002-2004 as the set up man for Eric Gagne.
Mota has an A++ fastball at 98 MPH, but BP says it doesn't move and is the only pitch he's able to control. Nobody seems to be impressed with this guy, specifically because he's injury prone carrying shoulder and elbow problems. He pitched in only 34, 18 and 52 games the last three seasons and his numbers were only reasonable in '06 when he went 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. But this is surrounded by an ERA of about 6 for the years surrounding it including a 50 game suspension to the start the year for drug violations.
Predictions: 47 Appearances with a 2-4 record and a 5.12 ERA
Work Horse: Solomon Torres
Torres is getting up there in age, 36, but if there's one thing he's known for its pitching a lot of innings. Excluding last year in which he spent some time on the DL, Torres pitched 121, 92, 94, and 93 innings starting in 2002 posting a 4.76, 2.64, 2.76, and 3.28 ERA respectively. Torres was a highly sought after prospect at one time but faltered majorly in his early years, only to be reborn. Torres hung up his MLB tights in 1997 and played some semi-pro leagues and then in Korea in 2001 before returning to the Pirates in 2002 and become one of the better set-up men in the NL.
Scouting on Torres says that he doesn't have the movement on his ball that he used to, but relies on a change of speeds and locations to keep hitters on their toes. It sounds like a Matt Wise with a slider, and I'm okay with that. The Brewers should limit his innings with a guy who has seem so much action. This should save him some shoulder troubles and the bullpen appears to be quite versatile.
Predictions: 65 Appearances with a 6-2 record and 3.88 ERA
Potential Surprise: David Riske
The Brewers obtained David Riske on the unrestricted free agent market after one year in Kansas City. What people fail to remember is that Riske spent the first six years of his career with Cleveland Indians, wowing fans for 4 of those years with ERAs of 1.98, 2.29, 3.72, and 3.10 in 27, 74, 77, and 72 innings respectively. From there he split one year with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, pitching quite well along the way, amassing a 3.88 ERA in 41 appearances.
The following year he signed a one year deal with the Kansas City Royals. He finished the year with a 2.45 ERA in 69.2 innings while striking out 52 batters. After a rough April where he pitched himself into a 6.97 ERA, he returned flawlessly starting in May and moving into June. In 18 appearances he gave up only 9 hits and zero runs in 15.1 innings before giving up a run in Philly on June 8th. He continued to finish strong, ending June with a 1.42 ERA, July with a 1.46, August with a 3.09 and September with a 2.89.
Now that's some quality numbers and I expect it to stay exactly the same. I think Riske is one of those guys that just knows how to pitch. BP tends to disagree with me because his SO rate is on the decline and HR numbers are on the rise, but they have yet to comment on his 2007 season, which I imagine will have them shut their mouths a bit. When's the last time the Brewers had a forkball pitcher anyways?
Lefty Specialist?: Brian Shouse
Brian surprised a lot of people last year, making everyone call Mike Maddux a career resurrector again. In 2007 Shouse appeared in 73! games (can you say side arm?) going 1-1 with a 3.02 ERA. He started the year out as a left handed batter specialist only too find a way to get the right handed batters out to, though his ERA versus lefties was significantly lower: 1.90 to 4.13. Shouse did his job and did it well.
Brian was pretty much the only bullpen guy getting the job done last August, pitching a 3.09 ERA and a flawless July to preceded it. If he can "stay low" as he said he needs to do to keep the ball at an awkward plain, expect similar numbers this year, but likely a bit of a drop off unless Yost sticks to the lefty. Perhaps you may see better numbers.
Predictions: 74 appearances and 2-1 record with a 3.50 ERA
Fire and Walks: Derrick Turnbow
I feel bad. I get nervous every time DT walks to the mound. It's just scary. There's no grey area with Derrick. It's either flourish or flounder and that usually starts with the first batter. If he walks a guy on four pitches... Look out! Yost didn't really figure that out last year. Hopefully that leash will be a little shorter this year.
After losing his closing role to Francisco Cordero in 2006, Turnbow was poised to be the 8th inning set-up guy in '07 and started out phenomenally. CoCoBow was the best 2-inning finish to a game in the league for a while, but then things started falling. Turnbow was solid in his first 16 appearances going 15 innings with a 1.76 ERA, but a 7.84 ERA in May took him down a notch. He returned quite well in June with a 1.93 ERA, but fell off again in July with a 6.10 ERA, mostly due to a 4 run 1 out affair at St. Louis. But then a 2.92 in August, where he only had one appearance in which he gave up a run, even though it was 4 runs.
