Position Analysis: Relief Pitching

I need an editor.  It takes me a long time to put these things together in the morning at and after work.  When I'm finally done with the research, I find myself inept to editing my own work.  In fact, it takes a day or two to add a word I forgot, or re-write a sentence where I was writing something while thinking of two other things, resulting in a broken and misleading sentence.  I guess I'll get around to touching up some of this stuff.  On to the bullpen.

Long Relief:  Dave Bush

I know a lot of people don't agree with me on this, but Cappy is not a reliever and Bush played most of his college career at the back end of the Wake Forest bullpen, saving games in tight spots.  Each only have four major league relief appearances, and Bush is the clear front runner for filling that void most effectively.  He's got a rubber arm that can go 2-3 innings every other day or an inning for a few days straight.  I'm not a Dave Bush fan, but this role suits him and is exactly where he belongs on this major league roster; that is a long relief role and spot starts during injury problems.

Predictions:  52 games, 5-7 record with a 4.90 ERA

Right Handed Relief:  Guillermo Mota

Good Lord!  Get off the sauce sir!  Gui is a 34 year old right handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic who was once a dominating force in the major leagues during the early 2000's.  A former shortstop in the Mets organization, Mota was claimed in the Rule 5 Draft by the then Montreal Expos and turned into a solid reliever, who took a few years to hone his craft.  It was at this time that he moved to the Dodgers where he found great success, pitching  4.15, 1.97 and 2.14 ERAs from 2002-2004 as the set up man for Eric Gagne.

Mota has an A++ fastball at 98 MPH, but BP says it doesn't move and is the only pitch he's able to control.  Nobody seems to be impressed with this guy, specifically because he's injury prone carrying shoulder and elbow problems.  He pitched in only 34, 18 and 52 games the last three seasons and his numbers were only reasonable in '06 when he went 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings.  But this is surrounded by an ERA of about 6 for the years surrounding it including a 50 game suspension to the start the year for drug violations.

Predictions:  47 Appearances with a 2-4 record and a 5.12 ERA

Work Horse:  Solomon Torres

Torres is getting up there in age, 36, but if there's one thing he's known for its pitching a lot of innings.  Excluding last year in which he spent some time on the DL, Torres pitched 121, 92, 94, and 93 innings starting in 2002 posting a 4.76, 2.64, 2.76, and 3.28 ERA respectively.  Torres was a highly sought after prospect at one time but faltered majorly in his early years, only to be reborn.  Torres hung up his MLB tights in 1997 and played some semi-pro leagues and then in Korea in 2001 before returning to the Pirates in 2002 and become one of the better set-up men in the NL.

Scouting on Torres says that he doesn't have the movement on his ball that he used to, but relies on a change of speeds and locations to keep hitters on their toes.  It sounds like a Matt Wise with a slider, and I'm okay with that.  The Brewers should limit his innings with a guy who has seem so much action.  This should save him some shoulder troubles and the bullpen appears to be quite versatile.

Predictions:  65 Appearances with a 6-2 record and 3.88 ERA

Potential Surprise:  David Riske

The Brewers obtained David Riske on the unrestricted free agent market after one year in Kansas City.  What people fail to remember is that Riske spent the first six years of his career with Cleveland Indians, wowing fans for 4 of those years with ERAs of 1.98, 2.29, 3.72, and 3.10 in 27, 74, 77, and 72 innings respectively.  From there he split one year with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, pitching quite well along the way, amassing a 3.88 ERA in 41 appearances.  

The following year he signed a one year deal with the Kansas City Royals.  He finished the year with a 2.45 ERA in 69.2 innings while striking out 52 batters.  After a rough April where he pitched himself into a 6.97 ERA, he returned flawlessly starting in May and moving into June.  In 18 appearances he gave up only 9 hits and zero runs in 15.1 innings before giving up a run in Philly on June 8th.  He continued to finish strong, ending June with a 1.42 ERA, July with a 1.46, August with a 3.09 and September with a 2.89.  

Now that's some quality numbers and I expect it to stay exactly the same.  I think Riske is one of those guys that just knows how to pitch.  BP tends to disagree with me because his SO rate is on the decline and HR numbers are on the rise, but they have yet to comment on his 2007 season, which I imagine will have them shut their mouths a bit.  When's the last time the Brewers had a forkball pitcher anyways?

