I want to take a solid look at Bush's numbers and see if I buy into all of this insane talk about Bush DESERVING his starting job. This takes priority over the position analysis. We'll go Date, Opposing Team, Opposing Pitcher (Career ERA), Bush's line, Game Result
APRIL
6th CHC Rich Hill (4.39) 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H 1 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 3 Cubs 9 Bush gives up a 6 run 1st
11th @FL Sergio Mitre (5.36) 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 5 Marlins 2 Crew scores first and take s 3-0 by the 6th
17th @CIN Matt Belisle (4.85) 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 11 Bush allows 3 over the first 2, leaves with tie
22nd HOU Roy Oswalt (3.07) 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K (W)
Crew 4 Astros 3 Bush pitched a gem, I was there. Gave up 3 in the 9th.
26th @HOU C. Sampson (4.05) 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 1 Astros 10 Bush gives up 4 in the 5th and 6th
One Quality Start in April: Pitches into the 7th once
2-3 with Bush as starter
MAY
3rd PIT Tom Gorzelanny (4.04) 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Pirates 4 Bush gives up 4 in the 7th while leading 2-0
8th WSH J. Simontacchi (5.09) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 4 Bush leaves up 4-3 in mid-7 after giving up 2 runs
14th @PHI Jamie Moyer (4.21) 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Philllies 8 Bush leaves with 70 pitches
19th MIN Scott Baker (4.71) 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 2 Twins 5 Bush pitches into the 8th, but gives up 5
25th @SD Greg Maddux (3.11) 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 6 Padres 8 Bush gives up 5 in the 5 and leaves down 7-0
30th ATL Tim Hudson (3.51) 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 6 K (ND)
Crew 5 Braves 9 Bush's gem gets tainted by 7 run 8th
Too many games left out of reach taints two quality starts
1-5 in May when Bush starts
JUNE
4th CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K (L)
Crew 2 Cubs 7 Bush explodes in 7th, giving up 3 w/o an out
10th TEX V. Padilla (4.25) 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 9 Rangers 6 Bush gives up 2 in the first and leaves 2 on in 5th
16th MIN Boof Bonser (4.77) 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 5 Twins 2 Bush pitches well and gets yanked with one on
23rd KC Brian Bannister (3.95) 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 7 KC 1 Bush pitches gem against worst team in baseball
27th HOU Borkowski 2.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB (W)
Crew 6 Astros 3 Bush pitches 2 innings in relief in extra innings
There's your freebie win for the team lead.
Quality month even with few innings
Crew goes 4-1 with Bush, 3-1 with starts
JULY
1st CHC Jason Marquis (4.56) 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K (L)
Crew 1 Cubs 5 Bush puts Crew behind 4-0 after 3
6th @WSH Mike Bacsik (5.46) 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K (W)
Crew 6 Nats 2 Pitches gem against another awful team
16th @ARI Micah Owings (4.30) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 K (W)
Crew 4 D'Backs 3 Bush gives up one early, but Crew answer w/ 3
21st SF Tim Lincecum (4.00) 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K (L)
Crew 0 Giants 8 Gives up 3 in first 4, but Lincecum throws gem
26th @CIN B. Livingston (5.27) 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 5 Reds 6 Leaves down 4-3 leaving 1 on after giving up 2 in 5th
31st NYM Aaron Sele (4.61) 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K (W)
Crew 4 Mets 2 Bush gets another freebie after a walkoff by Jenks
An okay month, but nothing to call home about.
That's 2 relief wins... let's keep talking about how he leads this team
Crew goes 3-3 when Bush pitches, 2-3 when he starts.
AUGUST
4th PHI Cole Hamels (3.68) 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Crew 6 Phillies 5 Gordon blows save in 8th saving Bush a loss
10th @HOU J. Jennings (4.91) 6 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 5 Astros 4 Bush gives up lead in the 5th and leaves with tie.