September was when the fans booed. DT gave up 9 runs in 12 appearances and 8.2 innings. But then people neglect the fact that he he pitched 7.1 scoreless innings during that time. Look guys, he's inconsistent and we know that. When you have crazy mechanics like DT does, you're going to have bad outings, until you fix them. The thing that has to be done is, Mike Maddux needs to see the problem, go out there and fix it or just yank the guy. He has A++ stuff when it's on target. There's nobody in the league who can hit the slider if he can paint the corner with it. Especially if he put a 99 MPH fastball on the other corner before you throw it.
Get off his back. Stop booing, and just be quiet. This isn't New York for crying out loud, where if you don't hit the game winning homer, you're useless. A 4.63 ERA looks bad, but is blemished by 3 or 4 really bad outings. Cut him some slack.
Predictions: 58 Appearances with a 4-6 record and 4.01 ERA
The Closer: Eric Gagne
Hit or miss. That's all I can say. I would be lying if I said I'm super excited about this signing. I was initially just because of namesake, and then I really thought about it. You can't complain about getting a guy who has the consecutive saves record (84), but you can worry. Gagne has been injury prone ever since his 2005 season and has only pitched in 70 games over the last 3 years, 54 of which came last year. The problem: a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow in 2005, which required surgery and a herniated disc in his back in 2006.
But there's hope. Before jumping to Boston, Gagne threw 33 innings for a 2.16 ERA, 16 saves and 29 Ks. The set-up role in Boston, or perhaps the city, or perhaps this back didn't do him any good. He played in 20 games and threw for a 6.75 ERA with 22 Ks in 19 innings. I think he can still do it, but worry and keep worrying until the end of May. If his ERA is below 3.50, beware. He's back and then we'll have to pay him his money.
Predictions: 62 games with 42 saves in 50 chances and a 2.99 ERA
The Weaknesses
This team is right hand heavy in the bullpen and in the rotation, which leads to a couple of things. 1) The potential for moves during the season to get a lefty. 2) Fewer opportunities for Yost to try and play the brain game and changing pitchers like he's Tony LaRussa. 3) More opportunities for Yost to leave his ailing pitcher on the mound for too long, which has always been his biggest problem.
The Strengths
Power. Lots and lots of power. But they have to be used properly. Start with Riske, then put in Turnbow. Or start with Shouse and then throw Mota. Force these guys to adjust constantly. Don't let them see Mota and Turnbow back to back ever. That gives these guys a shot to adjust to the fastball and and maybe sit on that slider.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Position Analysis: Starting Pitching
Today marks Day 2 of my position analysis leading up to Spring Training. The more I think about it, the more I like doing this column, especially the position analysis. I'm already amped up about baseball season and with football officially ending, one can't be looking forward to anything else this time of year except for March Madness (GO RED!). And if you're an NBA fan, God bless you for having no life (I'm a Bucks fan, I have a right to be bitter). Well on with the show!
The Ace: Ben Sheets
Ben Sheets is coming off yet another disappointing year even though he tied for the team lead with 12 wins. The numbers look great, 12-4 with a 3.82 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP with a trip to the All-Star game and a Pitcher of the Month Award in June. That sounds great! Why should anyone complain? How about only 141 innings pitched? The Brewers looked like beasts on Opening Day when Sheets pitched a complete-game 2-hit 7-1 victory over the LA Dodgers. And that continued for that entire month, but something wasn't right and it never really had time to get better.
The first thing people noticed about Sheets year was that his SO total was down significantly from years past. The curveball didn't have the bite it used to and he couldn't locate it. The upside was the emergence of his changeup which soon crept it's way into his game more and more. This resulted in a still very respectable 106/37 strikeout to walk ratio. But it happened, just like it has for the last three expensive contract years: the injury bug.
It's pretty annoying that it's happened to Sheets every year. Injuries always plague a team, and I can't blame Sheets that much. When you throw overhand curves like he and Wood do, you're risking a lot. At the end of April, Sheets left after 3 innings in Chicago because of a groin strain. He hung on for a while after that, but wasn't as dominating as he always has been before July 14th when he "sprained" his right middle finger and could no longer put proper pressure on the ball. That sprain turned out to be a partial tear of the tissue surrounding the tendon. He was lost until the end of August, at which time the Brewers fell apart, even with the valiant attempts of rookies Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra pitching well. Upon his return he went 2-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts, the last one in Houston only lasted an inning.