Lefty Specialist?: Brian Shouse

Brian surprised a lot of people last year, making everyone call Mike Maddux a career resurrector again.  In 2007 Shouse appeared in 73! games (can you say side arm?) going 1-1 with a 3.02 ERA.  He started the year out as a left handed batter specialist only too find a way to get the right handed batters out to, though his ERA versus lefties was significantly lower: 1.90 to 4.13.  Shouse did his job and did it well.  

Brian was pretty much the only bullpen guy getting the job done last August, pitching a 3.09 ERA and a flawless July to preceded it.   If he can "stay low" as he said he needs to do to keep the ball at an awkward plain, expect similar numbers this year, but likely a bit of a drop off unless Yost sticks to the lefty.  Perhaps you may see better numbers.

Predictions:  74 appearances and  2-1 record with a 3.50 ERA

Fire and Walks:  Derrick Turnbow

I feel bad.  I get nervous every time DT walks to the mound.  It's just scary.  There's no grey area with Derrick.  It's either flourish or flounder and that usually starts with the first batter.  If he walks a guy on four pitches... Look out!  Yost didn't really figure that out last year.  Hopefully that leash will be a little shorter this year.

After losing his closing role to Francisco Cordero in 2006, Turnbow was poised to be the 8th inning set-up guy in '07 and started out phenomenally.  CoCoBow was the best 2-inning finish to a game in the league for a while, but then things started falling.  Turnbow was solid in his first 16 appearances going 15 innings with a 1.76 ERA, but a 7.84 ERA in May took him down a notch.  He returned quite well in June with a 1.93 ERA, but fell off again in July with a 6.10 ERA, mostly due to a 4 run 1 out affair at St. Louis.  But then a 2.92 in August, where he only had one appearance in which he gave up a run, even though it was 4 runs.  

September was when the fans booed.  DT gave up 9 runs in 12 appearances and 8.2 innings.  But then people neglect the fact that he he pitched 7.1 scoreless innings during that time.  Look guys, he's inconsistent and we know that.  When you have crazy mechanics like DT does, you're going to have bad outings, until you fix them.  The thing that has to be done is, Mike Maddux needs to see the problem, go out there and fix it or just yank the guy.  He has A++ stuff when it's on target.  There's nobody in the league who can hit the slider if he can paint the corner with it.  Especially if he put a 99 MPH fastball on the other corner before you throw it.

Get off his back.  Stop booing, and just be quiet.  This isn't New York for crying out loud, where if you don't hit the game winning homer, you're useless.  A 4.63 ERA looks bad, but is blemished by 3 or 4 really bad outings.  Cut him some slack.

Predictions:  58 Appearances with a 4-6 record and 4.01 ERA

The Closer:  Eric Gagne

Hit or miss.  That's all I can say.  I would be lying if I said I'm super excited about this signing.  I was initially just because of namesake, and then I really thought about it.  You can't complain about getting a guy who has the consecutive saves record (84), but you can worry.  Gagne has been injury prone ever since his 2005 season and has only pitched in 70 games over the last 3 years, 54 of which came last year.  The problem:  a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow in 2005, which required surgery and a herniated disc in his back in 2006.

But there's hope.  Before jumping to Boston, Gagne threw 33 innings for a 2.16 ERA, 16 saves and 29 Ks.  The set-up role in Boston, or perhaps the city, or perhaps this back didn't do him any good.  He played in 20 games and threw for a 6.75 ERA with 22 Ks in 19 innings.  I think he can still do it, but worry and keep worrying until the end of May.  If his ERA is below 3.50, beware.  He's back and then we'll have to pay him his money.

Predictions:  62 games with 42 saves in 50 chances and a 2.99 ERA

The Weaknesses

This team is right hand heavy in the bullpen and in the rotation, which leads to a couple of things.  1) The potential for moves during the season to get a lefty.  2) Fewer opportunities for Yost to try and play the brain game and changing pitchers like he's Tony LaRussa.  3)  More opportunities for Yost to leave his ailing pitcher on the mound for too long, which has always been his biggest problem.

The Strengths

Power.  Lots and lots of power.  But they have to be used properly.  Start with Riske, then put in Turnbow.  Or start with Shouse and then throw Mota.  Force these guys to adjust constantly.  Don't let them see Mota and Turnbow back to back ever.  That gives these guys a shot to adjust to the fastball and and maybe sit on that slider.