16th STL Adam Wainwright (3.61) 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K (L)
Crew 0 Cardinals 8 Bush pitches well, but Turnbow gives up 5 in 9th
21st @ARI L. Hernandez (4.25) 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 SO, (W)
Crew 7 D'Backs 4 Leaves with 2-2 tie. Crew scores 5 in 7th.
26th @SF T. Lincecum (4.00) 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 SO (ND)
Crew 4 Giants 5 Bush blows up in the 7th and is saved by Shouse leaving a tie
Another mediocre month, but fewer losses because of comebacks.
Crew goes 3-2 when Bush starts thanks to some heroics.
He can beat Arizona and Washington consistently 4-0, but not SF.
SEPTEMBER
1st PIT Shane Youman (5.13) 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K (W)
Crew 12 Pirates 3 Bush pitches gem, but is backed by an 8-1 lead in 3rd
7th @CIN Bronson Arroyo (4.22) 1.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 K (L)
Crew 4 Reds 11 Bush gives up 6 in first and 2 in second
12th @PIT T. Gorzelanny (4.04) 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K (ND)
Crew 4 Pirates 7 Bush taxes the bullpen again leaving down 4-1
19th @ HOU Juan Gutierrez (5.91) 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Astros 5 Bush pitches well, but gets no support. Lose in 10.
24th STL A. Wainwright (3.61) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K (W)
Crew 13 Cardinals 5 Bush gives up 5, but starts with a 4-0 and 9-2 lead
29th SD Chris Young (3.68) 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K (ND)
Crew 4 Padres 3 Bush is outpitched by Young, but Hoffman blows save
An inconsistent month to say the least, with tough luck and good luck
Crew goes 3-3 with him on the mound, but the long term effects of pitching 1, 4 and 6 innings caught this bullpen at a real bad time.
Okay, let's look at the totals.
Record when Bush starts: 14-17
When Bush pitches: 16-17
Average ERA of opposing starter: 4.49
Bush's W/L against above .500: 3-4
Team's W/L against above .500: 5-6
Bush's W/L against below .500: 9-6
Team's W/L against below .500: 11-11
Quality Starts: 14/31 (45%)
Innings pitched/Start: 6.00 IP/Start
Hits/Start: 6.93 Hits/Start
Walks and Hits per Nine: 8.37
Someone please tell me how this makes him a shoe in. I'm clearly pretty adamant about this being the wrong thing to do, and it'll take some hard evidence and me turning down the stubborness to open my eyes to this guy as legit.
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5 comments:
Excellent research my friend. I appreciate your efforts. Keep in mind that when I personally praise Bush, it is based more an instincts than facts. I believe his potential to become a consistently productive pitcher has not been realized yet....and the fact thathe is young to the mound relative to other pitchers is encouraging. Also, it is striking to know how many great pitchers experienced rough patches their first few seasons before becoming smart pitchers...OK, that's all rhetoric.
But, if you compare the numbers you listed to other NL #4 or #5 pitchers, Bush will qualify as above average. It's certain that he doesn't belong in a rotation as a #2 or #3....but that would be comparring apples and oranges...
akittel...i got this email from Eric...He explains Bush's value way better than i could..I base my decision more on instinct and watching him pitch than anything scientific...so objectively, my proof is all superstitious..
Steve,
When I talk about #3 or #4 starters I am referring not necessarily to the opening 5 games rotation, but rather the ranking on a team. As in, saying Bush was either a low-end #3 or a tremendous #4 is saying that if we looked at all of the third-best pitchers on NL teams, he would be towards the bottom of the 16, however if we looked at all of the fourth-best pitchers on NL teams, he would be #1 or #2.
My system is not 100 % perfect because there are many human factors that it does not/cannot account for. What I do love about it, though, is that it levels the field of play between those in different circumstances/with different run rupport/different bullpens, etc.