Consistency, where is the consistency? Prior to his contract season, Ben Sheets pitched 216, 220 and 237 innings for the Brewers and was essentially injury free. Funny thing is, he was always below .500 because of the team he was on. In 2004 he pitched 5 complete games! People say conditioning has been his problem, but there's no way. It's his style of pitching that is catching up to him and maybe he needs to find something to handle the wear and tear on his body. Something obviously changed this year because at the beginning of games this year, Sheets was immediately throwing 96-97, whereas in years past, that usually took and inning or two. I think progress is being made, but if he has to skip a start somewhere in there because something minor is bothering him, please give it to him!
Sheets is the ace of this staff and he's in a contract year. I'll be sad to see him have an amazing year and then bail on a team that's given him plenty of money for what really has been poor service on his part. Ben might be a loyal guy though, and he shouldn't be asking for too much more money. If he pitches 200 innings again, give him a 2 or three year contract. Cameron's cash will be available and Gwynn should be primed as a starter.
Prediciton: 30 starts, 16-8 record with a 3.92 ERA over 195.2 IP
(Don't ask me where I get these. I'm taking a shot in the dark based on the his past and the present state of the team)
The Number Two: Jeff Suppan
Suppan had a pretty consistent 2007 in my opinion. He's never been an Ace and never will be, but he will always get your 190-200 innings pitched and he we most likely get you 12 wins. Suppan finished '07 with a 12-12 record, amassing a 4.62 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 206 IP, making 30+ starts for the 9th consecutive season. Let's compare that to Sup's career numbers of 4.61 ERA and 1.43. Yeah, that's solid and consistent, a stablizing force that kept these guys going down the stretch.
Jeff had two bad months during his first contractual year with the Brewers. In June he carried a 7.68 ERA, going 2-2 while being the losing pitcher in the Justin Verlander No-Hitter. He followed up in July with a 5.29 ERA, but finshed August with a 3.90 and September with a 3.86, winning 4 of his last 6 starts... when they counted.
I expect an almost identical season from Suppan, where he struggles a couple of times during the middle of the season, but his location will come back and the groundballs will be gobbled up. With better defense at third, a contact pitcher like Jeff is going to flourish a little more. An error by this in field gives the opposing team a significant advantage when facing a guy like Suppan, but he gets the job done and in my opinion was a little overpaid, but worth the money.
Predictions: 32 starts, 14-12 record with a 4.78 ERA and 202 IP
The Kid: Yovani Gallardo
If you're a die hard Brewers fan like I am, you were waiting for this. You knew this kid was coming up and you knew he was going to be good, but you had to wait. You had to sit through Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas' struggles because of an innings limit and some AAA-seasoning. But then; "Sheets is hurt again," and the kid came alive.
In his first Major League start, Yo went 6.1 inning allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4, wile going 1-2 at the plate and doubling in a run in the second inning, AND taking a walk. And the rest of the year went that way too. The only blemish on Yo's resume last year was a rough couple of weeks in August when the team really fell apart. In one game he pitched 2.2 innings and gave up 11 runs. More times than naught, a guy gets removed from the game before allowing 11 runs, but the bullpen was taxed. He followed this outing with a 7 run 5.2 inning game, go scoreless outing in AZ and then a 5 run 3 inning affair, resulting in a 7.55 ERA for the season and ultimately raising his ERA by two full runs.
Gallardo went off in September, pitching 21 scoreless innings to start the month and finishing with a 1.36 ERA in 5 starts that month. He finished with a 9-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 17 starts and 110 IP, making his total for the year around 180 IP, leaving the door open for whatever he wants to do this year. Stud: that's exactly what he's going to be.
Predictions: 30 Starts, 17-7 record with a 3.20 ERA and 195 IP
He's the future ace of this staff if Ben says goodbye. I say if he doesn't sign another deal at the trade deadline, trade him for some serious pitching prospects in the Sox or Yankee system. Yo will get his respect in two years when they sign him and Ryan Braun.
Young Vet: Carlos Villanueva
I need to make one minor disclaimer. Carlos Villanueva is my favorite Brewer. Ever since he came up two years ago and mowed down the Reds without flinching, I've been obsessed with this guy getting the props he deserves. His composure just baffles me and I appreciate how humble he is and how he appears to be a veteran player at the age of 24. With that being said, Villanueva has earned himself a spot in this rotation because of what he was able to do for this team last year.
In 2006, Carlos appeared in 10 games, starting 6 of them to end the year. He finished with a 2-2 record with a respectable 3.69 ERA. At that time, he officially had established himself as the fifth starter. And then the Brewers signed Jeff Suppan and Villa went from a guaranteed starting spot to a roster competition. Well that veteran composure paid off as he pitched his ass off in spring training and earned himself a spot in the bullpen. He started off sluggish. In his first appearance against the Dodgers Carlos walked three straight batters, who would eventually score. Let's just say the new role wasn't very fun.
But then things changed. Two days later he pitched a scoreless inning against the Cubbies and two days after that he pitched a flawless 2/3 against the North Side Scrubs. What started out rough turned into a 7th inning specialist, switching back and forth with Matt Wise. He became legit on April 23rd when a marathon game in Chicago called for Carlos to pitch four innings: the 8th-11th, facing some of the best hitters out there. The result was a huge come from behind wind for the Crew, helping to catapult their confidence. In May he pitched 22 innings giving up only 6 runs and, yielding a 2.42 ERA, then a 2.41 in June and then he fell off.
Going out there every other day appeared to take a toll on him and his ERA ballooned to 6.75 in June and then 10.32 in August when he was sent down to AAA to get some rest, build arm strength, and get some fresh arms in the bullpen before the Sept call-up. When Carlos returned in September, he destroyed the competition. In six appearances, he pitched 31.2 innings, allowing only 7 runs yielding a 1.99 ERA for September, finishing the year with a 3.94 ERA and and 8-5 record. That's just as respectable as the most highly tauted prospect in the Brewers system.
He won't keep it up, and I can admit that, but he'll be serviceable in every way possible, more serviceable than the rest of the guys on this squad.
Prediction: 32 starts, 10-12 record with a 4.42 ERA with 75 innings. I really think I'm low balling him here, but I have a bad feeling he's going to struggle. I bought a shirt baring his name, which usually ruins that guy's career (Derrick Turnbow e.g. Bought his jersey on T'Bow bobblehead day and he gave up a 9th inning homer to lose that game.)
The Other Guy: Chris Bushuano
From the looks of it, we have a switch throwing pitcher with the 2nd best pickoff move in baseball. Claudio Vargas will be gone, unless Guillermo Mota gets back on the anabolic sauce, leaving Chris Capuano and Dave Bush to battle. Both of these guys had a rough year in '07, both carrying an over 5.00 ERA, though their records suggest otherwise. Bush went 12-10 with a 5.12 ERA, while Cappy was reduced to a 5-12 record with a 5.10 ERA.
Bush wasn't as good as his record suggests, but he's durable and he'll get the job done. He only had two months with an ERA under 5, June with a 3.51 and July with a 4.31. Only 8 of his 29 starts made it through the 7th inning and those that finished in the 6th weren't that pretty either. It seemed like every time the Brewers needed to stop the bleeding, Bush fell off the wagon, but after finally becoming his own man and not pitching to the batter's weaknesses, but his own strengths, he became a bit more consistent. He still has a ton to improve in my eyes. All I can hear from the non-chalant fan is that he's led this team in SOs and wins the last two years, but those numbers mean nothing, ESPECIALLY wins. Wins are the most deceiving stat ever. Hell Dice K won 15 games last year with a 4.40 ERA, while Schilling only won 8 games with a 3.87 ERA. I rest my case. Run support matters and Capuano was throwing against the #3 pitcher most of the time, while Bush got to face the rookie.
Chris Capuano fell apart last year. Starting the year 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA in the first 7 games raised Brewers' fans' expectations higher than ever before, and how could it not. But things went down after that as he lost 5 of his next 6 starts, but scattered in there was a 7 inning 2-run showing against Atlanta and a 7 inning, 3 hit, 2 run no decision against FL. In June was place on the DL with a strained groin, and when he came back things didn't get much better. The Brewers ended up losing 18 straight games when Chris pained, most of them were not is fault in July. There's even a 8 inning 1 run performance against Cincy that led to a no decision, or a 7 inning, 4 hit, 2 run performance that yielded another no decision.