The #3 starters that were higher than Bush -
1) John Maine, +35
2) Carlos Zambrano, +35 (yes, Carlos Zambrano)
3) Kyle Kendrick, +34
4) Noah Lowry, +34
5) Aaron Cook, +33
6) Tim Lincecum, +33
7) Shawn Hill, +30
8) Livan Hernandez, +29
9) Chris Young/Jamie Moyer/Rich Hill/Dave Bush, +28
So, we see that of the 12 SP's who ranked as #3 starters, Bush was tied for last. However, when we look at #4 SP's, meaning you have a +15 to +26, Bush would have been tied with Hill/Moyer/Young and slightly ahead of Kyle Lohse and Micah Owings as the top #4 in the NL.
Eric
In a message dated 1/14/2008 1:09:52 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, etan8_today@hotmail.com writes:
Kaboooom brother....thanks for the explanation.....You caused another question..You talk about #3 and #4 starters....Besides opening day and the occasional adjustment during the year to like match up a lefty against a left handed lineup....what's the big deal about place in a rotation?
A few more starts? A King's crown?
Also...it is rare, but nonetheless fun to look at pitchers who give up hit after hit and walk after walk, but like Pete Vukovich in 1982....performed magic delays...tyeing his shoes...scratching his balls...running into the clubhouse to change shoes....and somehow he recorded a WHIP of something like 1.33 and an era under 4.00.....Maybe Chang Ming Wong had those kind of numbers in 2006 when he won 18 games.
Anyway, this number crunch seems like a financial conspiracy to prove a players worth during free agent trials....instead of simply asking...does he win or not?
but that's too conservative and lacks liberal sympathy for factors...factors....and more factors...
The only real gripe I have about the numbers revolution is that it is no revolution at all. They were messing with defensive range numbers back in the 19th century....How would Bill James explain the Pedro Borbon curse on teh Reds and it's removal prior to the 1990 World Series?
Old debate of science versus religion....seems like science is winning....but how do we predict no hitters and perfect games?
All the best my friend...I appreciate your efficiency rankings and explanations and I will be referencing them in my arguments for Dave Bush...Steve
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Seidburns850@aol.com
Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2008 12:48:30 -0500
Subject: Re: Recent Brewer Post
To: etan8_today@hotmail.com
Steve,
I write for MVN at the MLB-Sabermetrics blog called 'Statistically Speaking.' I have posted the 2007 Analysis of my SP-Effectiveness Model for both NL and AL, but since you were kind enough to e-mail me I will do my best to explain it here.
Basically, my goal in developing the system was to take into account the following variables -
1) W-L Records do not tell us anything because you can pitch bad and win or pitch great and lose
2) Certain teams have better bullpens and so they blow less leads than other teams, which cost SP wins
3) Certain pitchers get a ton of run support and others do not, resulting in good stats but bad W-L record
4) There is a big difference between a pitcher who gets 100 IP and is called up or gets injured halfway through the season and one who gets 100 IP while stinking the whole season.
My system takes all of those factors into account and uses a Weighted Points scale to add or subtract points based on how well you did in certain areas.
The statistics I use are - Games Started, Innings Pitched, Innings Pitched per Game (separates the injured/called up from the bad), Cheap Wins (win when a pitcher was bad), Tough Losses (losses when he was good), Legit Wins (wins he deserved to get), Legit Losses (losses he deserved to get), Adjusted Quality Starts (my invented stat which is a Quality Start but instead of only 6+ IP with 3 or less ER, this also includes 7.2+ IP and 4 or less ER), WHIP, K:BB ratio (some guys are not strikeout pitchers but it doesn't mean they cannot have control - Maddux had 104 k in 34 starts but only walked 25), AQND (games where he gets an AQS but does not get a decision - as in he pitched well enough to win but the offense/bullpen was not good), and Complete Games/Shutouts (you get extra points since they are so rare.
I am going to be posting every 2007 AL and NL pitcher and how they fared in my system/what it means in a PDF file this upcoming week, so check back to MVN-Sabermetrics tomorrow afternoon to be able to download it.