What more can you ask for? Instead of showing support for their pitcher, the fans and media began to rag pretty hard on him, which may have led to his to demise, as the rest of the team, in August, where he pitched a 7.63 ERA. His last two appearances were reasonable going 10 innings and giving up 4 runs total.
I'm sorry, but I may be hanging on to the negatives of one and the positives of another, but looking at the numbers and the individual performances, Cappy is the guy we need out there. This is going to be the biggest battle in camp. Everything else is pretty much set or will be played out during the first three weeks of the regular season. Let's hope Ned and Mike come up with the right answer, and that answer is: Chris Capuano
The Ace: Ben Sheets
Ben Sheets is coming off yet another disappointing year even though he tied for the team lead with 12 wins. The numbers look great, 12-4 with a 3.82 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP with a trip to the All-Star game and a Pitcher of the Month Award in June. That sounds great! Why should anyone complain? How about only 141 innings pitched? The Brewers looked like beasts on Opening Day when Sheets pitched a complete-game 2-hit 7-1 victory over the LA Dodgers. And that continued for that entire month, but something wasn't right and it never really had time to get better.
The first thing people noticed about Sheets year was that his SO total was down significantly from years past. The curveball didn't have the bite it used to and he couldn't locate it. The upside was the emergence of his changeup which soon crept it's way into his game more and more. This resulted in a still very respectable 106/37 strikeout to walk ratio. But it happened, just like it has for the last three expensive contract years: the injury bug.
It's pretty annoying that it's happened to Sheets every year. Injuries always plague a team, and I can't blame Sheets that much. When you throw overhand curves like he and Wood do, you're risking a lot. At the end of April, Sheets left after 3 innings in Chicago because of a groin strain. He hung on for a while after that, but wasn't as dominating as he always has been before July 14th when he "sprained" his right middle finger and could no longer put proper pressure on the ball. That sprain turned out to be a partial tear of the tissue surrounding the tendon. He was lost until the end of August, at which time the Brewers fell apart, even with the valiant attempts of rookies Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra pitching well. Upon his return he went 2-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts, the last one in Houston only lasted an inning.
Consistency, where is the consistency? Prior to his contract season, Ben Sheets pitched 216, 220 and 237 innings for the Brewers and was essentially injury free. Funny thing is, he was always below .500 because of the team he was on. In 2004 he pitched 5 complete games! People say conditioning has been his problem, but there's no way. It's his style of pitching that is catching up to him and maybe he needs to find something to handle the wear and tear on his body. Something obviously changed this year because at the beginning of games this year, Sheets was immediately throwing 96-97, whereas in years past, that usually took and inning or two. I think progress is being made, but if he has to skip a start somewhere in there because something minor is bothering him, please give it to him!
Sheets is the ace of this staff and he's in a contract year. I'll be sad to see him have an amazing year and then bail on a team that's given him plenty of money for what really has been poor service on his part. Ben might be a loyal guy though, and he shouldn't be asking for too much more money. If he pitches 200 innings again, give him a 2 or three year contract. Cameron's cash will be available and Gwynn should be primed as a starter.
Prediciton: 30 starts, 16-8 record with a 3.92 ERA over 195.2 IP
(Don't ask me where I get these. I'm taking a shot in the dark based on the his past and the present state of the team)
The Number Two: Jeff Suppan
Suppan had a pretty consistent 2007 in my opinion. He's never been an Ace and never will be, but he will always get your 190-200 innings pitched and he we most likely get you 12 wins. Suppan finished '07 with a 12-12 record, amassing a 4.62 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 206 IP, making 30+ starts for the 9th consecutive season. Let's compare that to Sup's career numbers of 4.61 ERA and 1.43. Yeah, that's solid and consistent, a stablizing force that kept these guys going down the stretch.
Jeff had two bad months during his first contractual year with the Brewers. In June he carried a 7.68 ERA, going 2-2 while being the losing pitcher in the Justin Verlander No-Hitter. He followed up in July with a 5.29 ERA, but finshed August with a 3.90 and September with a 3.86, winning 4 of his last 6 starts... when they counted.
I expect an almost identical season from Suppan, where he struggles a couple of times during the middle of the season, but his location will come back and the groundballs will be gobbled up. With better defense at third, a contact pitcher like Jeff is going to flourish a little more. An error by this in field gives the opposing team a significant advantage when facing a guy like Suppan, but he gets the job done and in my opinion was a little overpaid, but worth the money.