If we look at Dave Bush's 2007 season, this is what we get:
a) He made 30+ starts, so +5
b) He went between 150 and 199 IP, so +3
c) He had 0 Cheap wins, so 0
d) He had 2 Tough losses, so +4
e) 12 legitimate wins, so +24
f) 8 legitimate losses, so -16
g) His AQS % was under 50 %, so -3
h) Between 5.5 and 5.99 IP/gm, so +3
i) WHIP between 1.30 and 1.40, so 0
j) K:BB above 3.00, so +5
k) 3 AQ-ND's, so +3
l) 0 complete games or shutouts, so 0
When we add all of those numbers up, he gets a +28. The league average in the NL, based on the numbers of the 69 Starting Pitchers that qualified, was +26, meaning Dave Bush's 2007 campaign was slightly above average.
Using my scale of effectiveness points to Pitcher Role, we see that a score between +27 and +35 corresponds to a #3 pitcher, whereas +15 to +26 means you are a #4.
That tells us that, in 2007, Bush was above average, that he was only average when it came to being a #3 starter, since other #3's were higher, but that if he was a #4 on a team, probably what he should be, he would have been the best #4 in the NL.
Let's look at the stats and what they mean to make sense of it. In terms of durability, he made 30 or more starts, which is great. On the innings pitched side, the league average was between 5.1 and 5.2, and Bush averaged between 5.2 and 6.0 IP, so he gets some points there, as well as some points for getting between 150 and 199 total IP. He had 182, in 31 starts, so if he made all 35 starts, he would have been over 200 IP, giving him even more points.
In terms of his W-L Record, all of his wins were deserved, and 2 of his 10 losses should have been wins. If we adjust his W-L by giving him Wins for every Tough Loss, and Losses for every Cheap Win, he was not 12-10 this year, he was 14-8, exactly what Smoltz was.
There were 3 games he should have won due to pitching well but not getting much help.
He had a very high K:BB ratio, only walking 41 batters, but he gave up so many (211) hits that his WHIP was higher than it needed to be.
________________________________________________________________________________________
If he brings his WHIP down from 1.38 to 1.28, gets to 200-219 IP, maintains his K:BB ratio, and can average at least 6.0 IP/gm as opposed to the 5.88 from this year (very close), his numbers would jump from a +28 in 2007 to a +33, meaning he would be one of the most effective #3 SP in the NL.
Eric
Those numbers are interesting, but not ultimately convincing to me just yet because it doesn't take into a account that two of his wins were in relief so he does not compare to John Smoltz. He actually goes 12-8 according to those numbers. Additionally, he does not take into consideration loss that should have occurred, which would take away I believe one 1 win and add three additional losses, so minus 8 total, putting him at +20, an average 4 starter, which is right or even +16 if you consider the 2 relief wins which were only 1 and 2 inning affairs.
Regardless, Villanueva is a better pitcher with a higher ceiling. Chris Capuano gets dogged for a bad back end of a year.
I don't doubt that Bush is in the upper echelon of #5 starters, but you would have to put Capuano there too. This shouldn't a done deal. The guy who pitches the best and the most consistent should get the job. It shouldn't be handed to a guy who is an average 4 starter.
akittel....and I think what you said is exactly what Melvin and Yost and Maddux said was gonna happen....It's gonna be a hoe down in spring training for that number five spot...
Villanueva already won the number 4spot with last year's September performance..
I agree with you about Capuano getting dogged in the media....He is such a smart guy and a great teamate and competitor and actually posted better numbers than Bush last year in alot of ways... I am totally confused by his troubles because he still throws in the upper 80's and gets by with smoke and mirrors aka that impressive change-up...
I'd be happy if Capuano regains some mastery this spring and Bush is equally as good, but sent to the bullpen to inherit Villanueva's last year roll...or traded for a lefty bat..
Melvin has said that Bush is going to have to pitch pretty horrible to not make the rotation. That's why I'm so frustrated. It's almost like they're saying it's not a competition and Vargas and Cappy are fair trade game no matter what.
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