Predictions: 32 starts, 14-12 record with a 4.78 ERA and 202 IP
The Kid: Yovani Gallardo
If you're a die hard Brewers fan like I am, you were waiting for this. You knew this kid was coming up and you knew he was going to be good, but you had to wait. You had to sit through Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas' struggles because of an innings limit and some AAA-seasoning. But then; "Sheets is hurt again," and the kid came alive.
In his first Major League start, Yo went 6.1 inning allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4, wile going 1-2 at the plate and doubling in a run in the second inning, AND taking a walk. And the rest of the year went that way too. The only blemish on Yo's resume last year was a rough couple of weeks in August when the team really fell apart. In one game he pitched 2.2 innings and gave up 11 runs. More times than naught, a guy gets removed from the game before allowing 11 runs, but the bullpen was taxed. He followed this outing with a 7 run 5.2 inning game, go scoreless outing in AZ and then a 5 run 3 inning affair, resulting in a 7.55 ERA for the season and ultimately raising his ERA by two full runs.
Gallardo went off in September, pitching 21 scoreless innings to start the month and finishing with a 1.36 ERA in 5 starts that month. He finished with a 9-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 17 starts and 110 IP, making his total for the year around 180 IP, leaving the door open for whatever he wants to do this year. Stud: that's exactly what he's going to be.
Predictions: 30 Starts, 17-7 record with a 3.20 ERA and 195 IP
He's the future ace of this staff if Ben says goodbye. I say if he doesn't sign another deal at the trade deadline, trade him for some serious pitching prospects in the Sox or Yankee system. Yo will get his respect in two years when they sign him and Ryan Braun.
Young Vet: Carlos Villanueva
I need to make one minor disclaimer. Carlos Villanueva is my favorite Brewer. Ever since he came up two years ago and mowed down the Reds without flinching, I've been obsessed with this guy getting the props he deserves. His composure just baffles me and I appreciate how humble he is and how he appears to be a veteran player at the age of 24. With that being said, Villanueva has earned himself a spot in this rotation because of what he was able to do for this team last year.
In 2006, Carlos appeared in 10 games, starting 6 of them to end the year. He finished with a 2-2 record with a respectable 3.69 ERA. At that time, he officially had established himself as the fifth starter. And then the Brewers signed Jeff Suppan and Villa went from a guaranteed starting spot to a roster competition. Well that veteran composure paid off as he pitched his ass off in spring training and earned himself a spot in the bullpen. He started off sluggish. In his first appearance against the Dodgers Carlos walked three straight batters, who would eventually score. Let's just say the new role wasn't very fun.
But then things changed. Two days later he pitched a scoreless inning against the Cubbies and two days after that he pitched a flawless 2/3 against the North Side Scrubs. What started out rough turned into a 7th inning specialist, switching back and forth with Matt Wise. He became legit on April 23rd when a marathon game in Chicago called for Carlos to pitch four innings: the 8th-11th, facing some of the best hitters out there. The result was a huge come from behind wind for the Crew, helping to catapult their confidence. In May he pitched 22 innings giving up only 6 runs and, yielding a 2.42 ERA, then a 2.41 in June and then he fell off.
Going out there every other day appeared to take a toll on him and his ERA ballooned to 6.75 in June and then 10.32 in August when he was sent down to AAA to get some rest, build arm strength, and get some fresh arms in the bullpen before the Sept call-up. When Carlos returned in September, he destroyed the competition. In six appearances, he pitched 31.2 innings, allowing only 7 runs yielding a 1.99 ERA for September, finishing the year with a 3.94 ERA and and 8-5 record. That's just as respectable as the most highly tauted prospect in the Brewers system.
He won't keep it up, and I can admit that, but he'll be serviceable in every way possible, more serviceable than the rest of the guys on this squad.
Prediction: 32 starts, 10-12 record with a 4.42 ERA with 75 innings. I really think I'm low balling him here, but I have a bad feeling he's going to struggle. I bought a shirt baring his name, which usually ruins that guy's career (Derrick Turnbow e.g. Bought his jersey on T'Bow bobblehead day and he gave up a 9th inning homer to lose that game.)
The Other Guy: Chris Bushuano
From the looks of it, we have a switch throwing pitcher with the 2nd best pickoff move in baseball. Claudio Vargas will be gone, unless Guillermo Mota gets back on the anabolic sauce, leaving Chris Capuano and Dave Bush to battle. Both of these guys had a rough year in '07, both carrying an over 5.00 ERA, though their records suggest otherwise. Bush went 12-10 with a 5.12 ERA, while Cappy was reduced to a 5-12 record with a 5.10 ERA.
Bush wasn't as good as his record suggests, but he's durable and he'll get the job done. He only had two months with an ERA under 5, June with a 3.51 and July with a 4.31. Only 8 of his 29 starts made it through the 7th inning and those that finished in the 6th weren't that pretty either. It seemed like every time the Brewers needed to stop the bleeding, Bush fell off the wagon, but after finally becoming his own man and not pitching to the batter's weaknesses, but his own strengths, he became a bit more consistent. He still has a ton to improve in my eyes. All I can hear from the non-chalant fan is that he's led this team in SOs and wins the last two years, but those numbers mean nothing, ESPECIALLY wins. Wins are the most deceiving stat ever. Hell Dice K won 15 games last year with a 4.40 ERA, while Schilling only won 8 games with a 3.87 ERA. I rest my case. Run support matters and Capuano was throwing against the #3 pitcher most of the time, while Bush got to face the rookie.
Chris Capuano fell apart last year. Starting the year 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA in the first 7 games raised Brewers' fans' expectations higher than ever before, and how could it not. But things went down after that as he lost 5 of his next 6 starts, but scattered in there was a 7 inning 2-run showing against Atlanta and a 7 inning, 3 hit, 2 run no decision against FL. In June was place on the DL with a strained groin, and when he came back things didn't get much better. The Brewers ended up losing 18 straight games when Chris pained, most of them were not is fault in July. There's even a 8 inning 1 run performance against Cincy that led to a no decision, or a 7 inning, 4 hit, 2 run performance that yielded another no decision.
What more can you ask for? Instead of showing support for their pitcher, the fans and media began to rag pretty hard on him, which may have led to his to demise, as the rest of the team, in August, where he pitched a 7.63 ERA. His last two appearances were reasonable going 10 innings and giving up 4 runs total.
I'm sorry, but I may be hanging on to the negatives of one and the positives of another, but looking at the numbers and the individual performances, Cappy is the guy we need out there. This is going to be the biggest battle in camp. Everything else is pretty much set or will be played out during the first three weeks of the regular season. Let's hope Ned and Mike come up with the right answer, and that answer is: Chris Capuano
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Position Analysis: 25-Man Roster
In lieu of Big Rygg over at the Brewer nation beginning his Projection Series prior to the pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought that I'd do my own type of projections/analysis. Over the next week or so I will be posting daily on all of the positions on the team, probably neglecting the catcher position for the most part because of the extensive report I did on Kendall a little over a week ago.
The schedule will go as follows:
Today: 25-Man Roster
Tomorrow: Starting Pitching
Tuesday: Relief Pitching
Wednesday: Catchers
Thursday: First Base
Friday: Second Base
Saturday: Third Base
Sunday: Shortstop
Monday: Outfield
Tuesday: Coaching
Wednesday: Prospects
This is probably going to be a difficult schedule to stick to considering research is in full swing, but with Super Tuesday imminent, it should be pretty easy to get ahead of the game.
25-Man Roster
If you refer to the Brewer Nation blog in the side bar, the first post you'll see is Big Rygg's projections about who will be on the active roster on opening day in the North Side of Chicago. There is no doubt in my mind that the Brewers will be carrying a maximum of 12 pitchers coming in, but with possible roster moves pending, I would not be surprised to see only 11 pitchers to start the year. This will allow for plenty of platooning in the outfield and more left-handed bats on the bench.
Pitchers:
SP Ben Sheets
SP Jeff Suppan
SP Yovani Gallardo
SP Carlos Villanueva
SP Chris Capuano
LRP Dave Bush
MRP Guillermo Mota
MRP Salomon Torres
MRP David Riske
MRP Brian Shouse
SU Derrick Turnbow
CP Eric Gagne
I've presented 12 pitchers here, neglecting the obvious future sacrificial lamb that is Claudio Vargas. It is my firm belief that Cappy or Bushy will be moved with Vargas prior to the season's start. This would bring us to 11 pitchers, of which I believe may be what we see to start the year, but if the 12th pitcher comes in there are three viable options: Seth McClung, Manny Parra and Randy Choate. Both Parra and Choate are lefties, while Parra is a starter, Choate and McClung are both mid-relief.
My thinking is that Bush is going to get moved with Vargas and a low-level prospect for, ideally, a couple of mid-level LHP prospects and maybe even a lower catching prospect. Don't be surprised if someone like Zach Jackson or Tim Dillard get thrown into the deal because they need a shot somewhere else. Nevertheless, the move will happen unless the injury bug hits.
Whomever gets tossed aside, I think that McClung currently has the one up on everyone else. He had a phenomenal September with the Crew, giving up only 2 ER in 8.2 innings, while striking out 10. If you watched any of these games, you would have noticed that McClung took a little off his fastball and breaking pitchers, giving him more control of both pitches. It's okay if you only throw 96 MPH instead of 100 MPH if it means you can paint that corner. Parra needs some more seasoning at AAA-Nashville. He may be a little old, 25, to think that he needs seasoning, but a rotator cuff tear in 2005 put him out for about a year. It won't hurt to get him some more innings. He did well last year, and has a ton of options left, making him the perfect depth in the minors if something happens to our starters, which it always does. Choate is a 31 year old lefty who has played for the Yankees and D'backs and has options left. His numbers aren't impressive, I'll get into them on Tuesday.
Position Players:
C Jason Kendall
C Mike Rivera
1B Prince Fielder
2B Rickie Weeks
3B Bill Hall
SS JJ Hardy
UT Craig Counsell
UT Joe Dillon
OF Ryan Braun
OF Corey Hart
OF Gabe Gross
OF Tony Gwynn Jr.
OF Gabe Kapler
You'll immediately notice that Mike Cameron is not on this list because of his 25 game suspension, which opens the door for Gwynn Jr. and Kapler. Joe Dillon can also be considered an outfielder, giving him a big edge. While some people don't have him anywhere on this roster, I almost guarantee we'll see him this year. Gwynn or Kapler will get sent down upon the arrival of Mike Cameron, and I don't think it's set in stone who that will be yet. The first 25 games of the year will harbor some competition, which I gather will be a good thing to get the year started. I think Kapler will edge it out because he'll bring some additional veteran leadership, but I want to see him play before I really stand on that forum.
Rivera may be the biggest surprise to some, but I think he's paid enough dues and Eric Munson is garbage. While Kendall is going to be a workhorse behind the plate, I don't think Munson's left handed bat is better against righties than Rivera's right handed bat especially since Munson is a career .214 hitter. Munson just offers a little more pop, but not that much.
If there's an extra roster spot available, I expect to see homegrown Vinny Rottino. He plays hard enough to earn a spot anyways. He's right in line with Dillon except he's also a catcher with some speed, ala the young Kendall. I'd love to see the kid get a shot.
Welp, that's all folks. After running it down, I don't think we've made moves to improve this team, but we have a much better team with more experience and a different mindset. Those things are a breath of fresh air considering some of the teams we've had in the past.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Sean Casey, the bench and Tony Gwynn Jr.
So originally when I read that Sean Casey was going to the Red Sox this year, I wasn't really upset or concerned in anyway because Casey plays first base. But I did get upset when I found out that Casey will only be receiving $800,000 this year. Wow, that's it?! Listen, I know that the Brewers don't need a first baseman, but Casey signed to play the third string. How many lefty bats does this Brewer team have.
I'm not saying we should have signed him, I'm just saying that paying a guy less than a mil to sit on your bench and bat .280 instead of .220 like Craig Counsell, is more worth the cash. Counsell is making $2.8 mil this year to drag this team down with solid defense and lack luster plate appearances. It's one thing to give a utility player his money, but it's another if that player is one of the two lefties on your bench.
I think the bench of this team is its weakest point. While guys like Gross and Gwynn will be pretty decent players, there is zero pop on the pine, ESPECIALLY for an NL team. Situational hitting is going to be non-existent unless Tony Gwynn is called out there to bunt or Counsell is asked to take one to the opposite field to get a run in, and that's provided they give Gwynn the spot he deserves.
I'm a firm believer in Tony Gwynn Jr. I think he brings a different kind of element to this team. He's a great clubhouse guy, who with Prince and Rickie make you want to watch baseball and see what stupid stuff they'll do together. On top of that, you get a guy who will do anything to get on base, whether it's bunt, slash or take one to the mouth. He's going to give you just as many HRs as Jason Kendall, but he's going to give you that lefty option off the bench and more importantly, a pinch runner for guys like Prince or JJ when things go awry in the later innings and you need that last run. Those are things that get an NL team over the hump.
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